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S26 Ranking the Survivors (Caramoan)


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#1

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Feb 10, 2013 @ 7:19 PM

Let me commit to being horribly wrong, for everyone to see for all time.

First, some general thoughts. Whenever they are outnumbered, I am going to rank returnees behind the new players. The anti-returnee bias in S25 was unbelievably strong (and Skupin still made it to the finale,) that I can’t believe it will magically disappear for this season. I am disappointed that they are back to two tribes, but since this is Fans vs. Favorites 2, I can understand why. [Though, one tribe of fans, one tribe of favorites, and one tribe of second-chancers (first to be voted off,) would have been cool - if 2-1 for returnees.] And finally, for the first few rankings of the new players, I’ll have to go with the misogynistic pattern that Survivor has established - that even the women who play Survivor fall into reliably: Young dude> older dude> young woman > older woman. All in the name of “challenge strength.” (Seriously, unless someone is off-the-charts obnoxious/weird : Peter, the yoga guy, in Marquesas, or gets injured/sick (Jessie in Africa, Kourtney in One World, Zane in the Philippines,) this is a pretty reliable guide.)

Bikal - The Returnees (favorites? yeah, right.)

Two groups of three and four singles. But, Andrea and Francesca don’t really have a reason to work together even though they were on the same initial tribe, unless it is to get rid of Phillip, because he was on their initial tribe. And really, while I can imagine Dawn and John mending fences, I don’t see them bonding (long term) with Brandon.

This’ll be easier to to backwards

10. Secret Agent Pink Underwear. Older, not really an asset in challenges, and has two players likely against him as soon as they hit the beach. Unless I’m wrong about Andrea, (in which case she’s planning on using her Rob M. guide to playing Survivor, and trying to take him to the end to be her ... Phillip.)

9. Francesca. Older woman, unknown quantity in challenges. If she and Andrea DO manage to get rid of Phillip, she might be seen as the more evictable part of a “pair” within whatever alliance might form.

8. John. The greatest challenge liability on the tribe. But, probably has Dawn and Brandon in his corner.

7. Dawn. Older woman. Reasonably good at challenges, but everyone that follows is probably better.

6. Malcolm. The other returnees have no idea who he is. He ought to survive long enough to play his social game, but his outsider status within this group could hurt him if Bikal has, say, two quick trips to tribal.

5. Brandon. While a challenge asset in the first few “weeks,” Brandon is an easy boot when the controlling alliance has to make a decision. (Before the merge! Because Brandon is not so good with the secret keeping.)

4. Corinne. I don’t remember Gabon all that well, but as I recall she was competent in challenges and loyal to her core alliance. Plus, if her personality “gets away from her,” she’d make a good goat.

3. Brenda. I think she played a pretty decent game in Nicaragua, and if it had rained really hard three days earlier she might not have been betrayed by Quit-onka.

2. Erik. Fit and with a reputation such that no one will take him seriously as a strategic threat. (He keeps that idol, and there’s a good chance he gets the “Fabio-win” before Fabio does.)

1. Andrea. The only member of Rob’s sheeples that seemed to not want to be there (but, could count.) Smart, funny, and sneaky-strong. Watch that stair challenge again, she forced Rob and Grant to work their hardest.

Gota - the newbies

I’m not going to watch all of the promo vids, so I’ll have to make guesses based off of their bios - which aren’t manipulated by CBS at all... I’m going to play a game of fan or “fan” based upon their choices of “Which Survivor are you the most like?” I don’t know how many seasons of the show they’ll be given to watch before they’re dropped on the island, but I’m guessing that the first Fans vs. Favorites season and both Redemption Islands made the cut. (FvF obviously, and the two RI seasons account for 60% of the returnees.) I’m torn on Nicaragua, it is a horrible season to make anyone have to watch, and there really wasn’t much in the way of strategy going on. But then again, two of the young women chose Brenda...

10. Sherri. Oldest woman (though obviously in good shape,) good chance she doesn’t get along with the other two people in her age range (the bearded dude and the gay guy.) Yes I’m making an assumption about someone from Idaho. “Fan” - With two female winners to choose from my presumed watching list, she chose the one with more screen time (Parvati.)

9. Matt. Not the oldest guy, but the most likely looking to be suffering from nicotine withdrawal. (Zane has put this into my head permanently.) Also, it’s hard to see what kind of shape he’s in. Fan. (Rupert and Lex)

8. Hope. Pageant girl. “Fan” (Andrea, Parvati, Brenda.)

7. Laura. Short. (That seems awful to type, but remember, we’re going off of perceived “challenge-strength” here.) Fan? (Brenda, Parvati, Jenna Morasco)

6. Eddie. This seems like a weird place to slot the fire-fighter, but he screams recruit to me. His three items all had to do with “surviving in the wilderness” which hasn’t been an issue since Australia, plus he chose Rob M. as the Survivor he is like. Yeah, “fan.”

5. Allie. Interchangeable blonde girl. Did choose Jenna M., so unless they gave them Amazon, fan.

4. Julia. Youngest; allegedly a race-car driver, if so she’ll have that over-developed competitive streak which ought to help. Fan (Probst wouldn’t have given them One World to watch, so I’m loving her choice of Kim S.)

3. Michael. How did he get this high? In shape enough to make a social game more valuable than tribe-strength? I must be biased for fans, he chose two of my favorite thinkers, Cirie and Rob C.

2. Shamar. Also probably too high, damn my rubric. Fan. The kind who chooses Rupert.

1. Reynold. Not too old, in “sales.” I’m getting a Brian Heidik vibe from this one. Fan (Colby, Parvati, Todd H.)

#2

KimberStormer

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Posted Feb 11, 2013 @ 12:34 PM

Let me commit to being horribly wrong, for everyone to see for all time.


I appreciate your willingness to put it out there, Way Wes. I hope you're wrong about some of this, right about others.

