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S24 General Gabbery/Speculation


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#91

SpeciousLogic

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Posted Apr 13, 2012 @ 9:39 PM

Didn't Hatch step down first under the assumption that either player would take him, Rudy because he promised to, Kelly because she didn't think she would beat Rudy in a final vote?


I'm sure he was hoping that, but he certainly seemed to be pulling for Rudy the entire time while he was waiting (wasn't he eating an orange at one point? weird random memory), and I thought he felt like he'd blown it when Kelly won.

Regardless, it's a very rare winner who can't point to some crazy turn of events or alignment of stars that ultimately made the difference in winning that season. If one criterion for being a "great player" is that you won without having any luck fall your way, that would be a mighty short list, possibly consisting of no one.

#92

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Posted Apr 13, 2012 @ 10:39 PM

I'm sure he was hoping that, but he certainly seemed to be pulling for Rudy the entire time while he was waiting...


Well, yeah, because he needed Rudy to think he was pulling for Rudy so that he'd look like he hadn't broken their deal. I seem to remember that he stepped down so that he wouldn't have to boot Rudy, and fully expected Kelly to win and boot Rudy. (From a Season 24 perspective, similarly, I think Kim's worst strategic moment so far has been her big grin when Troy lost the IC in the last episode.)

But in a broader sense, I agree with SpeciousLogic. Lots of luck in this game. Even the winners I can point to who didn't have any obvious luck moments were lucky to be playing against the particular players they were playing against. If Chris Daughtery's tribe in Vanuatu had been five hunks and four pear-shaped guys instead of the reverse, he's the first to go. I could be wrong (haven't really gotten into any of the beyond-the-show stuff, ever), but I seem to recall hearing that Sandra is the first to admit that if she ever ended up on a tribe that cared about athletic prowess at all, she'd be the first to go.

#93

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Posted Apr 13, 2012 @ 11:10 PM

Okay, you guys are making a convincing case for luck being a big factor. So what then is with all the talk of Kim being a great player? If the ball bounced a little differently, would there be another "great" player this season? Or do we basically make a distinction (to continue on the poker line of thought I was developing in the episode thread) between seasons where there are one or more players with enough wits about them to play the good cards they are dealt and avoid self destructing while others around them do self-destruct (or at least don't have the luck with them and get behind on numbers), compared to seasons where it's like an online play money poker table where everyone just plays wildly and randomly, and by the luck of the draw, someone randomly lurches into the winner's circle?

ETA: And really, then, aren't those just "minimally competents" vs. incompetents? We would need, I think, to see a season where everyone playing is highly intelligent and knowledgable about the game, or a series of such seasons with the same people playing each other, to get a sense of who is "great" and not just someone who is able to avoid blowing it when stuff falls in their laps. Again, like in poker: at lower stakes someone can be consistently profitable by playing "ABC poker", where they just sit and wait for good cards and play them straightforwardly and never bluff and never do anything crazy. This works at those lower stakes because the other players around them have huge "leaks" in their games. But if you had a game where you had a few of these solid, straightforward players, plus a few really sharp, creative players, and no idiots, the solid, straightforward players would go nowhere.

Edited by neplusultra, Apr 13, 2012 @ 11:17 PM.


#94

Yogurt Baron

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 12:27 AM

For me, it's what you do with your luck. In my opinion, the only luck Kim has had is:

a)., ending up on the stronger of the two original tribes, which is now set to Pagong the weaker of the two original tribes (ten players had this much luck), and;
b)., not getting injured and being medically evacuated (nine players had this much luck), and;
c)., never ending up on the same tribe as Colton and having to deal with his unusual power over the men and risk being voted out by him (five players had this much luck).

So for me, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kat, and Nina have had exactly as much luck as Kim. So what separates Kim from the others as a player? Leaving aside her physical advantages over Nina (which could be called a form of luck too), what I think separates her from the others is the relationships she's building with the other side. After the tribe swap, she got Jay and Troy to work with her; Sabrina spent that whole time blissfully unaware, thinking the women were sticking together. Which they did, but Kim built herself in an option; Sabrina didn't.

