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S24 General Gabbery/Speculation


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#151

peachmangosteen

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 10:18 AM

I personally see Sabrina as someone who's sort of lucked into making some really great moves. Like, I don't think she thought of anything strategically (beyond the very obvious) in giving Colton the idol. Or in whining about Kat being selfish. Or in saying she'll be a bitter juror. She didn't do those things with a strictly strategic purpose in mind, IMO, but they happened to all turn out to be great for her strategically.

I still believe Kim could beat Sabrina. It seems like everyone (everyone being Leif and Jonas because I believe they are actually the only ones to discuss this) just loves Sabrina and that they're all mad at Kim for playing better than they did, but I still think it's possible many of them might decide they would rather reward Kim's play over Sabrina's when the time comes. Especially if Kim can pull off a good FTC.

Edited by peachmangosteen, May 4, 2012 @ 10:20 AM.


#152

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 10:46 AM

I haven't seen any evidence that Kim is a better player than Sabrina, although as lucky as Sabrina has been, Kim's been even luckier.

But Kim has been given more much air time. In contrast, Sabrina disappeared for large parts of the season. Thus, I tend to think that Sabrina won't win. I wouldn't be surprised if she gets booted at 4th because she's unable to win the final immunity challenge and too popular to take to the finals.

But if Sabrina does win, she'll have earned it, since she'll have out finessed Kim with the jury, and to some extent, within the their alliance.

Kim has been portrayed as in charge the entire time, but, when "Kim's" alliance finally had to make tough choices, Kim didn't get her way, but Sabrina did.

#153

peachmangosteen

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 10:51 AM

But if Sabrina does win, she'll have earned it . . .

That I agree with.

I also agree with you on thinking Sabrina's going out at 4. I figure Kim will win the final immunity and get rid of Sabrina at that point.

Kim didn't get her way, but Sabrina did.

As did Chelsea. And Alicia. And I think that this particular boot says more about Kim's game play than Sabrina's. But, I'm coming from the perspective of not seeing Sabrina as a deep strategic thinker and more of an emotional/'tell it like it is' type of person/player.

Although, I am still open to the possibility that the editing is to blame for how I personally view Sabrina. I'm interested to see what she has to say in her after the show interviews.

Edited by peachmangosteen, May 4, 2012 @ 10:54 AM.


#154

observer432

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 11:02 AM

Interesting conversation between Chelsea, Sabrina, Tarzan and Christina after reward challenge regarding Kat boot. Why would Sabrina and Chelsea discuss Kat boot in front of Tarzan and Christina who are supposedly on the outs? Who are the thinkers Tarzan is referring to---Alicia and Kim? Is Kim really the mastermind or a spokesperson? Note to self---if you want a lot of air time on survivor be good looking or a "character" and speak well and succinctly.

Would love for this to be the year the "goat" wins it. Tarzan has made a strong showing throughout the season. And I think Christina is quite intelligent and has been playing a "Watch and listen , anyone but me" strategy.

Editing this season does not give me any sense of who the jury is tight with...I think it is hard to vote against someone you like. Tarzan, Christina and Alicia/Kim would be an interesting showdown.

Finally, I would be counting votes and if bringing a goat be worried about splitting the non-goat votes and then the goat winning it.

#155

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 11:16 AM

Because I have yet to see a single one of the men take responsibility for their stupidity in going to TC after having won immunity, for having given Colton his way when they didn't have to.


I hope if any of those guys say or ask something obnoxious to any woman in F3, they are reminded of this. That, in an of itself, would probably earn votes for whoever's made it to the end by making those guys realize they were totally dumb, and terribly outwitted and outplayed.

I still chuckle everytime I am reminded of Christina thinking she was going to go on an immunity run. Where? When? We're waiting....

If I were Sabrina, I'd talk to everyone except Kim and Alicia about voting Kim out... NOW. Or at least next week. If any of them want to make it to the end, they have to get rid of her and stop following her every word like she's Brian Heidik, lounging in a hammock.

Still not sure why Tarzan wasn't taken out instead of Kat, but if Kim thinks taking him to the end is going to endear herself to her former allies, or the men she's beaten, she's seriously underestimated their thought processes.