#3

enlightenedbum

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Posted Feb 12, 2013 @ 4:55 PM

I never watch the preview stuff, so I won't even put a wager on the fans until I see them for an episode or two. As for the favorites:

10. Brandon. Is unstable and the person I think is the best player absolutely knows it. She's concerned about showing too much skin around him, because she knows what's up. I think he's toast as soon as she is part of the majority alliance. And she will be.
9. Phillip. Goatability is strong, but that same person kind of hates him. Can endure him, but probably doesn't want to.
8. Francesca. A useful took to get rid of obnoxious people, but not useful enough to keep to the merge where she becomes dangerousish as a Sandra type.
7. Cochran. Useless and somewhat abrasive. Saved because the aforementioned person finds him adorable and controllable. So could go far based on that.
6. Corinne. VERY abrasive. Too blunt, probably doomed.
5. Brenda. I think is super overrated as a player, but is relatively useful in challenges so is kept around. Doomed when someone inevitably betrays her and she does nothing to flip it back.
4. Malcolm. An unknown to these guys. I think that works against him, but he's charming enough and there are enough nutjobs they'll all want to get rid of quickly along with non-nutjob goats to buy him some time. At which point he'll be around until the physical threats start getting targeted. I'd guess ~6th place.
3. Erik. Basically Malcolm but known to be dumb so not as threatening. Will go just after him.
2. Dawn. Super likable and surprisingly strong. I think she goes far and is voted out at the last TC before the FTC (the Cirie/Yau/Cesternino place of honor).
1. Andrea. Yes, I have a crush on her. Sue me. She's still my winner. Further supposition: she's the one who beats Malcolm and Erik, allowing them to get voted out and continues her immunity run right to FTC and wins the game. Also, will flirt with Malcolm.

Actual FTC: Andrea, a goat (Cochran or Corinne), and a fan to be named later. Probably a woman.

Edited by enlightenedbum, Feb 12, 2013 @ 4:56 PM.


#4

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Feb 15, 2013 @ 11:36 AM

Alrighty then. Ranking the fans, (and I’m willing to reconsider that some of the “fans” may actually be fans,) is going to be tough - the returnees were always going to get more airtime than the newbies before we adjust for who is going to tribal, once the second-timers lost immunity ... the Gota tribe is still pretty much a cipher.

I really liked (tighty-pinkies excepted) the “okay, you’re here, challenge time!” immediate reward challenge. (Imagine if Abi-Maria’s challenge worthlessness had been exposed before RC had had a chance to make her first day alliance.) And contrary to my hypothetical, no one had a truly bad showing. Bikal won primarily because they had the experience to know what to do in the early rounds, while the fans were still experiencing the learning curve.

Both tribes set up their immunity challenge teams very well. And while Jiffy Pop called out Allie for holding up Eddie (new crush alert!,) she really wasn’t that far behind him. And frankly, of the twenty people in that challenge, the only person who could have kept up with Brandon and Andrea is Erik - so Gota was going to fall behind in that last stage regardless. Reynold played bags like a Chicagoan there - I wouldn’t be surprised if he told his tribe that he’s the greater San Francisco bar-league bag tossing champ, (and that it was close to being true.)
[Also note that the only returnee mistake was Fran not picking up a crate while she was waiting for Corinne, a first boots lack of experience there.] Malcolm didn’t seem to take any heat for losing the challenge; I doubt any of them would volunteer with confidence that they “could have done better.”

The editors were so intent on ham-handing their way through Francesca becoming the first to be voted out first twice that I don’t recall any “million dollar quotes” this episode. But then again, we didn’t get the “If you let Denise get to Final Tribal, she will win” quotes from Malcolm and Other-Russell until episode four last season.

Gota (Orange)

So we have:
Pretty People Can’t Count: Reynold, Allie, Eddie, and Hope
Cute girls not in the top clique: Sherri, Julia, and Laura (and they think they’ve got the mascot-gay)
Outsider swing duo: Michael and Matt
Lone Wolf: Shamar

The douce patrol think that they’re sitting pretty, they probably assume that they can call out (Sherri and Laura? Oldest woman and shortest woman) challenge liabilities until their block of four actually has number power. The trouble is Sherri looked better than Hope and Allie in both challenges (as did Julia,) the dp may need to sacrifice their snuggle-buddies earlier than expected.

I hope I’m wrong with the rankings.

1. (1) Reynold. I’m going to assume that penis-power holds true, that Reynold and Eddie get Shamar to join them in making it 5-5, and that M&M switch. Blaugh.

2. (6) Eddie. Because we’re in the “tribal strength” portion of the program.
3. (5) Allie. Cuddle buddy of #1
4. (8) Hope. Cuddle buddy of #2. Damn you Burnett and Probst for not giving me much to work with. You could have used the (cut-out) half hour to let us get to know the new people.

5. (9) Matt. BMX shop owner probably still rides - he looks to be in pretty good shape. As part of the swing duo he has power (plus Michael looks to be the “betrayer” of the pair,) but unless they manage it very carefully they’ll end up as numbers 5-6 (or 4-5) of their voting blocks in the long term.

6. (3) Michael. Like Matt he has the short term power, but if he goes with the cool kids he’ll a) be betraying the “circle of ladies” and b) get cut loose by the mean girls as soon as it’s convenient (or funny.)

7. (2) Shamar. Bossy, loud, lone wolf. Overweight, (but scary-flexible,) so depending on the challenge could be a liability or an asset. Has an XY chromosome pair.

8. (4) Julia. The only woman called out by Probst as “flying up” the Immunity course.

9. (10) Sherri. She may be the oldest, but she is in good shape. Plus she’s a faster runner than

10. (7) Laura.

I’m rooting for the newbies by-and-large, but I really want them to go to tribal a couple of times so I can figure out the dynamic.

Bikal (Purple)

Being returnees, they’re not as likely to fall into the challenge-strength trap. And even with all of the screen-time they were given, other than who voted for whom, there’s no clear big alliances.

1. (10) Phillip. I can’t believe I just did that. But he looks like everyone’s choice to take to the final. And until the dynamics are revealed, sigh.

2. (8) John. I’d have put Malcolm here, but as the unknown, I was hesitant. John and Dawn played the decision-making duo part in this weeks episode, but unlike Gota’s M&M, it’s not clear that they default to numbers 5 and 6 in the “alliance.”

3. (6) Malcolm. About as high as I’m willing to put “the new guy.” Not in any immediate danger, but look out once Jury phase starts.

4. (2) Erik. On the wrong side of the vote, but with Malcolm his tribes physical-challenge cornerstone. Not likely to be an early boot.

