29 replies to this topic

[BabyVegas]

This is the thread for all your questions and comments about all those late night shows.

With NBC's newest Jay Leno Show/Tonight Show debacle going down, I'm curious how this will affect other networks' late night programming. I mean, I'm sure CBS stands to gain a ton from this, but what about shows that aren't even network shows. Like, I would imagine that there is some crossover between the Colbert Report and Conan. Might Colbert see a boost in his ratings? Should Conan move to another network? Can Conan move to another network?

[arc]

Conan has a new contract though, so he'd have to give up a lot of guaranteed money to go to a new network.

[Kel Varnsen]

Conan has a new contract though, so he'd have to give up a lot of guaranteed money to go to a new network.

I am curious how Conan's contract covers if they take the tonight show away from him or if they move him to a different time slot. I have heard reports that NBC might have to buy out his contract (since I think the contract is for him to be the host of the Tonight Show) and that he might even be allowed to leave with a bunch of NBC's money.

[MissMoneyBags]

I'm mostly curious about how this does or doesn't reflect the changing landscape of television in general. It feels to me like Carson's Tonight Show was a centralized television institution. But he established himself before the explosion of cable, premium cable, and the Internet. Nowadays, viewers have a lot more options and splinter accordingly. Carson was one of a kind on his own merits, but I also think today's time and place might not allow for another TV host to gain his kind of stature. Even Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, who in my personal experience inspire the most frequent "OMG did you see that last night?!" reactions, are disliked by a lot of people on political grounds.

I'm also curious to see how the PR shakes out for both Leno and Conan. While a lot of people haven't liked Conan, there are also people like my mom who are still mad about how Leno got the Tonight Show the first time around. She's not familiar with Conan at all, but as a onetime Letterman devotee was more than happy to launch into a 17-year-old rant about what a backstabbing jerk Leno is. Then again, Leno overcame bad PR the first time, so I'm certain he can do it again.

[BabyVegas]

From the Jay Leno Show thread:

Its obvious to me that this new arrangement is unstable (Jay at 11:35, Conan at 12:05). Jay will hate having only 30 minutes, Conan will hate being bumped to after midnight, he'll lose even more of his audience because its one thing to stay up on a work night to watch a show at 11:30 or so and another thing to wait up till after midnight. Both men and their crews will be angry. NBC needed to choose one or the other, not try to hang on to both of them. NBC seems to be trying to create a textbook situation in how to not handle a business problem. I would expect all this to blow up in the network's face by the beginning of summer.

Totally. This is absolutely a case of NBC trying to please everybody and they're going to end up pleasing nobody.

As far as Leno goes, I wasn't even around for the original Tonight Show handoff, but from what I've read, I definitely feel like Letterman got at least somewhat screwed. And I get the impression that Jay Leno is one of those guys that wants everybody to like him and absolutely hates to visibly get his hands dirty when it comes to office politics, but he is always running some sort of game. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't give a shit who got hurt in his quest to satisfy his ego. And I recognize that not knowing him personally that's a big ol' leap in logic, but IMO, it fits.

I think Jay Leno could overcome bad publicity that first time because hey, if NBC wanted to give him The Tonight Show for whatever even though Johnny Carson wanted it to go to Dave Letterman, he had plausible deniability that he wasn't the root cause. This time, I don't think that there's any question that Leno is throwing a temper tantrum and NBC is doing everything they can to satisfy him.

[Kel Varnsen]

Totally. This is absolutely a case of NBC trying to please everybody and they're going to end up pleasing nobody.

I was always surprised they didn't give Leno some Barbara Walters type special spot rather than the 10pm "experiment". I mean they could give him one 2 hour show each sweeps period, fill it with only the most A-list stars and just have him spend the time tossing the easy questions at them and doing his bits in between the interviews. It would have kept him on TV and happy, and and would have been a way bigger deal, ratings wise than the nightly show.

[arc]

It would have kept him on TV and happy,

I'm not so sure a famous workaholic would have been happy with 3-ish appearances on TV every year.