#156

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 1:37 PM

I heard in the episode thread that if there was something that was shown in the previews that spoils something in the upcoming ep that it could be talked about here in this thread. I just wanted to doublecheck with everyone here if that was ok before I posted it. So.....should I?

#157

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 2:12 PM

I'm curious to know your speculation, bawarner. I'm sure someone on here can let you know if it's okay to post it.

#158

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 3:08 PM

I think bawarner might be referring to what I posted in the spoiler folder. I didn't think it was appropriate to post it in here.

#159

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 5:51 PM

LanceM - yes, that's exactly what I was talking about:) Until I hear for sure that it's ok to post here, I'll hold off 'cause I know I hate being spoiled about stuff in a thread I think is "safe".


JstaPwn - not sure how you feel about the spoiler thread but it looks pretty safe as far as there not being any earth-shattering info. so you may want to check it out.

#160

peachmangosteen

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 5:54 PM

If it was in the promo, it is not considered a spoiler.

I can't figure out what you're referring to, bawarner. I wasn't playing particularly close attention though. Unless you mean you already know a certain spoiler and feel the promo hinted at it or something?

#161

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 6:55 PM

I'm going to be extra cautious and put the info under a spoiler bar. Better safe than sorry:)

Spoiler


#162

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Posted May 4, 2012 @ 9:58 PM

Well technically it's not a spoiler because it was in the preview. But since it's already being talked about there, let's leave it in there for now. Thanks.

#163

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 9:40 AM

So, finale speculation. I'm thinking Kim/Alicia/Chelsea F3 with Kim winning and a Troyzan (possibly Sabrina) fan favorite win. I'm hoping Kim wins the game and FF.

I really want a final with Kim and Sabrina in it, because I think it'd be super rad and interesting, but I fear Sabrina can beat Kim (But also still feel like Kim could win against Sabrina.) and I want Kim winning.

I'm also scared of Alicia actually. I don't think she's really hated by the jury. Probably not particularly liked (except by Tarzan), but I don't get overwhelming hate at all.

I see Christina and Chelsea as people with little chance of getting votes. I think they'll mostly just be ignored if they're in the finals.

Edited by peachmangosteen, May 10, 2012 @ 9:54 AM.


#164

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 10:44 AM

I'm also scared of Alicia actually. I don't think she's really hated by the jury. Probably not particularly liked (except by Tarzan), but I don't get overwhelming hate at all.


Maybe not yet, but I'm confident that once she opens her mouth to answer the jury's questions, she will be. IMO, the only person who could give Kim a run for her money at FTC is Sabrina. None of the rest of them have the verbal skills, emotional stability, or persuasiveness to win.

#165

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 10:49 AM

So, finale speculation. I'm thinking Kim/Alicia/Chelsea F3 with Kim winning and a Troyzan (possibly Sabrina) fan favorite win. I'm hoping Kim wins the game and FF.

Am I in an alternate universe suddenly where Troyzan came off well enough for that?

Edited by WileyCoyote, May 10, 2012 @ 10:51 AM.


#166

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 11:24 AM

I see Christina and Chelsea as people with little chance of getting votes. I think they'll mostly just be ignored if they're in the finals.


Which is exactly why Kim should be angling to make this her final 3.

#167

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 11:31 AM

"""
Probably so. How much time do the F5 and F4 evictees spend, respectively, at Ponderosa? Does Kim need to be worried about the apparently-more-likable-than-her Sabrina spending much time there, and potentially spreading a little anti-Kim butter around? Or would Sabrina have much reason to do so--even if bitter, as she threatened, see seems a bit too rational to me to start lobbying for any of the remaining women over Kim.

#168

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 11:46 AM

Well, Russell won fan favorite. Twice. I personally hate Troy, but I suspect the general audience, and the voting audience, enjoys him. And it is almost always won by a man.

I agree, bucconeer. Alicia would probably be horrible at FTC. Especially now that she is very confident in her delusion that she's running everything. Sabrina really is the only threat to Kim, from a game and jury perfomance stand point.

ETA: I really hope that Sabrina wouldn't make good on her threat to poison the jury if she's voted off. I don't see her as much of a player like many others do and think she's more emotionally motivated, but I still feel like she ultimately would vote for Kim.