5. (7) Dawn Not impressive in the challenges so far (in fact, I was surprised John did the first leg of immunity and Dawn did the “bag retrieve,” unless they thought John wouldn’t be able to carry a basket of bean bags...) I have her ahead of Corinne because she has John in her corner.

6. (4) Corrine. Also not that impressive in the immunity challenge. I’m not convinced Andrea has her back as strongly as John has Dawns.

7. (1) Andrea. Apparently I’m not the only one who ranked Andrea number one headed into the show. (Hi there enlightenedbum, pretty similar ratings I see,)Her being targetted had nothing to do with her challenge prowess (unless you’re looking ahead to individual,) and everything with her being a threat to win it all. There is an argument to be made that I could have left her at #1, but the returnees look like they’re ready to think (too far) ahead from the start.

8. (3) Brenda. Either out of the loop, or in the wrong “alliance,” not good regardless. Weaker in challenges than Brandon, but I’m going to let the preview-monkees influence my rankings. (I know better, but this has been a very depressing week to rate, and I need a glimmer of hope.)

9. (5) Brandon. Wrong side of the voting, potential to be unlikeable, preview implies he brings the cray-cray. A boy can hope, right? As an aside, Brandon may have made the (surprisingly eloquent) case that Andrea was a strategic threat who seemed to be talking to everyone, but I’m not convinced that he doesn’t find her attractive and thus is this seasons Mikayla.

10. (9) Francesca. Too hard, too fast. Went the personal route, turning on Phillip, after she and Andrea had agreed to try and bring him in with Dawn and John. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dawn and John saw this as instability, ensuring they wanted to keep working with Andrea (who was counting and talking to her allies rather than assuming they’d just do what she wanted.)

#5

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Feb 21, 2013 @ 11:07 AM

I think there is a girl named Julia on Gota. Her tribe went to tribal council, but instead of giving us more of that tribe I wasted five or six minutes of my life watching Secret Agent Man set up the sequel to Stealth R Us Inc.? Eff you, Burnett.

Gota (Orange)

1. Sherri (9) She received the “leader” edit, and both she and Laura had good talking head segments talking about strategy. “Shamar is my Phillip,” shows that she already has a plan in place. She told Shamar that she had Matt’s vote, and I inferred that she had talked to him herself, not that she was relying upon Michael to bring him in. So happy I was wrong last week.

2. Laura (10) When asked who she would target, she said Allie. My first instinct was to disparage the “get rid of a woman to keep the tribe stronger for challenges” trope, but then she had a talking head where she worried about Allie from a strategic standpoint. And really, I’ll trust her judgement that Allie was the smartest, (and/or best versed for Survivor,) amongst the Kool Kids Kan’t Kount alliance. Reynold has allegedly implied or admitted that he was a recruit; Eddie (see previous post) has already tripped my recruit alarm; and Hope is a pageant girl, i.e. the recruit in this one, strong it is. Plus, I like the way she flushed the HII, (with an assist from Jiffy Pop.)

3. Shamar (7) Already being groomed as a goat/shield by Sherri. (And probably Laura.)

4. Julia (8) Invisible member of the top alliance.

5. Matt (5) Regardless of what Michael says in his talking heads, Matt was edited as being the decider of our two floaters. I think he may be able to sell this to Sherri, as Michael said at Tribal, because of their shared experience as parents.

6. Michael (6)

7. Reynold (1) Shenanigans. Go to the Grassy Knoll. Has the HII, was stupid enough to cop to it, was smart enough to bluff about using it. Split vote hi-jinks to follow.

8. Eddie (2)
9. Hope (4)

10. Allie (3) Had you not learned, watching the show since you were eleven, that (semi-romantic) couples are always split up? Especially if they are not in the majority. Did you ask M&M how they were voting, or did you trust Reynold? On the plus side, you were singled out as being the “dangerous” one instead of the challenge liability. (Hi there Hope, see you next time.)

Bikal (Purple)

No changes. Brandon is still hot/cold, (and John nailed it in his TH.) I’m tempted to switch John and Phillip; that image of John giving his TH while on his “sea throne” is very powerful - we’ll have to see if all of his interviews are there (in which case: coincidence,) or if that is a one-off/ rarity, (in which case, potential winner edit clue.) And at least Dawn is getting her break-down out of her system early.

#6

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Feb 28, 2013 @ 10:56 AM

Well, that was boring. Malcolm and Corrine found the Gota HII, two people who, within their alliance, need it. Again, too convenient for me not to at least think about shenanigans. We were treated to an extended clip of Phillip being delusional. Shamar can’t handle the truth ... um, had a quitting-crisis. (Does anyone ever quit after one of these?) I did enjoy the plan coming together, when I said last week that split vote hi-jink’s were to follow, I was expecting someone (Shamar) to screw them up.

Bikal (Purple)

You’ve got the numbers at the moment, but that last IC was up for grabs. (And why, oh why, did Reynold surrender the ring toss job? I assume that they were told they had to cycle through somehow, but TPTB never give us the full rule set.) Since they won immunity we didn’t get much from them this week; the HII discovery, Phillip comparing himself to Basketball Jesus, and Andrea maneuvering around Corrine.

1. Phillip (1) One thing to note, I’m not ranking him this high because I think he’ll win, I think he’ll make the merge, and possibly the Final.

2. John (2) Interview wasn’t on the Sea Throne. I wonder if everyone on Bikal had to do one there (and it wasn’t comfortable to sit on, so just the one,) and we saw John there because that’s our foreshadowing.

3. Malcolm (3) Finding the Hidden Immunity Idol doesn’t hurt.

4. Dawn (5) Moves up due to my suspicions about John. Also, she’s not shit-stirring (Andrea,) being shit-stirred (Corrine,) or off on her own outside of tribal dynamics (Brenda.) Best position of the women.

5. Erik (4) As we get closer to the merge (or Corrine’s prediction of a shuffle,) he becomes less valuable to Bikal.

6. Andrea (7) I think you’re moving too hard, too fast against Corrine. Were you hoping to ally with Malcolm, and are jealous that he seems closer to Corrine? But you seem to have John’s ear, so as with Dawn, I’ll play that as a positive.