[Kel Varnsen]

I don't know it would be more prestigious than the crappy nightly show. Plus it could let him do stand-up the rest of the year.

One other thing I heard on the radio this morning is that Conan's contract is for $80 million dollars over 4 years and that is guaranteed. So if NBC takes the tonight show away from him they could be out a lot of money.

[arc]

I wonder if there's a floor on that or if Fox really could pay him $1/year for the first four years and let NBC pick up the rest.

[Kel Varnsen]

I wonder if there's a floor on that or if Fox really could pay him $1/year for the first four years and let NBC pick up the rest.

Conan was interviewed for the Simpsons 20th Anniversary Special. He jokingly said that if someone offered him a job where he was paid $1/year and put him up in some nice place in Spain and gave him a bunch of cheap Spanish wine, and all he would have to do is write funny things for Mr. Burns to say he would take it. Maybe its possible that he can make that joke a reality.

[arc]

BTW, pulling in from the Leno thread:

I can sort of see the argument for NBC giving up 10 pm to the affiliates, put Leno at 10:35, and keep the Tonight Show and Conan at its current timeslot but it's an incredibly high risk plan, even more than putting Leno at 10 in the first place. 10 pm can make a lot more money than 11, and as discussed elsewhere, once NBC gives it up, there's no getting it back. There's no way they pull the trigger without the approval of Comcast. I just don't see NBC doubling down during a merger.

[MissMoneyBags]

Maybe what was so stupid about the Jay Leno 10 p.m. experiment was doing it at more or less the same time that Conan took over the Tonight Show. Seems like it would have been smarter to either test out a new Tonight Show host or test out a new format at 10 p.m., but not both at the same time. That way, if and when one failed, it wouldn't have the disastrous domino effect we've just witnessed.

I actually don't fault NBC for taking risks, but this was just reckless.

I think Jay Leno could overcome bad publicity that first time because hey, if NBC wanted to give him The Tonight Show for whatever even though Johnny Carson wanted it to go to Dave Letterman, he had plausible deniability that he wasn't the root cause. This time, I don't think that there's any question that Leno is throwing a temper tantrum and NBC is doing everything they can to satisfy him.

Yeah, I think there was always a little bit of a shadow hanging over Leno from the original Tonight Show handover. But in the intervening years, I think he built up enough of a harmless, inoffensive persona that a lot of that perception went away, especially in comparison to Letterman's sharper persona. I think the public perception of Conan will potentially be interesting. He's popularly put on the Letterman side of the equation for being "edgy," but I actually think he's far less acidic than Letterman and has more of the Irish schoolboy thing going on (not saying this as a point against either one of them, just that I see a difference).

[Bussy]

I actually don't fault NBC for taking risks, but this was just reckless.

Exactly. It's like they couldn't see past the end of a half hour. If no one's watching Leno at 10, then no one will be watching the local news at 11 and then fewer people will be watching Conan at 11:30. I know that I have never watched a late night show except for the fact that I was watching something at 10, and somehow never got around to changing the channel (on the computer or something) and lo and behold, it's 11:45. I still enjoy it, but it isn't something I ever plan to do. So the Leno experiment simply set Conan up to fail in a domino effect.

And the Leno at 11:30, Conan at 12 is so incredibly stupid that I have to think that NBC proposed such a thing in order to create a firestorm. These shows can't be only half an hour, between a monologue, a little bit of something silly, and a couple of celebrity guests. Leno's half-hour show wouldn't work; it would be rushed and/or sparse given the long history of a more fulfilling format.

I'm wondering why we haven't heard much about ABC in all this? Why is it only Fox that seems to want Conan?

[pigsfeet1]

ABC said at their part of the Winter Press Tour that they`re not interested in Conan. Fox though, different story, they say they`re essentially waiting to see how things shake out with Conan & NBC before they do anything, if they choose to.

[Kel Varnsen]

Fox though, different story, they say they`re essentially waiting to see how things shake out with Conan & NBC before they do anything, if they choose to.