You might be on to something with Kim's best bet being to take C & C, SimonHumboldt. Obviously Sabrina is her only real threat, but Alicia is a potential 'well, I don't wanna vote for Kim so' vote. Christina is an obvious 'not getting any votes no matter what' I'd think. And I think Cheslea mostly is to and that she'll probably not be a great jury performer.

Edited by peachmangosteen, May 10, 2012 @ 11:54 AM.


#169

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 1:17 PM

Probably so. How much time do the F5 and F4 evictees spend, respectively, at Ponderosa? Does Kim need to be worried about the apparently-more-likable-than-her Sabrina spending much time there, and potentially spreading a little anti-Kim butter around?


To me, Sabrina is about the least likely contestant of this entire cast to be bitter in Ponderosa or on a jury. You can't really tell that without watching the secret scenes though. In the secret scenes, she talks about how Kim is playing both sides against each other, lying to everyone, but says so in an admiring respect (like "this girl has some serious game"). Sabrina even implicates herself as being just as bad as Kim, but says she is making it seem like it's all Kim's fault (which indicates she doesn't have some phony sense of morality about it).

Sabrina is the only one out there other than Kim who understands this is a game show (well Tarzan got it too I think) and is aware of all the politics. She will vote for who is the 'best strategist'. When Sabrina doesn't get picked for rewards, she never gets upset either (see last week). Very logical player.

She threatened to be a bitter jury member as a tactical move IMO. I can already predict her FTC question; "so so, tell me why you've played a better game than your rival, what moves have you made (that type of thing)".

Chelsea would be the emotional one to spread anti-Kim butter. Kim sometimes makes fun of other people to Chelsea (Alicia is delusional, Kat is irresponsible, etc). Mild stuff, but Chelsea would prob run to Ponderosa and tell everyone what Kim said about them.

Edited by xr11576, May 10, 2012 @ 1:19 PM.


#170

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 1:45 PM

Would there be a way for Sabrina to approach Christina and Alicia to point out that the jury is a bunch of white people who might unconsciously pick the white candidate so they ought to get rid of Kim and Chelsea, without coming across as racist on camera?

#171

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 6:06 PM

Am I in an alternate universe suddenly where Troyzan came off well enough for that?


Not really a lot of likable players this year, are there? My first choice for fan favourite by about a million miles would be Kim, but a lot of people find her cold and/or overrated. Other than Kim, I don't really like any of them, in the "this seems like a person who I would like to give $100,000 to just for being nice" sense. (Take Panama or Cook Islands as a contrast: I would happily give $100,000 to any member of either of those casts. Yes, even Adam or Ruth Marie.) My second choice for fan favourite would be Kat, because she entertained me. After that? Well, after that are the 'zans. I wouldn't say either played well or was likable, but Greg was funny, and Troy did the best he could given his own social limitations. (That's damn faint praise, but given how many players don't even seem to try, I give him points for trying.)

I would wager most fans, especially casual fans, like Sabrina more than I do, and I think she might be the frontrunner for FF. But Troy is probably right up there with her.

Would there be a way for Sabrina to approach Christina and Alicia to point out that the jury is a bunch of white people who might unconsciously pick the white candidate so they ought to get rid of Kim and Chelsea, without coming across as racist on camera?


I agree that that's Sabrina's best F3, and I agree with your premise that this jury, in particular, might be unconsciously biased, but I don't think she needs to phrase it that way. Take out Chelsea next week, and then at F4, not "Kim's white" but "Kim's too big a threat".

#172

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 8:15 PM

I would wager most fans, especially casual fans, like Sabrina more than I do, and I think she might be the frontrunner for FF. But Troy is probably right up there with her.



I wouldn't count out Chelsea winning FF. She may not be the most liked on this website but she seems to a big following. She has by far the most twitter followers of anyone in the cast and last night during Jeff Probst's live tweeting he ran on informal poll on who his followers wanted to win and he said the most votes went to Chelsea followed by Kim. My guess would be that it is a 3 way race between Troy, Chelsea nd Kim.

Edited by LanceM, May 10, 2012 @ 8:16 PM.