7. Brandon (9) You haven’t brought the crazy in a couple of days, and the editors didn’t give you a negative confessional after you talked to Andrea, and you are an asset in challenges (though as with Erik, this diminishes with time.)

8. Brenda (8) Invisible, outside the tribal dynamic, an easy boot if the tribe goes the drama-free route.

9. Corrine (6) These are the returning players, they’re not going to choose the drama free route. You don’t know, but we at home do, Malcolm’s not likely to share the idol, even if there are danger signs floating around his ally. Ask Denise.

Gota (Orange)

No changes, but I want to comment on enough of them to make it worthwhile. Eddie will be ranked last, but I doubt he’ll be in danger if they lose a third IC in a row. Sherri’s group will feel compelled to cut one of their own for “challenge strength” or “tribal harmony” so either Julia or Shamar will be in the cross-hairs.

1. Sherri (1) I hope your viewing parties aren’t heavily attended by your employees. A totally reasonable comment, said to a totally unreasonable party. But that won’t have an effect on what’s happening on the island. You and Laura did a good job of talking Shamar out of quitting.

2. Laura (2) The only person thinking about booting you for your poor swimming was you. Don’t put the thought in others heads. I think you’re closer to Sherri than Julia, so I don’t think you are in danger unless the next IC is a marathon swim.

3. Shamar (3) Too high, but I didn’t feel like changing the list up. If post-quitting-crisis Shamar stays around, and post-TC Shamar stays hidden, you may get the goat ride. If you continue to berate your alliance mates (Matt, Julia,) they have the numbers to be safe without you.

4. Julia (4) We finally get to see you. And you weren’t awful or useless. But you did seem second-banana-ish. A third TC in a row and you could be in trouble.

5. Matt (5) If I had reshuffled, I think I would have switched you and Shamar. You, not Michael, seem to be in the inner circle with Sherri and Laura.

6. Michael (6) Don’t feel bad about Shamar not giving you the high-five, you were invisible this episode. (Or as someone in the episode thread said, you tagged in Julia.)

7. Reynold (7) I wish I knew why you didn’t take permanent control of the throwing. I loved the shots of you at tribal as the votes were being read. Complete cluelessness as the vote split happened, and the light-bulb moment when Probst said you had to re-vote.

8. Eddie (8)

GONE - Hope (9) Totally predictable. You should have taken Shamar’s lifeline, even if Reynold fell for Laura’s “plan.” When Probst asked if anyone was going to play the idol your expression was a great mix of hopefulness and resignation.

#7

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Mar 8, 2013 @ 10:24 AM

Thank goodness there were two challenges and dancing Ta Ta, because that episode was just about as unmemorable as last weeks. This season needs to ramp it up soon, as it is headed straight into Panama and Nicaragua territory.

Bikal (Purple)

No Change from last week. Given Andrea’s edit, I’d move her down, but Corinne and Brenda are still more expendable. Crazy Pantz obviously does dump the rice out, but given that this entire bunch is playing “who’s my goat?,” that doesn't mean he’ll be voted out. You know what alliance I could really get behind? Malcolm, Andrea, and Filipino Gollum.

Gota (Orange)

Shamar’s getting evaced for an injury received while lying on his ass really screws up my reading on this tribe. We’re essentially down to three pairs now, fluid and chaotic.

1. Matt (5) The decision maker of the “floating” pair. He wasn’t as connected to Sherri as Michael, thus his willingness to go the Y-Chromosome route the last vote, (and probably going forward if this iteration of Gota continues to lose IC’s. If there is a switch in the future...)

2. Michael (6) Matt’s gotten the edit showing him as the one being the most willing to float/switch/embrace being the swing vote, so I have to assume you’re following in his wake.

3. Reynold (7) Given how many “throwing” challenges we’ve had, you’re definitely the MVP of the challenge portion of the program. And while your edit does suggest you’re a bit entitled, you are nowhere as near getting the self-absorbed, self-entitled, grade-a douchebag edit that

4. Eddie (8) is. You also are getting the “not-too-bright” edit, so I’ve got to put you down as Reynold’s second banana.

5. Julia (4) You’re not the ‘leader’ of your pair, but Sherri was called out as being the weakest woman remaining. Since I see this tribe devolving into a sausage fest (in order to save the two freaking recruits no less,) you should survive a potential next tribal.

6. Sherri (1) You and Laura were totally screwed by Shamar’s evac. It is partially your fault for keeping him around as “your Phillip,” but at worst you could have sacrificed him at tribal if he hadn’t done himself in.

GONE Laura (2) Had everything gone your way (Shamar stayed, Eddie voted out, Reynolds idol flushed,) you still would have been in real danger should Gota lost another IC. (Though that would involve Shamar and Reynold working together ... I see Matt working Shamar in that scenario ... never mind, you were totally screwed by Shamar’s evac.)

EVAC Shamar (3) Goodbye. Get counselling.

#8

KimberStormer

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Posted Mar 8, 2013 @ 12:17 PM

never mind, you were totally screwed by Shamar’s evac


Yeah, that was my conclusion as well. Really sucks.

#9

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Mar 15, 2013 @ 11:01 AM

Oh man, that looked like it would have been a fun challenge to watch Gota fail at. What’s funny is, given the episode, they spent a reasonable amount of time on Gota - and I still don’t remember that much of their footage, as Brandon’s meltdown at Bikal was just. That. Spectacular.

Gota

I don’t understand why Eddie was a thrower and not an anchor. I’d bet you would have won the reward with that one change. Otherwise, this just follows the alternating “no change this week” pattern. (Which if the preview is to be believed, will definitely change next week.)

So no change, but I will mention that Jiffy Pop’s denigration of Sherri during the challenge doesn’t help her standing, and that (Grassy Knoll Alert) Reynold’s finding of the HII cements his “top half” ranking.

Bikal

It’s tempting to go with ”no changes” here also, with the obvious change of Brandon being voted out/ not!quitting, as we didn’t really have anything massively change the pecking order. But that would be too lazy.

1. Phillip (1) Given the implied tribe swap next week, this is a tenuous ranking. While I think you’re safe among the Bikal majority, if you find yourself in a minority position against Gota members ... I don’t think they see you as “their” Phillip. I also want to apologize for saying that you were “not really an asset in challenges.” On RI you were on the tribe with Rob, Grant, and Andrea - if you were better than competent at challenges there, it seems you were overshadowed. This season though, even with Malcolm, Erik, Andrea, and Brandon, you are not only holding your own, but functioning as a vital part of the team.

