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Ratings and Scheduling Issues: The Truth Is...We're Obsolete


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#2401

calguy2009

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 3:18 PM

Yeah there's seemingly no overlap between the audience of Kitchen Nightmares and Fringe given the relatively wild swings in audience for Kitchen Nightmares compared to Fringe's stable (but sadly low) ratings. It's seems like one audience turns off their tv at 9:00pm and another turns their's on.
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#2402

DixieGirl

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 3:25 PM

Like everything else related to Nielsen, I expect the concept of "Lead In Audience" is outmoded. Maybe it mattered when people settled in for the evening (sans remote control) for an evening of TV watching, when they watched programs at the time they actually aired.

I'd go out on a limb and speculate that a significant number of network tv viewers are watching their specific shows and not really channel surfing because everything's dvr'd. Excluding the Jersey Shore/Teen Mom contingent, of course!
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#2403

oconnellaboo

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 3:51 PM

Is this a burnoff of The Finder?


Ohhh, yeah, that sounds like a burnoff, for sure.

Like everything else related to Nielsen, I expect the concept of "Lead In Audience" is outmoded. Maybe it mattered when people settled in for the evening (sans remote control) for an evening of TV watching, when they watched programs at the time they actually aired.


Exactly, Dix. Never underestimate the TV viewers' desire not to have to get up and change the channel! With the advent of the remote, the "lead-in" argument started to slowly erode.

I'd go out on a limb and speculate that a significant number of network tv viewers are watching their specific shows and not really channel surfing because everything's dvr'd. Excluding the Jersey Shore/Teen Mom contingent, of course!


Add DVR to the remote-control generation, and you have time-shifting, all-over-the-place viewing habits. I suspect that so many shows now are canceled because networks and production companies don't realize just what their viewership is, because they're examining the numbers using an antiquated system. It's like trying to balance the federal budget using statistics from the Taft administration.
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#2404

Masem

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 4:13 PM

But do Kitchen Nightmares and Fringe really have that much of a fan overlap?


Great, now I'm imaging both Fringe teams working in the opposite kitchens of Hell's Kitchen. "Walter YOU DONKEY!"
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#2405

Ageha

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 5:10 PM

Great, now I'm imaging both Fringe teams working in the opposite kitchens of Hell's Kitchen.


If we get a fifth season I so hope this is episode 19.
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#2406

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 5:16 PM

Hee, Masem...I always wondered whether we Fringe fans ought to do some kind of outreach to the Kitchen Nightmares crowd. "Hey! Do you enjoy all the gross shit Gordon finds in disgusting restaurant walk-ins? Stick around! This one time Walter made an ear omelet!"
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#2407

RainbowMist

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 5:20 PM

I can see where the lead in argument comes from, especially now that I am a student with no DVR and limited options. For example, I watch Parks and Recreation every week and I also watch Up All Night on and off. I often forget to watch Up All Night (which is kind of unfortunate, cos it's really good), but if it was on right after Parks I'd catch it every week- as it stands though, since I can't be bothered with the Office, I usually turn off the tv and don't bother to turn it back on. Of course, the target audiences for those shows are much closer than those for Fringe and Kitchen Nightmares.
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#2408

LoraxGirl

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 6:36 PM

As for The Finder being moved to Friday nights in April, I think they are burning off the season. The show has done really poorly after american idol, so I don't think it has a real shot on Friday night. But stranger things have happened.

If the lead-in concept were still valid, I do think The Finder would be a better lead in than Fringe. But like it has been mentioned before, the lead-in is not as important. Although, I think it is somewhat valid with sitcoms, but to me, a lot of them are interchangeable, so there is not point in changing the channel. But with dramas, I am less likely to commit to a full hour unless I am already invested in it.
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#2409

Money Magnet

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 7:17 PM

So here's what I don't get: Why didn't Fox pair The Finder with Bones? Lordy, what a no-brainer. But I notice that Fox never attempts intelligent pairings of shows (I suppose the closest they got was putting Bones with Fringe)...
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#2410

calguy2009

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 7:37 PM

There wasn't really any spot to pair Bones and The Finder together so they did the next best thing and put it in Bones former timeslot along with an American Idol lead-in.
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#2411

lasher

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 8:00 PM

The Finder will be a worse lead-in for Fringe because its ratings will be lower, possibly significantly so, than Kitchen Nightmares. The Finder was having trouble hitting a 2.0 airing on Thursday after Idol. I wouldn't be surprised if Finder is sub 1.0 by the end of the burn-off.
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#2412

Coco27

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 8:19 PM

So here's what I don't get: Why didn't Fox pair The Finder with Bones?


The Finder was made essentially as a mid-season replacement (13 ep) for Bones on Thursdays, to accomodate Bones's shortened season due to E.Deschanel's pregnancy.

Also, there wasn't any room on the schedule to pair them really. FOX has only 2h of primetime to fill each night and with House on mondays, Glee on tuesdays, AI and XF taking wed/thu, Fringe on fridays, there was no possibility for FOX to pair them without moving one of these shows first.