If Conan were to go to Fox it could really shake things up. Since fox doesn't do 10pm network programming I think most if not all of the affiliates run local news at 10. That could mean a potential Fox/Conan talk show could start at 11pm. Not only would that steal a bunch of viewers from Leno and Dave who want something funny before bed, but don't want to stay up until 11:35. Also depending on the guests the show could land it could also steal a bunch of viewers who watch the news at 11, since those people by the time the news is over Conan would probably be welcoming his first guest, which could grab a bunch of people who don't want to sit through a monolog to see some celebrity interviews.

[MissMoneyBags]

I'm wondering why we haven't heard much about ABC in all this? Why is it only Fox that seems to want Conan?

I'm guessing it's a combination of Nightline doing all right (well enough that they probably don't want to take a risk in messing with it), and they probably don't want to pull an NBC on Jimmy Kimmel.

ETA: And speaking of Jimmy Kimmel, he really stuck it to Leno last night. I've found it kind of breathtaking how sharply other hosts like Kimmel, Craig Ferguson and Stephen Colbert have all turned on NBC/Leno (to say nothing of Letterman going nuclear).

Edited by MissMoneyBags, Jan 13, 2010 @ 9:54 AM.

[RainOnATinRoof]

I haven't been watching the late night shows, but I saw what Ferguson said and I watched Conan the other night before he made his decision. You could tell he wasn't joking when he cracked wise about the crap NBC was pulling.

What did Colbert, Kimmel and Letterman say, MissMoneyBags? (Or what nights did they say it, because I can always find it on the websites.)

[MissMoneyBags]

Colbert was the most oblique, sneaking in a reference to "that would be a great idea for a drama on NBC at 10 p.m.," and later having Morgan Freeman read out untrustworthy statements in a trustworthy voice. One of them was "The 11:30 spot is yours, Conan."

Gawker's been rounding up the late night wars. Here's Monday night stuff, before Conan's statement, and last night's far harsher material. In addition to Conan savaging his own network, the best bits are probably David Letterman's Law & Order: Leno Victims Unit ("In late night television, there are two kinds of talk show hosts: Jay Leno and hosts victimized by Jay Leno") and Jimmy Kimmel's merciless parody of Leno throughout his entire show last night (including an intentionally corny "Headlines" segment).

[Shelwood]

I actually don't fault NBC for taking risks, but this was just reckless.

I do fault them. Specifically, I fault Jeff Zucker. He's the one who decided 5 years ago that the only way to keep Conan around would be to offer him the Tonight Show in 2009 without bothering to consider that the relatively young (50s) Leno would likely not retire, but rather threaten to go to a competitor. With Zucker having failed upward into an even more powerful position, and NBC in third place, his idiot replacement, totally incompetent Ben Silverman came up with the Leno at 10pm idea, putting it out as "we meant to do that" instead of "we are covering for our idiocy". Silverman has finally been fired, but Zucker still has his job as head of NBCU entertainment. Let's hope Comcast does some housecleaning, because it hurts my soul that Zucker draws a paycheck for anything but pumping gas.

[TMC1982]

Jeff Zucker makes Dawn Ostroff over at the CW look like Brandon Tartikoff (who actually did make a difference for the better at NBC unlike Mother Zucker).

[MissMoneyBags]

I do fault them. Specifically, I fault Jeff Zucker. He's the one who decided 5 years ago that the only way to keep Conan around would be to offer him the Tonight Show in 2009 without bothering to consider that the relatively young (50s) Leno would likely not retire, but rather threaten to go to a competitor.

Oh yeah. NBC/Zucker's particular decisions were stupid risks. What I mean is that if network executives say "We're going to try this new innovative thing at 10 o'clock" because they genuinely think there's an opportunity other networks aren't capitalizing on, that's reasonable. Even if it fails, I can't fault them for trying. But that's quite different from what Zucker did - the 10 o'clock show was quite obviously an effort to appease Jay Leno and keep him from jumping to another network, and "Oh, we're going to try this bold new programming strategy" was their cover story. Which is still taking a risk, it's just taking a stupid risk that didn't seem based on any kind of facts or analysis.