2. John (2) You, on the other hand, might be able to go UTR in a minority position - long enough to make the merge, and then work from there.

3. Malcolm (3) The “fans” don’t know you, but you’re obviously athletic - in danger if in a minotirty situation

4. Dawn (4) You tried well with your version of Brandon-wrangling. And in a way that leaves your alliance not looking at you sideways. (Say “Hi,” Andrea.)

5. Erik (5) While a Gota majority won’t see you as a strategic threat, ..., see Malcolm.

6. Andrea (6) Probably should have kept your mouth shut when Brandon was asking about Phillip. Your edit is weird though, you are shown trying to play a strategic game, but everything seems to go awry.

7. Brenda (8)
8. Corinne (9) Nothing to add for these two. If I had to guess, and I’m choosing to speculate here, I’m thinking these two end up on the “new” tribe that has a majority of Gota members; and that they don’t make the merge. (Based on their semi-to completely-invisible edits. Erik might fit this also.)

GONE Brandon (7) What did I write for Shamar?

Goodbye. Get counselling.

Yeah, that.

#10

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Mar 22, 2013 @ 9:40 AM

Well, that’s an oddly anti-climactic tribal switch. Instead of having Bikal continuing to destroy Gota in challenges, sending fan after “fan” off the island (cementing a tremendous numerical advantage for the “favorites” post-merge,) given the very physical nature of this season’s challenges there is no way I cannot envision newGota continuing to destroy newBikal in challenges, sending fan after “fan” off the island (cementing a tremendous numerical advantage for the “favorites” post-merge.) Now mind you, with the 4-3 split, the numbers advantage part was never in question, but the one tribe always winning? Hmpf.


I cannot adequately express how unhappy I am that Phillip ended up on the (losing) team of destiny. With Bikal (assumedly) headed to every tribal until the merge we’re going to be ‘treated’ to even more footage of secret agent man.


(Totally random aside, I’d like to see newGota pitted against an ‘all-star’ team of RW/RR Challenge vets. The folks at Grantland joke about the Challenge being our fifth major league sport, but even with Sherri, the folks wearing the orange buffs have to be the most impressive batch of athletes Survivor has ever managed to put on one side.)


It is amazing to see how much better returning players are as a whole, even when pitted against fans (who should know better.) I understand that part of the reason all of the oldGota members were blabbing about their tribal history and schisms was that they all recognized that they are on the wrong end of a 4-3 numbers situation and were trying to save their rears, but still...


Gota (Orange)


It’s hard to rank this group. The returning players are split 2-2, but I can’t see them not targeting Eddie/Reynold/Sherri before each other in the miniscule chance they go to tribal before the merge. The (big) question is would they side with the older lady, or with the obvious-pair of individual immunity challenge threats. Not really a question, is it?


1. Malcolm (3B) A total aside: I’m not defending the, “I’m good at lying to women,” comment - I suspect that’s closer to the “true” Malcolm than the editors have shown us. But remember, Malcolm thought he was getting a ‘villain’ edit in Philippines, (he was surprised by the golden-boy edit once he saw the show,) and he may be trying to continue playing the character he thought he was brought back for ...

2. Andrea (6B)
3. Erik (5B)
4. Brenda (7B) I didn’t see anything this week to make me think you’re not sticking with the “returning” players until after the merge. (But Erik and Brenda? I’d totally be trying to recruit Eddie and Reynold if I were you.)


5. Sherri (6G)
6. Reynold (3G)
7. Eddie (4G) Reynold’s ahead of Eddie because he has the idol. If the merge happens at 12, the morons won’t listen to Sherri and Julia/Michael and try to engineer a use for the HII, instead they will listen to their new besties and vote for Sherri. (Though it would be moot, at twelve the vets can vote 4-Reynold and 4-Eddie and even if the newbies all voted for the same person, a “fan” would be eliminated on the revote.)


Bikal (Purple)


1. John (2B) While the editors tried to make us think that there was a decision that Phillip and Corinne were struggling with, you (and Dawn,) made your case and the tribe voted your way.


2. Dawn (4B) All four returnees are from the same alliance, but you and John have been aligned since the first episode.


3. Phillip (1B) No higher than three the rest of the way, goat-boy.


4. Corinne (8B) Enjoy the artificially high ranking, you alliance still wants to cut you. (At least Phillip and Andrea.) At least one “fan” will outlast you. Heck, if the merge happens late - say at ten - you might not make the merge.


5. Michael (2G) While John and Dawn may prefer to keep Julia (see: Sherri, above,) they’ll be smart and defer to Phillip and Corinne’s choice for the next boot.


6. Julia (5G) I suspect the editors invisibled you because you don’t make the merge. The interactions they chose to show us this week really makes me wonder what they left out of the previous episodes. Go get your Stanford degree and make all of these fools your bitches in real life™.


GONE Matt (1G) The way the tribes split did you in. You played a good game, had a smart attitude within the game, and a classy exit. Thing just didn’t align (heh) for you.

Edited by Way Wes Jr, Mar 22, 2013 @ 9:49 AM.


#11

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Apr 1, 2013 @ 9:28 AM

Totally predictable episode. Bikal was obviously going to lose any challenge that wasn’t “answer this Survivor trivia (about South Pacific.”) Julia was the obvious choice going into the episode, and with a confessional (!) seventeen minutes in, they may have just as well slapped a “eliminated tonight at Tribal Council” chyron on during the confessional. Phillip and Corinne continued to hate each other, but not so much that they’d do something stupid. Reynold told Malcolm he had the HII, (really, when you think about it, it was predictable.)

So with the preview telling us that there is a merge, and there being no change to my tribal rankings, let’s take a stab at the merged tribe:

1. John (1B) You’re getting quality screen time, you’re in the power structure of the dominant alliance amongst the returnees, and whenever there has been a choice you’ve been getting your way - looking good.

2. Malcolm (1G) You have meat shields and a HII, however you’ve been shown obsessing over needing to “make a big move.” Making a big move is not that important - did Denise, Kim, or Sophie make a “big move?” No. I can totally see you you stabbing too early and paying the price.