Last year, they were able to pair Bones with Fringe only because X-Factor didn't exist and American Idol was still airing on Tue/Wed. Remember how they switched AI from Tue/Wed to Wed/Thu in january last year, thus ending all pairing of scripted shows on thurdays? That was the very move that made Fringe lost its spot on thursdays. And eventually saved its life, but that's another story :)

Fox 2011-2012 schedule

Fall 2011
Mon: Terra Nova, House
Tue: Glee, NG, RH
Wed: X-Factor (2h)
Thu: X-Factor, Bones
Fri: KN, Fringe

Winter 2012
Mon: House, Alcatraz
Tue: Glee, NG, RH
Wed: American Idol (2h)
Thu: American Idol, The Finder
Fri: KN, Fringe

Spring 2012
Mon: Bones, Alcatraz/House
Tue: Glee, NG, RH
Wed: American Idol (2h)
Thu: American Idol, Touch
Fri: The Finder, Fringe

Edited by Coco27, Mar 2, 2012 @ 8:26 PM.

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#2413

URFloorMatt

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 9:11 PM

Exactly, Dix. Never underestimate the TV viewers' desire not to have to get up and change the channel! With the advent of the remote, the "lead-in" argument started to slowly erode.

Alright, answer me this: How many 9:00 shows draw a larger audience than their 8:00 lead-in? I honestly have no idea, but it would certainly be a good indicator.

All I can recall is how much everyone was stunned when Fringe moved to Fridays and for the first couple weeks held 100% of its lead-in. That suggests to me that the trend is highly uncommon. And that means if Finder pulls in ratings significantly below Kitchen Nightmares, then Fringe will likely see a corresponding drop as well.

The only saving grace, as MM pointed out, is that the decision on Fringe will probably be made well before this change occurs.

Edited by URFloorMatt, Mar 2, 2012 @ 9:12 PM.

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#2414

DixieGirl

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Posted Mar 2, 2012 @ 9:36 PM

How many 9:00 shows draw a larger audience than their 8:00 lead-in? I honestly have no idea, but it would certainly be a good indicator.


That would be interesting to know. i don't remember the last time i watched something when it was actually being broadcast (except Fringe), so I really don't even know the schedules anymore.
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#2415

anatolealice

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Posted Mar 3, 2012 @ 12:09 AM

I watch a lot of stuff because I'm too lazy to change the channel, remote or no remote, I'd still have to make a decision and chances are I'd have missed the beginning of whatever I switched to. I can see that the lead in is important, though that it's kitchen nightmares is a bit mind boggling. Bones/Fringe makes more sense to me (I started watching Bones because here it was scheduled after a show that I always watched).

Excluding the Jersey Shore/Teen Mom contingent, of course!


Heh, I watch Teen Mom but never, ever, ever Jersey Shore. So I feel bad for the people who have to make these decisions.
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#2416

carsonb

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Posted Mar 3, 2012 @ 12:20 AM

Alright, answer me this: How many 9:00 shows draw a larger audience than their 8:00 lead-in? I honestly have no idea, but it would certainly be a good indicator.


A lot. Simply because more people watch tv at 9:00 than at 8:00. Which is why lead-ins used to be so important. They are still kind of important because you might get viewers to stick around for a show they would normally not watch. But with DVR's that is changing because people can watch whenever they want.

I doubt The Finder switch will change anything for Fringe. Fringe ratings are very consistent. Most shows aren't lead-in reliant after the second season they have already built their core audience.
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#2417

oconnellaboo

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 2:26 PM

From TV By the Numbers:

Fringe topped the percentage adults 18-49 ratings increase from DVR viewing, adding a hefty 82% to its Live+Same Day adults 18-49 ratings.


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#2418

prodigalchicken

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 4:26 PM

82%? Wow. I was not expecting that large of a number. I'll take it :)
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#2419

DixieGirl

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 7:21 PM

And that was on top of a 1.2 live + same day, right? So improved numbers all the way around, yippee!
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#2420

Money Magnet

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 8:42 PM

No, that was on top of a 1.1. This was for "Welcome to Westfield." Which went up to 2.0 with Live+7.
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#2421

hayds

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 9:24 PM

This was for "Welcome to Westfield."



The picture looks to be from A Better Human Being (which aired Feb. 17th- the week they're reporting).

The fact that Ari retweeted the numbers seems to be a good sign...right?
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#2422

Money Magnet

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 9:41 PM

You're right - it was "A Better Human Being." Got my episode numbers confused.
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#2423

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 10:49 PM

Just read this on twitter. Not sure if it means anything for Fringe

TVGuideMagazine ‏ BREAKING: According to insiders, Fox will not pick up Terra Nova. 20th Century Fox TV will shop to other networks


ETA

Terra Nova canceled
http://www.tvline.co...-cancelled-fox/

Edited by Jodhaa, Mar 5, 2012 @ 10:51 PM.

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#2424

prodigalchicken

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 10:55 PM

Wow. Terra Nova did cost a fortune. Now that it is for sure gone, I feel nervous that an announcement for Fringe will be coming any second now.

:::biting nails:::

Edited by prodigalchicken, Mar 5, 2012 @ 10:56 PM.

