330 replies to this topic

[TWoP Dietrich]

Predictions, results, games, that sort of thing. Have at it!

[samsnee]

Alright, so my guess for likely top 5 this weekend.

1. Quantum of Solace (obviously) - $60 million
2. Madagascar 2 - $45 million
3. Role Models - $10 million
4. HSM3 - $7 million
5. Changeling - $5 million

Although, I can easily see HSM3 taking the third spot and Role Models falling to #4. Never underestimate the power of singing kids, unless it's Newsies.

[samsnee]

Guess I'll talk to myself. Looks like I got the right order, but underestimated QoS while overestimating Madagascar 2. Next week will be interesting with Bolt and Twilight opening for the young crowd. I don't know a thing about the Twilight series, but I don't think it'll be as big as Harry Potter.

[AimingforYoko]

You and Joshua Rich of EW. I kinda had a feeling it would beat Madagascar's opening. Now let's see how it stands up against the screaming fan-girls and Twilight.

[samsnee]

Not a fan of Joshua Rich. I find him to be kind of cocky. Anyway, so it's a tough week to call. I think Bolt will squeeze out the win because all the little kiddies have already seen Madagascar 2. Twilight should do well, and probably attract the same crowd as High School Musical 3.

1. Bolt - $58 million
2. Twilight - $45 million
3. QoS - $25 million
4. Madagascar 2 - $20 million
5. Role Models - $5 million

Edited by samsnee, Nov 19, 2008 @ 8:38 PM.

[AimingforYoko]

Ah, samsnee, as Sun Tzu once wrote, never underestimate the obsession of teenage girls. (OK, maybe not)
Anywho, the top 5:

• Twilight- 70.6m
• Quantam of Solace- 27.4m
• Bolt- 27m
• Madagascar 2- 16m
• Role Models- 7.2m

[thuganomics85]

Hmm... not to surprised about Twilight, but I was surprised over how low Bolt was. It got good reviews from the critics, but I guess most kids already have been entertained by Madagascar 2, so they decided to skip it. I guess Disney will have to see if it has any staying power.

Quantam of Solace had a hefty drop. It will need to do really well over the Thanksgiving holiday, to catch up to Casino Royale, I suspect. On the postivie side, I'm glad Role Models seems to have some staying power.

[samsnee]

Wow, I'm definitely surprised. Not so much about Twilight, but the poor showing of Bolt. I was for sure that the little bastards would upset the vampires, but shows what I know. What's more surprising is that Changeling hung on strong to come in at #6, and HSM3 came in at #7.

[Trini Girl]

Hmm, with The Transporter 3 coming out this week, QoS might take another hit. But I think Twilight will go down considerably by next weekend.

[samsnee]

I think it will depend on if all the young fans liked it or not. The female demographic is basically what gave Titanic its legs weekend after weekend, so we'll see. Not saying Twilight will do Titanic size numbers at all, but if there's nothing else coming out for that audience, they'll watch that again instead.

I'm more curious about Australia. Neither Kidman or Jackman can really open a movie on their own. And the budget for this thing is supposed to huge. So I'm curious if it even breaks $30 million in the opening weekend.

[Gardel]

Now that Australia has been out long enough to gauge how it will do, is it safe to say that - after the amazingly low draw of this movie - Nicole Kidman has become box office poison?

It's hardly fair to blame the film's poor performance on her, but it seems that most of the criticism is aimed at her performance, not to mention that all the projects she worked on recently have also failed commercially.

Edit: for eliminating double post in the same post!

Edited by Gardel, Dec 19, 2008 @ 6:43 PM.

[samsnee]

Yes, Nicole Kidman is no longer a box office draw. I think she had her time after the sun right after she got divorced from Cruise, when she picked smart projects. Now, she looks so botoxed and China-dolled, it's hard to take her seriously.

So the next couple of weeks should be interesting at the BO as we have a lot of high profile films coming out. This week, the big releases include Will Smith's "Seven Pounds", Jim Carrey's "Yes Man", and the animated flick Desperaux. I think Desperaux will bomb. It just doesn't look like a fun kids movie. Will Smith would be a safe bet, but I don't think there has been as much hype for this movie as there was for Pursuit of Happyness, nor is it really known what this movie is about, so it could turn people off. And Carrey hasn't had a live action hit in quite awhile.

I'm going to give the edge to Carrey, just because his seems more generated to appeal to the masses.

1. Yes Man
2. Seven Pounds
3. The Day the Earth Stood Still
4. Four Christmases
5. Desperaux

Next week is the real challenge, as Christmas Day has movies by Adam Sandler, Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise, and Owen Wilson/Jen Aniston.

[Gardel]

I'm going to give the edge to Carrey, just because his seems more generated to appeal to the masses.

1. Yes Man
2. Seven Pounds
3. The Day the Earth Stood Still
4. Four Christmases
5. Desperaux

I agree with this. I will also go further and say I am not quite excited about this weekend's releases and will likely skip it.

Definitely looking forward to see what next weekend will be like though. Think Aniston will win this by a landslide.

Edited by Gardel, Dec 19, 2008 @ 6:46 PM.

[samsnee]

You think? I know the book was popular, but an Adam Sandler's kids movie is going to be tough to beat. I think Benjamin Button will do well on a per-screen average basis, while Valkyrie will be the loser. (I'm not including The Spirit because that movie is bringing a knife to a gun fight.)