In summary, then, luck is what happens to you, and is a huge big part of the game; but everybody has a certain amount of luck, so it usually comes down to how those players use their luck. What's frustrating about the PROD (to carry on a conversation from elsewhere) or a really stacked tribe swap, like what happened to Michelle in Fiji, is that they reduce the game to being 100% luck, when it rarely is otherwise. Other than Paschal and Michelle, and Hatch if you believe that Greg actually cast his tie-breaking vote by "pick a number" (I think he's said he didn't really, and that that was all a show), I can't really think of anyone who's won or lost exclusively due to luck. You can always overcome bad luck if you're a good player, or squander good luck if you're not so good. (Even Michelle could have convinced her new tribe's dominant alliance to cannibalize itself, like Natalie White did in Samoa, and Paschal could have switched his vote---the jury might've seen him as an evil backstabber, but you cross that bridge when you come to it, and that's a better problem to have than coming fourth and not seeing the jury at all.)

Here's another example: Lex in Africa. It's been said that Lex getting sick at the F3 IC probably lost him that game, because if he hadn't been sick, he'd have won the challenge and then the game. But even after he lost F3, he had options. He could have convinced Kim that he was more beatable than Ethan. He could have forged a closer relationship with her throughout the game, so that she'd pick him over Ethan if that situation arose. He didn't or couldn't do those things. Lex lost in part because of his bad luck, but also in part because he didn't play the game well enough to compensate for his bad luck.

#95

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 2:04 AM

I don't have that detailed memory of earlier seasons (though I did watch them), so I can't speak to any of that. But one thing you made me ponder: is Kim really in a better position than Sabrina in particular? I almost wonder if the relationships she made with Jay and Troyzan could come back to bite her if they turn into a bitter jury. They seem mellow enough at Ponderosa right now, but still: while many of us might wish that jury members were more willing to say "okay, you got me, well played"* and reward those who tricked them with the money, they often feel bitter and betrayed instead and uninclined to hand over a million dollars to the person who assured them they were tight and then backstabbed them.

*For this reason, sometimes I think the jury should be superfans or past players instead of the people who just got voted out.

#96

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 4:01 AM

The idea of great players is mostly a thought experiment. My basic idea is "if this person played 100 times, do they have the general qualities and skills where they would win more than expected (5-6.2% depending how many players we're starting with). Yul happens to share my interpretation, which makes me happy, and he thinks he'd win maybe 10-15 out of those 100 games. I think he's the best ever, and that's about all I'd expect him to win, which tells you how much I think luck is involved. Of course, if my theory is right, Sandra defied totally crazy odds.

As for Kim: she's athletic enough to not be a liability in the team phase, not athletic enough to be an obvious immunity threat (though I do think she's in good shape once Troy goes; she might want to throw a couple frankly), clearly has a good strategic mind, absolutely has personal charisma to convince people she's on their side, and is an attractive woman without being an overt flirt, which I think is the ideal bit there. She's also not overtly cocky and is keeping her idol relatively quiet. If she can manage the jury and not choke at FTC, those are a *lot* of good Survivor qualities. The only major flaw was over working Troy this past episode.

*For this reason, sometimes I think the jury should be superfans or past players instead of the people who just got voted out.


That's a much different game! I love this method, frankly. You have to not be a dick, and (more importantly) people get to judge you based on the entirety of the experience, not just like 1/60 of it.

Edited by enlightenedbum, Apr 14, 2012 @ 4:01 AM.


#97

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 4:40 AM

I have to wonder how the voting would change if the Final TC was held at the Reunion, after everyone has had a chance to see the weekly shows.

Not advocating that. Although it might be fun for them to do it exactly once. Just to freak everyone out.

Kind of like BB Season One. I stopped watching BB after about Season 3, but I liked the final vote when everyone could see what was happening after they were voted out.

#98

SpeciousLogic

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 8:08 AM

(Even Michelle could have convinced her new tribe's dominant alliance to cannibalize itself, like Natalie White did in Samoa,


This is probably the only thing I'd disagree with in Yogurt Baron's post, considering that they went to TC directly after losing the IC and weren't allowed to talk to each other. The only words Michelle was able to say were in direct response to Jeff's questions at TC, and I think there was essentially nothing she could have said to convince the rest of the tribe to vote against tribal lines at that point. That's why I suggest that one of the few things that might topple Kim (aside from a gross error) is being Michelle'd, or the victim of a random twist that leaves her with virtually no chance to recover.