#173

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Posted May 10, 2012 @ 10:08 PM

Shouldn't there be a movement to get the Fan Fave vote behind Bill, since he got demolished by Hurricane Colton? Like I said, the order of preference for me would be: Bill, Colton's appendix, pig.

Not really caring about Days 37-39. I do have theories on how the Reunion will shake out. I will say this: if either Chelsea, Kim and/or Sabrina or not in the F3, Probst is not going to spend more than a minute on them. Thanks to their interactions with the Boy Queen, Christina and Alicia will get camera time. Not surprisingly, Alicia will not have a damn issue with her behavior in the game. Here's how I reckon things will shake out:

Segment 1: Probst interviews the winner and her runners-up. Like Sophie last season, he will not go back to them unless one of 'em finishes in the top two for Fan Fave.

Segment 2: "Troyzan: The Closet Thing To An Alpha Male This Season."

Segment 3: "Tarzan: Is He Really Smart?" Tarzan will mumble stuff like, I dunno, "Quantum Entanglement" or "Online Photosynthesis" and look weird. Followed by "Kat: Is She That Dumb?" The answer: Yes. Yes, she is.

Segment 4: "Colton: The Only Thing People Will Remember About This Season When S25 Arrives." After a highlights montage of his "greatest hits" (not including the "secret scene" where he was ripping on Christina and making the "slant eyes" gesture), he will be booed by the crowd. Natch, he will do the "Yeah, I'm soooooooo evil" gestures with his hands. He will show little to no shame. Bill will be brought in, but he won't have much time to apply a blowtorch to Colton's soul. Like I said, Alicia and Christina will be brought in. While Probst is on record as to saying he wouldn't bring the Boy Queen back, he will make the case to the crowd, grinding on the Boy Queen to the horror of viewers, because he thinks that what we want. Sadly, Probst will probably win a fourth Emmy in September.

Segment 5: Mix-and-match. The three alphas Manono will get a spotlight, as will Leif. Kourtney gets fifteen seconds because she would be more likely to come back than Colton. Nina and Jonas? Skipped.I'm putting the over/under on skipped players at four.

Segment 6: Fan Fave vote. Kim wins and zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZzzzzzz.

Segment 7: Pimping S25. Everything is different, new twist, silver anniversary season, same hopes, big failure. Probst pimps the online auction, fade to credits, and good friggin' riddance.

Edited by Lantern7, May 10, 2012 @ 10:12 PM.


#174

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Posted May 11, 2012 @ 1:53 AM

I'm still terrified that F3 could be Chelsea, Christina, and Alicia, based solely on their postgame behavior: Christina's expensive Web site with expensive photography; and Chelsea's Tweets supporting Alicia as if they are best buds; and, relative silence from Kim.

Please please please let me be wrong.

#175

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Posted May 11, 2012 @ 1:59 AM

Segment 5: Mix-and-match. The three alphas Manono will get a spotlight, as will Leif. Kourtney gets fifteen seconds because she would be more likely to come back than Colton. Nina and Jonas? Skipped. I'm putting the over/under on skipped players at four.

You forgot Monica.

#176

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Posted May 11, 2012 @ 2:42 AM

Lantern7, that prediction of the Reunion was brilliant! I've already used up my "likes" but I wanted to definitely give that post props, kudos, huzzahs, etc. :)

#177

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Posted May 11, 2012 @ 10:18 AM

The twitter situation is wigging me out too, FrogsRule. Sophie's twitter presence last season is something that really made it clear to me that she was gonna win. Chelsea's this season is scaring me. Does Kim even have a twitter?

Edited by peachmangosteen, May 11, 2012 @ 10:19 AM.


#178

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Posted May 11, 2012 @ 12:39 PM

Kristen . . . I didn't forget about Monica, but I'm sure Probst will.

#179

trustno1

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Posted May 11, 2012 @ 4:17 PM

Can I ask a question - is this the first time the final 5 are all female?

#180

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Posted May 11, 2012 @ 4:51 PM

Yes. Micronesia (season sixteen) would've been the first, but Erik won immunity at F6, forcing the five women to vote out one of their own. Still, that season gave us an all-female F4, a record for the highest number of castaways in an all-female finale until One World came along with this season's all-female F5.