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Season 14 General Gabbery


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#991

LostWithSawyer

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Posted May 12, 2012 @ 8:41 PM

Thank you SaberTail, Twickenham, Sunnyheart, and QueenL for explaining about the dance style selection process. It's interesting to hear how the show has changed from season one to present day. I think you are right in that the show has probably evolved towards a format that the network feels will bring in more viewers and make things more exciting. I still feel like it is really great to compare the dance styles directly to one another (for example, the week that three couples did the Argentine Tango was wonderful) but I understand that others may prefer the current format of variety in the show. I just want the best dancer to win without "pimp" spots and judges bias...but I realize I might be asking for too much!

#992

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Posted May 14, 2012 @ 11:39 AM

Wow so William is going first tonight. I bet Maria will get the pimp slot tonight. Katherine will go second and Donald will go third. Anyways here's my pre-dance predictions:

William & Cheryl: Dance 1 Tango: Since He's going first chances are this may not be a 30 dance. I think this would be a solid dance for William. Score: 26-28. / Dance 2 Samba: William has done well with the other latin dances Salsa & Cha-Cha, however the Samba is the hardest dance to master. I think no the hardon that Carrie Ann & Bruno has fro him that he will no doubt score well with this dance. Score: 28-30.


Katherine & Mark: Dance 1: Quickstep: I think the one thing that has held Katherine back from getting 30s is the music selection. The music she's been getting with most of her recent dances just didn't fit the vibe of the dance. This should definitely be a great dance from Katherine. Score: 27-29. Dance 2: Salsa, I think she's definitely going to bring it tonight. She will definitely have the technique down, but would just need to let loose to please Bruno. Score: 27-30.


Donald & Peta: Dance 1: Waltz, Donald has one of the more slower dances tonight. This would be a solid dance for him tonight. I wonder if the judges will try to throw him under the bus tonight now that the dead weight have been eliminated from the competition. He will be scored the usual 27. Dance 2: Samba, Donald knows how to let loose and have fun. The only problem is he's always underscored as opposed to William. Hopefully the stars align and Donald can finally get that 30. Score: 27-29.


Maria & Derek: Dance 1: Argentine Tango. They better be lucky that had the crowd pleasing dance this late in the game. Just like his Paso's Derek has created some memorable A.T. with Lil' Kim, Jennifer Grey and Nicole. I'm thinking that this performance will definitely see Maria possibly earning another 30. Score: 28-30. Dance 2: Jive, this two dances could definitely make room for her in the finals. Derek has choreographed some memorable Jives as well. I'm gonna say she will probably score well on both dances tonight unless something goes wrong. Score: 28-30.



Final Rankings:
1. Maria & Derek
2. Katherine & Mark
3. William & Cheryl
4. Donald & Peta

Edited by Try Again, May 14, 2012 @ 11:42 AM.


#993

QueenL

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Posted May 15, 2012 @ 2:05 AM

Posted this in Katherine's thread, but it's probably better here, because people have asked about voting and margins before. I was one of those people, but it's great that I finally decided to figure out the exact details:

I just did the math.

There were 230 points handed out overall last night, and you're supposed to divide the scores each couple got by that.

25.65% - Maria & Derek [59 / 230]
24.35% - Katherine & Mark [56 / 230]
=1.35% difference in Maria's favor

25.21% - William & Cheryl [58 / 230]
24.35% - Katherine & Mark
=0.86% difference in William's favor

24.78% - Donald & Peta [57 / 230]
24.35% - Katherine & Mark
=.43% difference in Donald's favor

Doesn't seem like much, but then put it in this context.

Katherine needs:
13,500 more votes than Maria per million cast
8,600 more votes than William per million cast
4,300 more votes than Donald per million cast

Not much if only a million votes are cast, but if it's ten million votes, then you have to multiply all those by ten. Then it becomes a lot. She'd need 135,000 more votes than Maria.

I am curious to know how many votes this show receives.

If, say, only 10% of the viewers vote by phone after the show, that's still about 1.5 million people. If they vote all five times, that's 7.5 million votes right there. That's not even counting the more hardcore, internet voter types.

I think that more people vote now than they do at the beginning of the show. I think that this is why people like Melissa can overcome margins early on, but it gets tougher as the show goes on.


Edited by QueenL, May 15, 2012 @ 2:16 AM.


#994

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Posted May 15, 2012 @ 2:18 AM

Still scared for her. It'll be the first time the overall leader didn't make the finals. Just proves my point that good dancing gets you no where anymore.

Why try the hardest to nail the routines and get the best scores every week if the best dancer never wins. Personally, I'd feel discouraged if I was a celebrity considering doing DWTS. I'd think "well why bother go on and try to be the best if the best never wins."