As for Kim: she's athletic enough to not be a liability in the team phase, not athletic enough to be an obvious immunity threat (though I do think she's in good shape once Troy goes; she might want to throw a couple frankly), clearly has a good strategic mind, absolutely has personal charisma to convince people she's on their side, and is an attractive woman without being an overt flirt, which I think is the ideal bit there. She's also not overtly cocky and is keeping her idol relatively quiet. If she can manage the jury and not choke at FTC, those are a *lot* of good Survivor qualities. The only major flaw was over working Troy this past episode.


I'd add that her body language at the last IC could have been less telling, but otherwise I agree, and all of those traits are why I enjoy watching her work. I'm not sure we've ever seen anyone quite like her.

I'm also not ready to discount Sabrina, who may actually be in a slightly better position (lacking the possible target on her back) and who also possesses some of those skills.

#99

Funeris Nocturnum

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 10:56 AM

But one thing you made me ponder: is Kim really in a better position than Sabrina in particular? I almost wonder if the relationships she made with Jay and Troyzan could come back to bite her if they turn into a bitter jury. They seem mellow enough at Ponderosa right now, but still: while many of us might wish that jury members were more willing to say "okay, you got me, well played"* and reward those who tricked them with the money, they often feel bitter and betrayed instead and uninclined to hand over a million dollars to the person who assured them they were tight and then backstabbed them.


It's not just Ponderosa, though. If these post-exit interviews are to be believed, the jurors don't seem to grasp the extent of Kim's lies and manipulation on them until after they've seen the actual episodes. Which begs to question how bitter the actual FTC will be.

#100

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 12:48 PM

I'm also not ready to discount Sabrina, who may actually be in a slightly better position (lacking the possible target on her back) and who also possesses some of those skills.


Yeah, I agree. Less forceful of a leader, and the edit isn't trying to explain her win yet, so I remain skeptical on that front.

#101

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 5:39 PM

One thing I really disagree with is trying to predict winners based on the edit. I think that type of meta-analysis really takes a lot of the fun out of the game, and (thankfully) isn't terribly reliable as we saw with Fabio in particular.

#102

Yogurt Baron

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 7:06 PM

The only words Michelle was able to say were in direct response to Jeff's questions at TC, and I think there was essentially nothing she could have said to convince the rest of the tribe to vote against tribal lines at that point.


Oh, I agree. Michelle was doomed, and it was 99.99% luck (or producer interference, if you're a paranoid sort; when the same thing happened to Amber in ASS that happened to Michelle in Fiji, it seemed pretty convenient from a drama-creating perspective, didn't it?). My point was, in theory, she could have still avoided the ax that night (though that would have taken good luck of a much greater magnitude than the bad luck of ending up on the wrong end of the swap.)

One thing I really disagree with is trying to predict winners based on the edit. I think that type of meta-analysis really takes a lot of the fun out of the game, and (thankfully) isn't terribly reliable as we saw with Fabio in particular.


I agree, but I think the blame lies on the unsubtle editing of late moreso than on the viewers who do this. Example: South Pacific Rick. Up until the moment he was eliminated, I think he was playing the least-awful game of all the people out there, not that that's a big achievement when you're up against Coach and Brandon. (The few things I'm starting to see that Sophie did well all came at the very end of the game.) From a game perspective, there was no reason at, say, F7, not to think Rick could win. But the fact that he'd spoken two words the whole game kind of spoiled that he wouldn't win. If I'd have predicted a Rick win (which I was certainly rooting for), I'd have been laughed out of the room, because, "Who's Rick?"

I don't think a "bad edit" guarantees that you can't win (the line between villain/antihero is pretty thin), but I think a completely-invisible edit does (though Natalie White, HVV Sandra and SP Sophie were relatively pretty invisible - all moreso than anyone from this season except maybe Leif, I'd say). Rick's edit proved he couldn't win. Brett's edit proved he couldn't win Samoa. Purple Kelly in Nicaragua, same deal. Thankfully, we don't have anyone like that on this season, IMO.