[Gardel]

I forgot all about The Spirit, oops.

Scarjo would have to be topless all the time in order to be competitive next weekend.

And yes, I still think that Marley & me will come out the winner this weekend, even if Adam Sandler does have his strong fanbase and the other films look better.

[samsnee]

So looks like I got most it right. Desperaux did a lot better than I thought, though $10.5 is pretty darn low for kids animated movie these days.

1. Yes Man $18.2
2. Seven Pounds $16
3. Desperaux $10.5
4. TDTESS $10.2
5. Four Christmases $7.8

[AimingforYoko]

Numbers are down because of the weather throughout the midwest and northeast. It will be interesting to see whether Seven Pounds or Yes Man have the longer legs.

Edited by AimingforYoko, Dec 21, 2008 @ 2:33 PM.

[CantThinkUpName]

I also thought Desperaux was going to do worse but YM/SP doing less than $20 million was lower than I thought.

[samsnee]

I can see YM having legs, but I think once the word gets out that SP is a suicide movie and doesn't exactly give holiday cheer, it'll be drop fast. It'll prob be Will Smith's first non $100M grosser in awhile.

[thuganomics85]

Defintely not sure about Seven Pounds legs. I just got back from seeing it, and while it could have different reactions in different areas, most of my fellow theatergoers came out with a mixture of "WTF?" and "That was depressing!" reactions. Defintley don't see it bringing the holiday cheer.

Good news is that it's budget was a modest (at least for these times) $55 million, so it will probably ended up turning out alright. But I suspect this will on the lower end of Will Smith's box office chart. Could be a good thing; their have been complaints Will has been coming off cocky in interviews lately, so maybe this will cause him to tone it down a bit.

[bluroses]

Could be a good thing; their have been complaints Will has been coming off cocky in interviews lately, so maybe this will cause him to tone it down a bit.

He's always had an ego, but it never bothered me because he had such a good sense of humor. Lately, though, the sense of humor seems to have taken a backseat. At least from what I've seen in the past few months.

Maybe a good comedy will help him lighten up.

[samsnee]

Yeah, Will Smith definitely has an ego, but he has kept it somewhat in check lately. In fact, I think his son probably has inherited.

So for next week, I think we might have almost an all new top 5, with no holdovers from this week.

#1 Bedtime Stories
#2 Marley & Me
#3 Valkyrie
#4 Yes Man
#5 Benjamin Button (prob best per screen average)

and Spirit will probably be #6 or #7.

[kellykapowski]

Ya -- For some reason I see Bedtime Stories sweeping in and taking it all this coming Thursday. I am especially excited about seeing it and I think it will be a good film because it caters to the entire family. Adults and children will enjoy the movie, so that's why I think it will come in at #1. We will have to wait and see. :)

[CantThinkUpName]

I agree that Bedtime Stories will be number one, though I have no desire to see it. It seems to be the biggest light hearted family fare for this holiday season. I think you're giving Marley and Me too much credit. It seems instantly forgettable, too childish for adults and too adulty for children. (And then we get to hear all about the Friends Box Office Battle: Will Courtney Beat Jennifer?)

#1 Bedtime Stories
#2 Valkyrie
#3 Yes Man
#4 Benjamin Button
#5 Marley and Me
#6 Day The Earth Stood Still
#7 Seven Pounds
#8 Four Christmases
#9 The Spirit
#10 Desperaux

[hanzz]

Really? Maybe I've been hanging around Oscar forums too much lately, but I thought Ben Button would be a good position to take #1. EVERYONE has seen that beautifully haunting trailer (the first one, with the Carnival of Animals Aquarium suite playing in the background), and despite the movie being a standard life drama except for that one teensy little premise, I know quite a few people who are very intrigued.

[samsnee]

(And then we get to hear all about the Friends Box Office Battle: Will Courtney Beat Jennifer?)

I though the story would be will Jenn beat Brad? I think Marley & Me will do because its based on a very successful book.

I think the 2.5 hour running time for Button will hurt it. Conventional wisdom is that the shorter the movie, the more times it can play during the day and thus, make more money.

[Gardel]

Really? Maybe I've been hanging around Oscar forums too much lately, but I thought Ben Button would be a good position to take #1. EVERYONE has seen that beautifully haunting trailer (the first one, with the Carnival of Animals Aquarium suite playing in the background), and despite the movie being a standard life drama except for that one teensy little premise, I know quite a few people who are very intrigued.

I'm intrigued too, but too exhausted to go see it right now. I hate the holidays!

I think Ben Button and Valkyrie will do very poorly, because let's face it, the family types are more likely to go see the comedies and lighthearted dramas this time of the year.

[angelaudie]

Box Office Prophets breaks down the box office for Christmas Day. Marley and Me took the #1 spot with $14.5 million followed closely by The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with $11.8 million. Bedtime Stories came in 3rd with $10.5 million. The Spirit was the big bomb yesterday with $4 million coming in at #7. It will be interesting to read the weekend box office numbers.

Edited by angelaudie, Dec 26, 2008 @ 1:59 PM.

[CantThinkUpName]

Marley and Me took the #1 spot

I did not see that coming.

[samsnee]

I'm surprised too. I knew Marley & Me would do well enough, but I'm surprised by Bedtme Stories.