#995

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Posted May 15, 2012 @ 9:40 AM

I'd think "well why bother go on and try to be the best if the best never wins."

You'd go on the show because it would revive your sagging or failed career or promo your new venture, whether it be selling a book, scheduling concerts, getting on talk shows, whatever. You would sign on for the fame it brings, not for MAYBE winning some crummy trophy. All the dancers who stay later in the show will be and are remembered well into tomorrow.

#996

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Posted May 15, 2012 @ 10:42 AM

Chelsie just announced via Twitter that she won Design a Dance.

#997

SaberTail

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Posted May 15, 2012 @ 11:31 AM

Thanks Twick. That surprises me. I just hope she's dancing with Tristan. But I'll bet it's Derek.

#998

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Posted May 15, 2012 @ 12:58 PM

Maybe that's why Roshon kept ending up in the bottom 2. Those fans were too busy voting for Chelsie in Design a Dance.

#999

moni

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Posted May 15, 2012 @ 2:23 PM

Did I see C. Brinkley in the audiance last night :) she would be awsome on teh show..what do you think?

#1000

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Posted May 17, 2012 @ 10:57 PM

Now that Donna Summer is gone, I wonder if the show will try to do a tribute to her next week the way they did for Dick Clark.

#1001

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 1:16 AM

Looks like Cheryl & William are definitely going for a Latin freestyle, as they should.

This girl just posted this picture with this caption:

“Choreographing for William Levy and Cheryl Burke!!! I love my job!!!!”


Looking her up, she's a Salsa dancer, so I guess that it will be Salsa inspired.

So I guess she's being brought in like Apolo & Julianne brought in a Hip-Hop dancer for their Freestyle? Wonder if this will be shown on the show. It was for A & J.

#1002

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 7:54 AM

Would this be SS?

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=AYcFToh5lBQ Because that's an assist that is really going to help Cheryl.

#1003

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 10:06 AM

Would this be SS?

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=AYcFToh5lBQ Because that's an assist that is really going to help Cheryl.


Wowza! If they do a salsa anything like this, they may run away with the freestyle. I hope William wears a sequined jumpsuit like this guy - that would be all kinds of awesome cheese.

#1004

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 2:22 PM

I wouldn't be surprised at all if William dances last on Monday. With a salsa inspired freestyle, i'm pretty sure no one else has a chance. So sad.

#1005

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 3:30 PM

That would be ridiculous if Katherine literally never gets the pimp spot even once. And yes, the judges salivating and orgasming over a latin routine as a final impression, is one hell of a final impression to leave. Big boost to William if that happens.

Anyway, next week will be judge's choice and then the Freestyle. So apparently the contestants won't have to do their unlearned style. I think that this might be good news for William, because the Waltz is probably the most boring of the styles left for each couple (Tango for Katherine, Waltz for William, Salsa for Donald). He could have been pretty in it, though.

This is from Katherine's blog:

We made it to the last 3 and that means a pretty intense week ahead. We have our freestyle dance, the judges pick (a dance style that maybe wasn't your best and they'd like to see you improve upon it) & then a dance based on the style that we choose as our favorite. Think we have a few late nights at the studio ahead of us!

For that last one, that's obviously gonna be performed on Tuesday, I assume. And Mark referred to it as "maybe a third dance" or something like that. Can't remember the exact wording, but it gave the impression that only two couples would be performing it. The top two couples, I assume. I think they did that last year too. I don't know why they couldn't just let all three couples perform it, since they're putting in the work, and just let the third place couple perform it unjudged. Unless it's an instant dance...

Also, from Katherine's wording, it sounds like they can choose their favorite style, but do new choreography and music. It sounds like it's not just a case of doing the same exact dance over again. I hope that's the case, because that's more exciting to me than doing the same exact dance over again.

ETA: I fixed Katherine's blog link. I had initially put up last week's instead of this week's.

Edited by QueenL, May 18, 2012 @ 5:41 PM.


#1006

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 4:50 PM

If that's the format I can see this happening:

Judges' pick:
Katherine: Paso Doble or Rumba
William: Jive
Donald: Cha Cha

New dance to their favorite style:
Katherine: Jive or Argentine Tango (Katherine said to have loved those styles the most)
William: Salsa (although I hope it's not Latin style overload for him this week)
Donald: Paso Doble

Also, on a sidenote, the Slow Waltz was only performed twice this season, by Katherine and Donald. Is this a record for the style performed the least amount of times in a season? Freestyle is at least done 3 times.

Edited by PBGamer89, May 18, 2012 @ 4:51 PM.