From an edit perspective, I think any of them could win except probably Leif...but even that doesn't seem that much more out of the realm of possibility than Fabio or Sophie did based on editing.

#103

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 8:30 PM

I'm in the camp of those who think Sophie's game was masterful. It may not have been the most entertaining game but we had Cockroach to fill that role. She simply created an alliance within an alliance, stuck to it, identified all threats to it and neutralized them, squashed any attempt by anyone within her alliance to rock the boat, and picked the perect people to sit next to her in the final 3: a smarmy ass-kisser and an insane person.

#104

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Posted Apr 16, 2012 @ 9:37 AM

There's a discussion going on in the current episode thread which is very interesting but increasingly off topic, so I'm moving my end of it here. It has to do with whether or not all six women are acting in their own best interest to stick together and not upset the apple cart. I had written that while I agree the core four (Kim, Chelsea, Kat, and Sabrina) are best off sticking with the status quo:

I don't however agree that Alicia and Christina are acting in their own best interests. Their best play would be to create an alliance with the remaining men, with a core alliance that includes the two of them and Leif and Tarzan. Then they would eliminate all the other women, followed by eliminating Troyzan and Jay, and letting the chips fall where they may after that. One of the two of them could actually have a shot at winning if the F4 is as I described, or at least as long as the F3 includes three of those four. If anyone outside that group of four (Alicia, Christina, Leif, and Tarzan) is in the F3, the chance for Alicia or Christina to get enough jury votes to win drops to near zero.



Funeris nocturnum countered:

neplusultra, your scenario proposes that two probable immunity run threats be allowed to survive all the way to F6, which compromises any F3 combination involving the proposed core alliance. Even if neither of said players go on an immunity run, Leif and Tarzan would sooner side with the men rather than the women come F6. Alicia and Christina baking their hopes on being an F3 goat and an F6 all-female free-for-all (respectively) seems more viable.



Okay, first of all everything I'm saying here revolves around the game theory of how each player should play if their primary goal is to get the million dollars. In reality, they may not be fixated on that as their primary goal, or (even more likely) they may not understand what the best moves are to give them the best chance at the million. But this discussion is about what they should be doing out of self interest, to give themselves the highest chance to win the million.

But you're right, it's a good point about the danger of keeping Troyzan and Jay around until F6. So I'll amend my scenario and say they should vote one of the two out at F8, then take out the other one at any point thereafter when he doesn't have immunity. Any earlier than F8 and they risk a counter-alliance forming which is larger than their four.

I don't however see why you're saying Leif and Tarzan would want to side with the other men at F6. They can't beat either Jay or Troyzan.

Your last sentence, I don't understand either. How does being an F3 goat give you your best chance at a million dollars? And how does an "F6 free for all" offer any reasonable chance for Christina? Assuming she can actually work her way into the F3 from there (very unlikely), how is she going to win the most jury votes against two other women?

Again: understand that I'm not talking about what these players might think, with faulty logic and faulty understanding of what is going on. I'm talking about what "chess moves" would actually give them the best chance of winning the game. And I stand by my opinion that for Tarzan, Leif, Alicia, and Christina, they are all so "goaty" that their only chance to win is by giving the jury nothing but goats to choose from: each other. I submit that if any of those four go to FTC and face anyone but two of the other members of that group of four, their chances to win the game drop to essentially zip.

#105

Funeris Nocturnum

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Posted Apr 16, 2012 @ 10:28 AM

Again: understand that I'm not talking about what these players might think, with faulty logic and faulty understanding of what is going on. I'm talking about what "chess moves" would actually give them the best chance of winning the game.


My last two sentences weren't actually taking these into account, so feel free to ignore them.

#106

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Posted Apr 16, 2012 @ 6:02 PM

My original statement that you were responding to when you said this:

I don't however agree that Alicia and Christina are acting in their own best interests.


was based on

what these players might think, with faulty logic and faulty understanding of what is going on.


So I agree with you: I don't think Alicia and Christina are playing well. They're not actually acting in their own best interests. My point is, they think they are.