3. Phillip (3B) Naaah. </goat sound>

4. Dawn (2B) As John’s partner, I’m putting you here.

5. Andrea (2G) I don’t know if you’ll finish this high, like Malcolm you seem too interested in “playing the game” rather than winning the game

6. Brenda (4G) An individual immunity threat, but not as much as the “Alpha Male Club” members below you.

7. Erik (3G) Last Alpha Male (not holding an idol) standing.

8. Sherri (7G) One of the fans is going to outlast the inevitable Phillip/Corinne showdown. As the least threatening one left ... I’m choosing you. Plus, you’re willing to vote against Reynold and Eddie (good for two tribal councils,) whereas they’re only good for one TC: against you.

9. Corinne (4B) I’d rather you win the confrontation, but with Andrea in Phillip’s corner ... The real question is: do you out Malcolm’s HII once you realize he’s not giving it to you?

10. Michael (5B) Your ouster, when Corinne will be campaigning for either Sherri or a blindside of Phillip ought to be the writing on the wall for Corinne. (Which will cue up a whole episode of her asking for the idol she “shares” with Malcolm.)

11. Reynold (5G) Individual immunity threat, has HII. The real drama next episode will be: does Malcolm tell the returnees about the idol? Do the numbers dominant returnees split the vote anyway? You better hope every IC the rest of the way has a throwing component. (Which, given this season so far, I wouldn’t bet against...)

12. Eddie (6G) Individual immunity threat, does not have HII.

GONE Julia (6B) Like I said, invisible edit = out before merge. On the other hand, post interviews and John TH’s imply that maybe you were that invisible out there.

Edited by Way Wes Jr, Apr 1, 2013 @ 9:31 AM.


#12

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Apr 8, 2013 @ 8:15 AM

I commented in the episode thread - so pretty much off to the rankings. Despite how entertaining the episode was as a whole, it really doesn’t shake up my rankings (other than one big drop.)

Enil Edam (Green)

1. John (1) I think you’ve been getting a winners edit so far, and while you weren’t quite as much the fulcrum of this weeks strategy, your partner

2. Dawn (4) most certainly was. Good choice staying with your six (seven with Sherri,) instead of following along with Corinne. Not that it really should be viewed as a choice.

3. Phillip (3) G.O.A.T. (Goatiest of all time.)

4. Andrea (5) If I was John, Dawn, (and Phillip,) I’d be thinking of bringing Sherri along to the final four instead of any of the next three, to minimize the chance of an inopportune IC win or two. (Using the full animal analogy John-fox, dawn-bear (honesty and loyalty version, not challenge prowess,) Phillip, and Sherri - bunny. In Phillip’s mind he’s a Lion)

5. Brenda (6) Invisible edit + knee wrap = possible medivac at worst, perfunctory easy boot once the alliance has to turn on itself at best.

6. Erik (7) Along with Andrea a challenge threat to the top four of the rankings. Could totally pull off the Fabio (bunny) win if allowed to go on an IC run.

7. Sherri (8) While I think you’ll be the last “fan” standing, I don’t think you’re likely to get a future return visit. Reynold pretty much has that wrapped up.

8. Malcolm (2) And here’s the big drop. While I suppose you could play dumb, (“I thought we were voting out the fans,”) the simple face is that you voted with the losing side of five which now consists of the remaining male “fans” and yourself. Judicious use of your HII could help you outlast Erik and/or Brenda, but ... Your best bet is to expose Reynolds HII.

9. Michael (10) You were most closely aligned with the evictee, however you are nowhere near the IC threat that Reynold and Eddie are.

10. Reynold (11) If Corinne had kept her mouth shut these rankings would be all topsy-turvy, instead the inevitable Pagonging of the “fans” shall continue.

11. Eddie (12) You seem more well liked by the famewhore-aways than Reynold, but he has an immunity idol. Time to go on a challenge monster streak or say goodbye.

GONE Corinne (9) Telling Dawn your master plan to get rid of Phillip was just plain dumb, especially if you went to her before Phillip talked to you about vote splitting (as you claim in post-interviews.) All you had to do was campaign for the split vote to be (Reynold or Eddie) vs Sherri, and then act shocked - shocked I say - to discover that the “fans” turned on one of their own.

#13

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Apr 14, 2013 @ 8:35 AM

Congratulations to the editors for setting up an unpredictable tribal council. I had no idea if Andrea was going to have time/ be able to swing her alliance over to the “safe” choice of Michael or not. (And demerits to the editors for not even giving Brenda a confessional after she won freaking immunity.) Funny that, with all of the manipulation, misdirection, and paranoia, we ended up with the most obvious type of result ( a “fan” getting Pagonged,) if not the person I would have expected.

Enil Edam (Green)

1. Dawn (2) You were crucial in last week’s result, and you were the driving force this week also. Must be rewarded.

2. John (1) Great reaction (snark) to the locker-room spiel of Reynold. Got the “great adventure” confessional for the reward challenge. But invisible-ish during the strategy part of the program.

3. Phillip (3) Tin cans? Yumm!

4. Andrea (4) Just because they’re out to get you, doesn’t mean you’re not paranoid. I don’t know if you lucked your way through the second best possible tribal council result (best would have been both Reynold AND Malcolm playing their HII’s,) or if you and Phillip concocted his “big mouth” performance at Tribal, but regardless, it worked out for you.

5. Sherri (7) I think Phillip sees you as his Goat. I don’t know who else he thinks he can beat at a FTC, but I can see him at least trying to convince Andrea to keep you around.

6. Erik (6) A cypher strategically, but followed along with the returnees in voting for Michael.

7. Brenda (5) Your edit is becoming its own story. Unfortunately, like your edit, that’s not a good thing.

8. Malcolm (8) Nice Jedi mind trick on Reynold. And you still have the only remaining HII - unfortunately, that’ll only buy you one extra TC. (Unless Probst hides a replacement in your pants while you’re sleeping.)

9. Eddie (11) You seem more well liked than your “bro.”

10. Reynold (10) You almost pulled an Erik by giving Malcolm your idol, but the opposite alliance went for the safe vote rather than a split, so you weren’t eliminated. This episode.