#1007

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 6:25 PM

From Elsa's link in the media thread. Here's more info on the third dance:

And in the final element of the competition on Tuesday, the three finalists perform a new routine in our "24 Hour Challenge" - in which they will have had 24 hours to pair their dance style of choice to music given to them after Monday night's show. This routine will be scored out of 30 and will round out the judges' scores across both nights.

So it is a totally new dance, and it looks like all three contestants will be performing it. Yay!

Edited by QueenL, May 18, 2012 @ 6:25 PM.


#1008

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 12:21 PM

Twenty-four hour dance? Sounds like the instant dance. It's a little cruel for the finale, and it will only help with scores, not voting. Maybe it will turn into one of those rounds where they all get 30's. The dances on Tuesday shouldn't matter.

#1009

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 12:57 PM

Maybe it will turn into one of those rounds where they all get 30's.

I hope so, as opposed to a round where the judges score up the one they want to win and score low the person who got the most popular votes so teacher's pet gets the mirror-ball trophy in spite of voters. I'm working on not caring who wins just in case that happens.

#1010

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 1:38 PM

...they will have had 24 hours to pair their dance style of choice to music given to them after Monday night's show.

Hummm. Is this another case of throwing an extra little something at the dancers and their Pros in hopes of making the show more interesting? I can see why they might think it was not too much for this group of finalists though. They all have good musicality and they would have to prepare a third number anyway. So, theoretically, it shouldn't be too much of a challenge to work out the steps for a dance they are good at and then fit it to music the final day. But, come to think of it, isn't the final day full of dress rehearsals, blocking and final costume fittings?

I think the difficulty will be mostly for the Pros because it will be harder to throw in moves specific to the music or the lyric - something that, to me, often adds a wow! to the choreography. I guess, on some level, this will separate the celebs who actually learned dances from those who learned a specific piece of choreography? IDK, in reality, it just adds more stress - for all the participants.

#1011

osc630

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 6:43 PM

Donald Driver ‏@Donald_Driver80

The dances this week are freestyle and the judges pick. They pick Argentine Tango. So it will be crazy


So there's that, at least.

#1012

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Posted May 20, 2012 @ 1:50 PM

According to Cheryl's tweet, she and William have the Cha-Cha as the pick from the judges.

That's strange, because I'd think that the Jive would be the most obvious one to improve upon. I think that getting the Cha-Cha is good news for William because he can show the difference between week 1 and now. Plus, it's less physically demanding than the Jive.

Anyway, it looks like everyone's working hard! Donald said in an article that he and Peta are rehearsing for 12 hours a day this week, and the same goes for Mark & Katherine. He tweeted that they were rehearsing from noon until midnight.

Hopefully we'll get some really good dances this week.

#1013

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Posted May 20, 2012 @ 3:03 PM

I'm not surprised William has the cha cha. He should be able to do well with it. While the cha cha seems to be one of the dances most often plagued by bad music, I assume William will get a suitable song that could help the routine be a crowd pleaser. The AT also tends to go over well with the audience, so I expect William and Donald to both do well on Monday. I would be shocked if Katherine manages to win.

#1014

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Posted May 20, 2012 @ 11:41 PM

I wouldn't count on anybody getting suitable music. William and Cheryl just had to do their tango to Sweet Dreams (are made of this). A hot passionate dance to a cold very detached song. Love the song but it couldn't have been more wrong.
Donald did very well early this season with his AT, they just complained there wasn't enough "content.." Donald certainly can do fancy footwork now.
I've thought for a long time now that Katherine was the preselected winner. And I still do. I think Len really wants to make her a star in the US. Marketing someone in the odd niche of classical crossover singer is hard. I guess this is Grassy Knoll stuff.

My bet is 1 st Katherine, 2nd William and Donald 3rd. I hope Donald wins and I'm wrong.

#1015

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 12:29 AM

Cheryl just tweeted that she and William go first. Earlier Mark said he and Katherine are second. Wasn't J.R. third last time? I've been thinking for a while that Donald has this sewn up, and I think getting the crowd-pleasing Argentine Tango, which is so dramatic - and imagine how impressive the lifts will be?, and then going last - well, I think he's our winner. I wanted William to be, but oh well. I like Donald a lot as a person but don't like his dancing, I guess just because he juts his head too far forward. That bothers me so much I haven't paid much attention to anything else about his dancing, but it's enough to make me feel that he's the 3rd best.

Does anybody else know if the winner has gone 1st or 2nd in the past? And if Donald wins, so much for foreign voting making a big difference. And do most who support Donald really think he's the best dancer? (I promise I'm not asking to be testy - I typically vote for my favorite pro and couldn't care less if he or she has the best partner or not - I'm just curious if I'm just dead wrong about the quality of Donald's dancing.)