At least twice I can think of (Shane in Panama, Coach last season), we've seen a player almost randomly pick an alliance based on who was nearby, and then consider that alliance basically unshakeable to the end. The kind of mindset that lends one to think "I'm just going to pick the first few people I see to be in an alliance with me, and that'll work, and all these wishy-washy people who change their alliances up over the course of the game are idiots, because I've got my super-random-alliance, GAME OVER!", usually leads to players playing very inflexibly. Shane and Coach certainly did. Once you've got your random-person alliance, why would you change it? You've already said that that's the alliance and that it's game over.

Recall the first episode of this season. Alicia picked her random-people alliance: herself, Kim, Sabrina, Chelsea, with Kat as a fifth. I'd be willing to bet that, in her mind, that's still locked in, and always will be. So Alicia probably thinks she's in a four within a six - not such a bad place to be. If I were me, in her place, I'd probably try to work out something on the side with Leif and Greg---minimum winning coalitions and all that---but if I were her, I'd think, jeez, I've got my six, and then I've got my four within my six, and who's going to beat me? They're no match for me, especially not the horse-faced bridal shop lady, whatshername; I'm Alicia, I'm awesome.

And in terms of Christina---no idea what, if anything, is going on in her head. She may think that once it's F6, the strong players will gun for each other and she'll be able to UTR her way to F3 and win over a jury. Again: it's all about their faulty logic. And a lot of faulty logic on Survivor is predicated on players thinking they're better or more popular than they are.

So, yes, from a game-theory perspective, Alicia and Christina aren't playing well. But I can see why they think they are.

#107

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Posted Apr 16, 2012 @ 7:00 PM

So I agree with you: I don't think Alicia and Christina are playing well. They're not actually acting in their own best interests. My point is, they think they are.


It's almost never a good idea to argue with someone about the nature of a previous round of argument, so I'll just say very briefly that I understood people (I don't remember if that included you) to be saying that Alicia and Christina are playing a smart, rational game to be what someone derisively called "KimBots" (following along with the women's alliance without making waves).

And my argument is that no, it's not smart for them to be doing that, and they should be looking for another plan. I believe the plan I laid out is the only viable plan for them, actually; but I'm always willing to listen to alternate proposals.

And a lot of faulty logic on Survivor is predicated on players thinking they're better or more popular than they are.


I definitely agree that one big hurdle for the four players I think need to align to have a chance to win (Tarzan, Leif, Christina, Alicia) is the emotional/psychological one of confronting the fact that they are the least liked/respected people still in the game, and that this is the reason they need to band together, to avoid giving the jury anyone with a smidgen of popularity to choose instead. That's tough, to swallow one's ego and accept that reality. But if they did, they would earn respect among savvy Survivor watchers as among the greatest players ever IMO, regardless of which of the four of them actually won (and even though a couple of them are pretty unlikeable).

#108

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Posted Apr 16, 2012 @ 7:15 PM

At least twice I can think of (Shane in Panama, Coach last season), we've seen a player almost randomly pick an alliance based on who was nearby ...

Except Coach didn't (another plug: listen to Sophie's podcast with Dom & Colin). But since it was kinda presented that way on TV, I'll let it slide.

#109

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Posted Apr 17, 2012 @ 11:24 AM

Bringing something over from the episode thread since it fits better here.

It's just that I can't help but think:

Troy + Tarzan/Greg + Leif + Christine + Alicia = 5

Kim + Chelsea + Sabrina + Kat = 4

It just isn't gonna happen, IMO. For us, yes, it might make some sense (I don't particularly agree that it's absolutely a better bet for Alicia or even Christina), but for them, they don't see it that way. Why would those 5 randomly team up when they don't have any real connection and, in some cases, don't get along in any way? Now, if Sabrina were to think Kim needs to bet taken out, it's somewhat possible she could grab Alicia/Christina and maybe Kat and then they'd join with the guys (probably just for that 1 vote) and get her out. That is maybe a possibility.