GONE Michael (9) Victim of the safe Pagong vote. At least you got to go on the really fun reward. And you don’t have Corinne at Ponderosa.

#14

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Apr 18, 2013 @ 10:10 AM

Wow. That causes a lot of shifting. While I still think it’s likely that Probst will hide a replacement HII in Malcolm’s (or Reynold’s) pants while everyone is asleep, I can’t go off of any assumptions about them being found (or played with an ounce of sense.)

Phillip wasn’t just a “fun sponge” for the contestants, he was for me as well - so thank you brolliance. But things are going to go downhill for you from here. While the main alliance has lost its split-vote edge in case of HII’s, you’re still down 6-3. I just don’t think you’re going to get two people to split off - especially since the three of you are all real immunity challenge threats, there’s little upside to switching sides. (Plus as John knows from his last outing, and Dawn is worried about this time, if a “switcher” makes it to FTC they run the likely risk of being there as someone elses goat (or more accurately, rat.))

Enil Edam (Green)

1. John (2) Moving you back up, as you and Dawn both realize that she seems to be taking the hit for the alliances decisions regarding the boots; but I expect that you’ll be able to sell your strategic case better than Stephen did. (Though JT had everyone under his charm spell regardless.)

2. Andrea (4) I’m assuming you don’t jump to the bros. You’re at two because you are the other strategic leader of the alliance, and the most well-rounded challenge threat of the six; if anyone is going to sneak into FTC via a challenge run (other than Reynold, but that would take a Herculean streak,) it is you.

3. Sherri (5) Welcome to the Goat position. The only person I can see voting for at FTC is Michael, and that’s a huge if at that. I think Phillip was hoping to take you and Dawn to the end, and he may have had a chance.

4. Dawn (1) In your secret scene confessional you recognize that you already have four potential jurors against you (Michael, Reynold, Eddie, and Malcolm) and you also realize that your emotional state is wearing on your tribemates as well. It is interesting to see a Survivor recognize that they might be brought along to the final as a goat/rat.

5. Brenda (7) I was scared for you when you received the confessional, but it fit in context of the (red-herring, heavily promoted) Dawn meltdown - and if you are tight with John and Dawn it positions you nicely for a ride to F4 as their “bunny.” (If anyone is confused by my adoption of the Survivor Zoology lexicon, I really recommend the Consider the Goat thread.)

6. Erik (6) You really are taking things “one vote at a time,” Sandra style. The trouble is you are an immunity challenge threat, and will be targeted when appropriate. (As opposed to Sandra who was most assuredly not a challenge threat.) Great job reminding everyone that the HII’s have to be played to actually grant immunity - and I can forgive you for making the mistake of booting Phillip for what looked to be personal reasons rather than truly strategic ones.

7. Eddie (9) You seem to be viewed as the least threatening of the brolliance. And Malcolm doesn’t have the HII anymore. (For now.)

8. Malcolm (8) You used the HII. It was fun to watch, and got rid of Phillip. But there were much better ways you three could have played that. (I especially like the one vote each for Phillip/Andrea/John, revealing the idols after the voting, and forcing the alliance to revote in true chaos. But, alas, it wasn’t to be.)

9. Reynold (10) Everyone views you as a challenge threat. Many of them recognize that you have a used-car sales vibe, that may be stereotypically negative, but must work at least some of the time, especially if the talker is charming. Only six more immunity challenges in a row and you’re in the final.

GONE Phillip (3) I think Malcolm can count, and realizes that at 6-3, he’s probably not going to make the final - so why not target the “fun-sponge?” It was a surprise, but I’m glad to be wrong.

#15

enlightenedbum

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Posted Apr 18, 2013 @ 7:39 PM

This is a likelihood to win list, right? I can't agree with Andrea being that high, even though I adore her. She has no path to FTC other than winning the last three immunity challenges.

Because she'd win if she got there.

Edited by enlightenedbum, Apr 18, 2013 @ 7:39 PM.


#16

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Apr 20, 2013 @ 7:33 AM

I think she only has to win two (assuming F3.) If they're able to pick of TTA, they've got to get rid of Erik first as he's just as much a challenge threat as Andrea, (and keeping Erik would leave Dawn and John down 2-3 against the "outsiders" of Erik, Brenda, and Sherri.) This is the most formidable looking group of challenge threats to an alliance (Reynold, Malcolm, Eddie) or sub-alliance (Erik, Brenda-if healthy) [still thinking of the original core-four of Phillip, Andrea, Dawn, and John here,] I can remember the show ever having.

If Brenda hadn't been receiving the invisi-edit, I'd take the, "she's got my back. I've got hers," comment more seriously, and agree with you fully. And I did say she'd have to go on an IC run to sneak into FTC.

Before the merge it was more of a 'likely to make the merge list' (see: Phillip at #1 for a while,) but it's more of a 'least likely to be voted off list,' as I'm not trying to figure out juror motivations.

#17

Way Wes Jr

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Posted Apr 26, 2013 @ 9:05 AM

So, very entertaining episode albeit a very predictable one. I hope everyone bothered to watch the “next time” clip, because frankly that has just as much effect on my rankings as anything else...

Enil Edam Green

1. John (1) You totally misplayed the auction for the IC advantage unless everyone had much less money available than we at home could surmise. (And given that we know they edit out parts of the auction ... perhaps you knew you could outbid everyone else with your seemingly low-ball, door-opening-for-Eddie, bid.) Since TPTB didn’t consent to show us any discussions, I don’t know who came up with the shadow-Malcolm strategy, but either you or Andrea seem equally likely, especially since you both tailed him initially. And, while no one is taking you seriously as a IC threat, results be damned, you need to keep an eye out for fellow players who may be thinking about the jury phase (as, when we get to six, you should become a huge threat.)

2. Dawn (4) Previously on Survivor Brenda gives Dawn comfort; this week, role reversal time. Combined with Andrea seemingly moving too early in the preview, which is almost always a red herring ... Have you and John successfully concealed how tight I assume you are from the rest of tribe?

3. Sherri (3) Goaty goat, goat goat. You’re not in charge of anything. And the fact that you think you are just shows how well John, Andrea, and Dawn are playing.