[arc]

Wow, a Chinese language news take on the story.... Well, it's more like a newpaper's editorial cartoon turned into 2 minutes of CGI. There's Leno, and Conan, and Zucker, and more.

[PhantomChic]

Even without understanding a word, that was hilarious. Especially Conan-Hulk smash!

[arc]

NY Post:

The decision to let O'Brien walk apparently came down to who was cheaper to let go.

Leno has an ironclad, "brilliantly written" agreement that guarantees his production company a staggering $150 million if NBC Universal axes his flailing primetime show, an insider said.

Zucker and Gaspin ought to be fired for making such a patently bad deal and torpedoing the future of late night on NBC. It's actually likely that Jay will do well in the ratings when he re-takes the Tonight Show, but over the next few decades, I just don't see him staying on top.

ETA - one other thing. Is there any solid reason Fox won't take Conan? I know they have to clear space, get enough affiliates on board, and it could be a big financial hit to the affiliates to just give up that time. But here's the thing: late night can be very profitable. The Tonight Show has historically made tons of money for NBC. Letterman, even in second place, has done very well not only for himself but for CBS as well. Wouldn't Fox want a cut of that? Or even a break-even position that eats into the other networks' late night lineups?

Edited by arc, Jan 21, 2010 @ 9:44 PM.

[TMC1982]

I wish that the night that Jay Leno is scheduled to return to The Tonight Show (March 1), Conan O'Brien would show up on David Letterman's show to stick it to Leno and NBC even further.

[Nikki125]

Is there any solid reason Fox won't take Conan? I know they have to clear space, get enough affiliates on board, and it could be a big financial hit to the affiliates to just give up that time.

According to this Business Week article, FOX has already done the numbers on how many affiliates would carry a Conan talk show:

Fox TV executives considering a late-night talk show with Conan O’Brien are confident 60 percent to 70 percent of their local stations would be free to carry it, a person with knowledge of the situation said.

Other stations may have program commitments that keep them from coming on board by September, when O’Brien, 46, is free to start working again, said the person, who wasn’t authorized to talk publicly.

So it does sound like FOX wants to do a show with him, now that the NBC crap is done with.

[arc]

w00t!

[Actionmage]

I'll bump this,in part, due to this question:

I wish that the night that Jay Leno is scheduled to return to The Tonight Show (March 1), Conan O'Brien would show up on David Letterman's show to stick it to Leno and NBC even further.

That was a cool question TMC1982posed, but the Conan on Dave didn't happen until this spring (in 2012; the question was posed in 2010.) Does anyone know the numbers for that appearance versus the Leno numbers that night?


Also, was the bigger winner of the NBC Debacle Carson Daly? His show, third in the late-night shows, was largely left alone; has it seen any growth? Or was it Jimmy Fallon, who like Conan before him, got a nice, kinda cush gig and folks don't think of him in any bad way, re:Conan?

[ParadoxLost]

Or was it Jimmy Fallon, who like Conan before him, got a nice, kinda cush gig and folks don't think of him in any bad way, re:Conan?

Well there has been recent (Dec2012) rumors in the media that Jimmy Fallon is being groomed to take over the Tonight Show in 2014 when Leno's contract is up. I wonder if NBC can pull a trifecta and get a third "Late Shift" book out of this thing.

[Kel Varnsen]

Well there has been recent (Dec2012) rumors in the media that Jimmy Fallon is being groomed to take over the Tonight Show in 2014 when Leno's contract is up. I wonder if NBC can pull a trifecta and get a third "Late Shift" book out of this thing.

I can't see workaholic Leno wanting to retire in 2014 any more than he wanted to retire in 2009. So they will be in the same situation they were with Leno threatening to go somewhere else. Then again I did read that Leno took a pay cut recently and it might be a situation where even with the cut it is too expensive for NBC to keep using him as the host. Then again if the people who watch late night tv, generally older people couldn't get into Conan, I am not sure how they will accept Fallon.

It is also interesting that Leno will be 64 in 2014, and Johnny Carson was the Tonight show host until he was almost 67.