But, even then, I think Kat, Chelsea, and Sabrina all feel pretty sure they're in the finals with Kim and they also may not see just how much Kim has more of a FTC argument for the win than they do. Alicia may also believe she's higher up in the alliance than she seemingly really is. She did create the alliance, if editing is to be believed. Christina seems to value stability and that is why she didn't initially join the guys and why she almost certainly won't now. Also, she seems to be thinking the way Edna did, that there are no sub-alliances and at F6 everyone will just fight it out individually.

Now, we know some of them are wrong in how they're thinking, but I can understand why they think it and I can see why they wouldn't see much benefit to teaming up with Tarzan/Leif/Troy.

Except Coach didn't

What do you mean by that? I didn't really follow the exit stuff last season, so I'd be interested to know how that alliance really came about.

Edited by peachmangosteen, Apr 17, 2012 @ 11:26 AM.


#110

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Posted Apr 17, 2012 @ 12:12 PM

What do you mean by that? I didn't really follow the exit stuff last season, so I'd be interested to know how that alliance really came about.

Basically, on the TV show, it was made to look like those five people just happened to be sitting on the beach at night and the core Upolu alliance was born haphazardly on the spot (Coach, Sophie, Albert, Brandon and Rick). One of the main criticisms I've seen about Sophie is that she was so lucky she was sitting on the beach instead of, say, Mikayla, for example. But it has since come out in some interviews that that meeting was not by chance. It was carefully orchestrated.

Edited by Bob Sambob, Apr 17, 2012 @ 12:16 PM.


#111

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Posted Apr 17, 2012 @ 1:01 PM

Why would those 5 randomly team up when they don't have any real connection and, in some cases, don't get along in any way?

Because it's their only hope. Otherwise they get picked off one by one, and they must surely know that. Well, the men do.* Alicia and Christina appear to believe they'll make it to the all-women team, at which time.... they'll be picked off one-by-one. Christina seems to think that when it's all women she will unleash the awesomeness she's kept under a basket until now. I'm not holding my breath. Alicia thinks she is #N in the alliance, where N≠5 or 6. Deluded, I suspect. At least Christina knows she is going to have to work.

ETA: *Or do they? I wonder....

Edited by OurJames, Apr 17, 2012 @ 1:02 PM.


#112

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Posted Apr 17, 2012 @ 2:02 PM

It just isn't gonna happen, IMO. For us, yes, it might make some sense (I don't particularly agree that it's absolutely a better bet for Alicia or even Christina), but for them, they don't see it that way.


I agree that they don't see it that way--won't dispute that for a microsecond. You're right: it's not going to happen. But setting aside that point of agreement, just in terms of game theory: why do you think it's not a better bet for Alicia or Christina? Let's establish for the sake of argument that each player plays to maximize their chance to win a million dollars. How can Alicia or Christina do that by sticking with the women? Do you dispute what OurJames says in the post right above mine (which I cosign, 100%)?

#113

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Posted Apr 18, 2012 @ 6:50 AM

Let's establish for the sake of argument that each player plays to maximize their chance to win a million dollars. How can Alicia or Christina do that by sticking with the women?


I think that if Troy makes it to the final, he wins. If it's Leif and two women, I'm not sure who wins. If the remaining women have managed to alienate enough members of the jury, even Gregzan could win. So it sorta makes sense that even Alicia and Christina don't want any men with them at the end. And Troy is a challenge threat, who could beat them for individual immunity and make it to the end. Alicia mistakenly thinks she's in a final four alliance and believes she has a shot at immunity to make it to final 3 if it's against her alliance mates. Christina may be hoping that she can be a swing vote when the alliance has to cannibalize itself. And, really, she doesn't have a lot of options. This MAY be her best bet.

And none of this accounts for the other hidden immunity idol, which Kim has but (we think) only Chelsea knows about. If Alicia and Christina think one of the other women has this idol (which is likely), then allying with Troy/Leif/Greg won't help because the idol bounce will eliminate one of them anyway.

Edited by bucconeer, Apr 18, 2012 @ 6:50 AM.


#114

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Posted Apr 18, 2012 @ 9:03 AM

Yes, I agree with all that, bucconeer. I guess I just don't think joining up with the guys makes Alicia or Christina's chances of winning any better than they are with the women. And since they have more/better connections with the women anyway, I can see why they might not even consider switching.