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#2425

Money Magnet

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Posted Mar 5, 2012 @ 11:00 PM

Wow, kind of shocked about Terra Nova. I felt like with Alcatraz's and Fringe's bad ratings that it had a chance.

Frankly, the shows that Fox was openly meh about at TCA -- House and Terra Nova -- are now 0 for 2. Given that Fringe was also called on the carpet at TCA, I have to say I'm not holding my breath for a miracle, unless Warner Bros really wants to pony up.

Injecting some harsh realism here (love to be wrong)... Fox probably already knows exactly what it will and won't pay for Fringe. Believe me, they're probably not axing Terra Nova to free up money for Fringe. It's all up to Warner Bros now.

Edited by Money Magnet, Mar 5, 2012 @ 11:12 PM.

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#2426

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Posted Mar 6, 2012 @ 12:02 AM

I am not holding my breath either (makes horrific disappointment slightly easier to swallow), but the twitter-verse is all a-twitter (see what I did there?) about the cancellation of Terra Nova being a good thing for Fringe. I just want to know one way or the other.
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#2427

calguy2009

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Posted Mar 6, 2012 @ 1:29 AM

Fox probably already knows exactly what it will and won't pay for Fringe. Believe me, they're probably not axing Terra Nova to free up money for Fringe. It's all up to Warner Bros now.


If Fringe can get a 5th season it will likely come down with a reduced budget as well, and that will take the approval of all the stakeholders including FOX and Bad Robot.
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#2428

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Posted Mar 6, 2012 @ 3:21 AM

K.Reilly´ interview at TCA, Jan 2012:

What are you going to do with Fringe?

REILLY: We’re going to get the Terra Nova, House and Fringe people all in a room and hold hands. No. You know what? Fringe has been a point of pride. I share the passion for the show that the fans have. I love the fact that Fox, after letting down some of the genre fans over the years, put one on. I love the fans, and that they stuck with it and went to Friday night with us. It’s vastly improved our Friday night. We have a Friday night, for the first time in a long, long time. The hesitation in my voice is that it’s an expensive show. We lose a lot of money on the show. At that rating, on that night, it’s almost impossible for us to make money on it. That’s been the case now, over the last season. We’re not in the business of losing money. So, we really do have to sit down with that entity as well, and figure out if there is a number at which it makes sense, or will this be it? I do not want to drop the ball, at the end, and let the fans down. Please don’t start the letter-writing campaign right now. I can’t take it. I hope we get some credit with the fans, for seeing through a great show that they’ve enjoyed. I’m not quietly doing the soft cancel here. I’m just telling you where it stands. We haven’t even sat down with the producers or the studio. I know they want to keep it going. So, that’s another decision we’ll have to make.

And now TN and House are history. Lets hope they do everything possible for Fringe to survive.

Edited by Isidore, Mar 6, 2012 @ 3:23 AM.

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#2429

Money Magnet

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Posted Mar 6, 2012 @ 9:20 AM

We're down to the brass tacks here, Fox is obviously settling its deals for the next season - we've seen them deal with House, The Finder and now Terra Nova. Fringe's fate should be apparent soon. Fortunately the show's future is very clear... it will either have 8 more episodes or somewhere around 22 more. There's nothing to hope for beyond that, at least where a TV show on Fox is concerned.

And there is also a sense, plotwise, that things are advancing (the revelation about the Observers, for example). There aren't too many more mysteries left to deal with. There could be many more stories to tell, or at least another half season's worth of story.

So what do you think? If Fox says no to a fifth season, what will your response be? Will you go full batshit "save this show" or will you just be sad and accepting? (or even glad?)

My feeling is, I don't think Fringe HAS to have a fifth season to wrap up nicely; but I would LIKE one, because a fifth-season coda would probably be pretty memorable. I feel like it would be the graceful thing for Fox to do. This show is different. It's their best genre show since the X-Files and I think they know it. It deserves the symmetry of a coda. I can't say I would be enraged if Fox didn't give it a fifth season (not like I would have felt last season if it were cancelled after 3). But if I felt there was any chance to get a shortened fifth season, I would join a well thought-out campaign. So, I don't know how I will react to whatever news is coming.

It's very clear that because of DVDs and Netflix and such, people discover shows long after they've been cancelled. In some ways, this will just continue as usual... people will keep watching Fringe and catching up with it as if it's still on. So, my ultimate hope is that the core fandom stays passionate and engaged (as much as it can with no new episodes) because you never know. On Fringe, no one and nothing ever really stays dead.
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#2430

Ageha

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Posted Mar 6, 2012 @ 9:43 AM

Honestly, my gut instinct would be to go into a "save our show!" mode, BUT, if I knew that we were going to get some sort of closure, that we wouldn't be left hanging, I'd be extremely sad, but at least mostly content. I'm with you in that having a short 5th season as a coda would be wonderful, but if they told me I was getting a wrap-up at the end of this season, it'd likely keep me from any letter writing campaign (or whatever else it is people do). Of course, that's what my brain is saying, but if you told me right now, in this moment, that it was cancelled but would have a proper ending, I'd probably still cry like a baby.
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