But I get it. Donald's very very likeable and has a wonderful backstory. People think he's been poorly done-by by mean old Len. William has a great backstory too, but not quite as touching - no sweet wife who saved him - the homelessness and pulling himself up by effort instead of looks trump William's sob story by a good bit - and besides, William's not a footballer or a native American. Katherine comes up short on backstory, on relatability (I find her a bit posh), and her dancing's a bit careful and lacking in impact.

And Mark seems to have less support than, say, Derek, Maks, or even Tristan (going partly on messageboard negativity but also on the DaD, which he lost to Maks in S12 and Tristan this time despite Tristan being a newbie who's never had a finals-viable partner, and Mark has lost DaD to Derek every other time except one "tie" and the Sabrina one.) He also couldn't get Chelsea Kane, the best dancer, into the finals without a 15-point bonus dance and he crapped out with lovely Kristin Cavallari, a great dancer, in week 3 of S13! Why they have so much confidence in him I'll never know - maybe they just love his choreography.

And finally, I think many more women watch this show and vote than men - which makes footballers' popularity surprise me but maybe I'm the odd American woman who never pays any attention to sports. But women doing most of the watching/voting doesn't help Katherine at all, especially paired with Mark. So I predict #1 is Donald; #2 is William; with Katherine 3rd.

Oh and about Len wanting Katherine to be a star - I don't think the producers care what Len wants and they're pulling all the strings, and Len knows that. Think about it - him denying Donald a 10 that he so freely gives the others helps Donald (with the voters at home), not Katherine.

Edited by Elsa, May 21, 2012 @ 1:49 AM.


#1016

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 12:55 AM

... And do most who support Donald really think he's the best dancer? (I promise I'm not asking to be testy - I typically vote for my favorite pro and couldn't care less if he or she has the best partner or not - I'm just curious if I'm just dead wrong about the quality of Donald's dancing.)


I'll be totally honest here - this is only the third time I've watched a full season of DWTS (my previous two were the first and sixth seasons). The only reason I tuned in this season was, in fact, for Donald; I'm also fairly convinced this is the case for many a fellow Packer fan nationwide. We rather enjoy supporting our team, and there's really not all that much to do in Green Bay. (No, really - the football stadium in Green Bay seats about 75% of the city's population. The city really is as small as people think.)

So that got us watching the show. I (and several other people with whom I've discussed this) chose to vote because I was so pleased Donald didn't suck. I don't think he's necessarily the best technical dancer - though his triangular sloping shoulders get a bit of a bad rap, as they appear to affect his posture more than I think they actually do - but he's one heck of a performer.

tl;dr: I'd be rooting for Donald if he sucked, I vote because he doesn't.

Also, I think many more women watch this show and vote than men - which makes footballers' popularity surprise me but maybe I'm the odd American woman who never pays any attention to sports.


Heh. Sometimes I think I'm the odd American woman for paying too much attention to sports. :)

#1017

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 1:05 AM

Still no word yet on Katherine's first dance? I saw someone say the Rumba, but I didn't see any sourcing on that. That's so annoying, if true. The Cha-Cha and AT are bigger crowd pleasers than the Rumba, IMO. They could have given her the Paso Doble. Grrr.

Karina just tweeted this:

Karina Smirnoff ‏@Karina_Smirnoff

Can't wait to c the finals tomorrow. Saw @MarkBallas &@KathJenkins freestyle today. So hot! Amazing!

I wonder if she saw ALL of them and just decided to tweet about theirs? Or if she just saw theirs? If it's the former, that bodes well for them, I think. Today was dress rehearsal day, so I'd assume that she saw all of them, but I'm not sure.

#1018

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 6:28 AM

And do most who support Donald really think he's the best dancer?


I've been watching since S2 - I don't know that Donald is the best dancer left. Katherine is, I think, the better technical dancer, but she comes across as kind of cold. And William is definitely hot, but I don't think he's as good technically.

Actually, I was done with the show and had decided not to bother watching this season, until they announced that Donald would be on.

Heh. Sometimes I think I'm the odd American woman for paying too much attention to sports. :)


Not in Wisconsin, sweetheart. Matter of fact, I follow football much more closely than either my husband or son.

#1019

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 9:29 AM

Go Katherine & Donald!!!!


Predictions: Donald will finally get the 30 after his Argentine tango. Katherine will get a 30 for freestyle. William's freestyle will disappoint.

Edited by Try Again, May 21, 2012 @ 9:29 AM.


#1020

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 12:23 PM

tl;dr: I'd be rooting for Donald if he sucked, I vote because he doesn't.

Exactly ! Good dancer, good person = winner!!!

Not in Wisconsin, sweetheart. Matter of fact, I follow football much more closely than either my husband or son.

Oh yes.