Edited by peachmangosteen, Apr 18, 2012 @ 9:03 AM.


#115

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Posted Apr 19, 2012 @ 5:17 AM

Alicia mistakenly thinks she's in a final four alliance and believes she has a shot at immunity to make it to final 3 if it's against her alliance mates.


I agree, this is likely how she sees it. But if she thought a level higher (and I know it's a stretch to expect that out of her), while being realistic about her own lack of likeability (also a stretch), she'd realize that for her to win the million dollars, she has to be up against two other players who are also not liked and/or respected: two goats even goatier than she is. There may not in fact have been two such players still playing at the time this tribal council went down, but if there were, they would have been found among Leif, Tarzan, and Christina. Unless two of those three are at F3 with her, she has zero chance of getting enough votes to win. Does anyone disagree with that?

Christina may be hoping that she can be a swing vote when the alliance has to cannibalize itself. And, really, she doesn't have a lot of options. This MAY be her best bet.


That's great, if you're playing for third place. But if she wanted to play for the top prize, her calculus had to be the same as Alicia's: "I'm not well liked or respected, so I need to make sure that if I get to F3, the two others come from the group Tarzan/Alicia/Leif, who are also not well liked or respected".

#116

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Posted Apr 19, 2012 @ 11:53 AM

In the previews for next week's episode it shows Kat crying and some of the women upset and Troy trying to take advantage of that. I wonder if they have one of those challenges where if you complete a task correctly you take out one of the other players. This usually establishes a pecking order within the tribe and may create some tension. However, based on Troy's poor social skills I doubt he will be able to break up the women's alliance.

In another thread I read that K/C/S told Trazan he is part of their final four alliance. Maybe Trazan lets everyone know this??? I'm sure if K/C/S told Trazan that, they have to just be stringing him along.

Edited by cynnie, Apr 19, 2012 @ 11:54 AM.


#117

kikaha

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Posted Apr 19, 2012 @ 1:22 PM

In another thread I read that K/C/S told Trazan he is part of their final four alliance.

Then he's even more the fool, because the women split their vote between Leif and him, just in case Leif had an immunity idol. They showed real clearly where he in reality stands with them.

This would, though, explain his otherwise bizarre votes at tribal council.

#118

FrogsRule

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Posted Apr 20, 2012 @ 2:26 AM

In one of the extra footage clips (link posted in episode thread), Greg said he knows he's in the **bottom 4** of the eight-person alliance (he calls it a coalition), and that Christina doesn't realize that she is as well.

He knew that it would be either Leif or him going home that night. I don't think he has any illusions of grandeur at this point. He's playing the same game as Christina.

He also specifically called it an eight-person alliance and said that he had really tried to win the IC for the team so Troy wouldn't get it.

So I think we've got Christina and Greg playing the same game, with Greg the only one who's got an accurate view of the big picture. Everyone else minus Troy seems to think they are F3.

#119

peachmangosteen

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Posted Apr 20, 2012 @ 8:43 AM

I think there's and extra vid that suggests Christina knows that, too. She believes the women want to be F6 (which is fairly obviously true) and that then she'll have to fight for immunity. She's right about that. Now, whether or not one believes that's a good strategy to go with, it still suggests to me Christina is fairly aware of how it'll shake out. Granted, she might be thinking there aren't any sub-alliances, but still. She sees the women going to F6 and then her having to fight to win immunity to stay and that is what the other women want to see happen as well.

Edited by peachmangosteen, Apr 20, 2012 @ 8:43 AM.


#120

kikaha

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Posted Apr 20, 2012 @ 10:28 AM

Frogsrule, if Tarzan knows he's at the bottom, why did he not join with Troy this last episode? If the women stick together, who does he think goes home next? He surely doesn't expect to go on an endless immunity run.

I guess Christina thinks she will have to make an immunity run, whoever she aligns with, and her chances are better against the women than Troy.

Seems like each episode lately, the previews try to make it appear that Kim is in trouble. Each time it turns out she is in total control. I would think her biggest concern now is to keep the others from banding together against her. Can't imagine that any of them think they will beat her if she makes the final three.