4. Brenda (5) You had an early confessional - I was worried you were going home this episode. But I think its purpose was to show your closeness with Dawn, which will lead to Andrea’s ouster. Perhaps earlier than I think. Also, in a secret scene, you had Malcolm duty along with Andrea - were you sent there by John?

5. Andrea (2) You best bet was to outlast Erik, and then go on an immunity run. Playing nicey-nice with your alliance is the way to do that. BUT, while the preview is undoubtedly a red herring, you’re scheming with John about post-Pagonging John’s strongest ally - oops. Way to move up the radar. I’m assuming the editors are going to try to make us think that you or Dawn is going to get blindsided, to cover up the inevitable Reynold/Eddie boot.

6. Erik (6) Running out of time to make a move.

7. Eddie (7)
8. Reynold (9) Tick, tock.

GONE Malcolm (8) In retrospect I should have had you in ninth last week - everyone in the alliance recognized you as the strategic threat of the three amigos. (Damning with faint praise.) I think the back-to-back seasons really worked against you, you didn’t have the chance to recharge - physically, emotionally, or cognitively.

#18

Way Wes Jr

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Posted May 3, 2013 @ 9:05 AM

I saw the CBS preview that showed Andrea with the Hidden Immunity Idol, along with her “time for a blindside” quote. This turned out to be an incredibly predictable episode. Entertaining, but predictable. Information as reward? Then Andrea must win the first immunity and receive the same clue Malcolm had. (check) Andrea can’t be blindsided the first council so Reynold (or Eddie) has to be booted. (check) Neither Andrea or Brenda can win the second IC (so that Andrea can float a Brenda blindside and be eliminated instead.) (check) And so on to the conclusion. But it was still a better episode than many of those in the first half of the season.

Enil Edam (Green)

1. John (1) Yes, Brenda is floating your name in the preview. Unfortunately (for her) it is to Dawn. Seriously, how are you and Dawn hiding your pairing so well? I’m actually beginning to wonder if it is something that I’m projecting onto the episodes and that the evidence isn’t really there - but then something like this week’s episode happens (Andrea threatens Dawn,) and boom! How do the others not see it!? Neither you or Dawn should really be in trouble this episode and you really have the superior edit, so number one for you.

2. Dawn (2) I don’t see your edit as a winners edit, so I’m slotting you at two. I thought that if the jury was bitter, it’d be towards you, but everyone sent to Ponderosa so far has taken it really well. Do you give a horrendous performance at Final Tribal?

3. Sherri (3) There is an outside chance you lose your goat-position to Eddie. You have actually played the game of Survivor. Eddie seems to be playing Love in the Wild. On the other hand, Eddie could conceivably get two votes (and if the players misread Malcolm, they might think three,) so Sherri is probably safe to F3.

4. Erik (6) Playing the Sandra who can win challenges game. You’re too likeable (and no-feather-rustling,) to take into the Final, so you’ll have some crucial Immunity Challenges coming up.

5. Eddie (7) You could sneak into the final four as a non-threat, or you could be eliminated next.

6. Brenda (4) Dropping you to last because of: (a) your edit, (b) the “next time on Survivor preview” where you suggest blindsiding John (good idea!,) to Dawn (bad idea!) and © your edit. Again - do you get blindsided this upcoming episode and become so pissed off that you ditch the Jury? I cannot explain your story arc.

GONE Andrea (5) I think your big mistake was saying, “Brenda or Dawn.” If you had just focussed on your frenemy Brenda, I think she would have gone home. (John and Dawn need to start getting rid of the challenge-monster no enemies on the jury people soon. Like two tribal councils ago.) Great positive exit. We’ll see if you go bittercakes at Ponderosa.

GONE Reynold (8) You’ve said some heinous things, and you don’t really seem to understand the game (recruit,) but you had a fantastic attitude throughout the season, even as EVERYTHING went against you. I’ve read that you ditched the French Waiter/pornstache before while at Ponderosa - thank you.

#19

Way Wes Jr

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Posted May 9, 2013 @ 9:37 AM

Back in the old days, one could joke that if there was one Reward Challenge that you wanted to throw, it was the one for the car (as the “car curse” would kick in, and eliminate you soon.)  Now, it isn’t a joke: throw the loved one challenge.  Take the time during the competition to catch up (see:John,) and don’t win.  Even without the “you or them” twist (most evil part: floating in front of camp,) this is the reward that will engineer the most irrational emotional feelings amongst the folk you don’t choose, with the twist it’s even worse.  Either you’re awful for not giving (most likely a voting majority,) the others their visit, or you’re a saint for giving up yours, and a threat to win the game.  Better off not having to make the choice.

 

Both John and Dawn explicitly said that their final three was the two of them and Sherri.  And Sherri has no reason to switch over to Erik and Eddie - so maybe the threat of a medical evac next episode will make the first few segments a little less predictable.

 

There are no changes in the order.

 

Enil Edam (Green)

 

1. John (1) Winner winner chicken dinner (edit.)

 

2. Dawn (2) Brenda becomes the first (potentially) bitter juror, and she’s going to poisoning the well against you in particular.  As much as the editors have shown us more of your maneuvering than John’s, they’ve also shown us some of your crying jags.  (And I feel like there were more on the cutting room floor.)  I think that the serious game-play folk on the jury may see your ... “issues” with the necessary way the game has to be played as a weakness.

 

3. Sherri (3) You could have been an easy post-merge boot, but you moved yourself into the majority alliance, and with Phillip’s ouster you aimed for final three (though I don’t know if you realize you’re the goat.)

 

4. Erik (4) You could mess everything up by winning two straight immunities - if you make final three you could argue for a Sandra win.  (You can’t hope for a Fabio.)  But your edit doesn’t make me think “millionaire.”

 

5. Eddie (5)  Even with Andrea’s blindside last time, you really had no clue that you might not be leaving.

GONE Brenda (6) You were just too big of a threat.  For immunity, for likeability, for honesty (frankly I think Andrea wasn’t shocked about you voting for her.)  Someday I’d like to read about what happened for you to get the edit you did - you were a major force post merge, you overcame an injury, you betrayed Andrea and were betrayed by Dawn.  I don’t care how UTR you were pre-merge, you still gave confessionals, I’ve seen the secret scenes.


Edited by Way Wes Jr, May 9, 2013 @ 9:38 AM.