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Speculation Without Spoilers: Who Will Win ... Er, Lose?


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#481

JLVerde

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Posted Apr 13, 2012 @ 2:07 PM

Wow, I don't even remember Lauren and Gail. Well, Gail a wee bit (was she one of the bawl babies who stood around a lot and got Bob's dander all up?).

Lauren really looks trim and happy.

The finale might be fun to watch. There will be a whole lot of "who was s/he again?".

#482

MittenGirl

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Posted Apr 13, 2012 @ 4:08 PM

The only reason I vaguely remember Gail is that we didn't learn she had polio as a child until after she had been eliminated. Which seemed odd considering how much we had heard about Hannah's (or Olivia's) "broken back in a car accident" in their season. (At least I think it was one of the sisters.)

#483

callmebetty

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Posted Apr 13, 2012 @ 5:53 PM

Was Lauren one of Conda's early victims as well? I vaguely remember her, but I do remember Gail and yes she was one that was getting on Bob's nerves because she would cry all the time.

#484

bendercat

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Posted Apr 14, 2012 @ 10:20 AM

Was Lauren one of Conda's early victims as well?


If I recall correctly, Conda told Lauren at the elimination (possibly through fake tears) that she can do it on her own and for some reason everyone seemed to agree with Conda. Lauren had no idea since she was doing fine and there wasn't a yellow line. She also blended into the background because she didn't complain and did what she was told. (Her mother complained, but that's another story.) Conda probably knew early on that Lauren was a threat.

#485

katje

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Posted Apr 25, 2012 @ 7:24 AM

Here is the leaderboard, from the Wikipedia site:

Contestant/Age/ Height/ Start BMI/ Start weight/ Recent BMI/ Recent weight/ Lbs/ Percent
Kim/ 38/ 5' 8"/ 38.3/ 252/ 22.4/ 147/ 105/ -41.7%
Jeremy/ 22/ 5' 8"/ 59.1/ 389/ 36.3/ 239/ 150/ -38.6%
Conda/ 24/ 5' 5"/ 48.9/ 294/ 32.4/ 195/ 99/ -33.7%

Some notes: To reach 50% lost*, Kim would need to lose 21 pounds (for a finale weight of 126; BMI 19.2). Jeremy would need to lose 44.5 pounds (194.5 lbs; BMI 29.5), and Conda would need to lose 48 pounds (147 lbs; BMI 24.5).

Edit: I had to leave the house before finishing my notes, so here are some more. I'm not sure how much time the contestants had between going home and next week's finale, but if it's a six-week span, that means Kim would need to average 3.5 pounds per week, Jeremy would need to average 7.4, and Conda 8. I guess the big question for Kim will be whether she wants to pull out all the stops and shoot for 50-ish percent loss or whether she'll decide she's already healthy and fit at or around her last-night weight/condition. If she does decide to pull out all the stops and shoot for losing another 21 pounds, I think it's doable for her (especially since that would take her to roughly the weight she was during her wrestling days, according to what she has said earlier in the season). Jeremy and Conda could average 7.4 and 8 respectively, but I really hope they don't.

*I know there have been seasons where no one has lost 50% by finale, but it's a good benchmark for speculation.

Edited by katje, Apr 25, 2012 @ 8:06 AM.


#486

flingle

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Posted Apr 25, 2012 @ 2:55 PM

Because I'm a math geek and desperately trying to avoid work, I went through and looked at matchups between Kim, Conda and Jeremy for each of the 15 weeks. First place is given to the one of the three who loses the highest percentage of weight on a particular week, third place to the one who loses the least of the three. So, the total number of places over the 15 weeks are:

Firsts Seconds Thirds
Kim 8 3 4
Conda 1 7 7
Jeremy 6 5 4

which means that under a Borda count, Kim's score is 34, Conda's score is 24 and Jeremy's score is 32. So this completely useless statistic tells us that Kim has a slight advantage over Jeremy in terms of performance in matchups over the season.

#487

coldheather

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Posted Apr 25, 2012 @ 3:33 PM

Kim would need to average 3.5 pounds per week, Jeremy would need to average 7.4, and Conda 8.


This increases my hope that Kim can pull out a win, but I think she'd have to lose a lot of muscle to do it. Too bad skin removal surgery would hamper her workouts. :-). I wonder what her percent body fat is now? There is a link in the "Where Are They Now?" thread to an interview with Irene where she gave her body fat percentage (9%?) which was ridiculously low for a woman. She and her trainer decided to forgo the win to avoid looking like a crack whore. I think Kim would have to lose that much to win if Jeremy works as hard as he claimed to in his red-line week.

#488

jj17

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Posted Apr 25, 2012 @ 4:21 PM

I went back to check how they did during their 18 days at home. I was hoping for something good to throw behind a Kim win.

Conda lost 14, Jeremy lost 20 and Kim lost 7.

Kim really struggled at home the first time. Who's to say she won't this time? Especially as she has gotten to a "normal" BMI/weight. This is my fear. Everyday life will get in her way and she'll see little weight loss.

#489

fivestone

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Posted Apr 25, 2012 @ 7:57 PM

I went back to check how they did during their 18 days at home. I was hoping for something good to throw behind a Kim win.

Conda lost 14, Jeremy lost 20 and Kim lost 7.

Kim really struggled at home the first time. Who's to say she won't this time? Especially as she has gotten to a "normal" BMI/weight. This is my fear. Everyday life will get in her way and she'll see little weight loss.


But Conda and Jeremy had so much more to lose than her. Kim only needs to lose about 3.5 pounds a week to hit her 50%. Losing the 7 pounds in 18 days isn't that far off from that goal, and I'm sure she's going to work out even harder than she did the last time she was at home.

#490

katje

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Posted Apr 25, 2012 @ 8:11 PM

Conda lost 14, Jeremy lost 20 and Kim lost 7.

That is worrisome, jj17. On the one hand, that's twice as much as she needs to average per week to get to 50% loss, but on the other, Conda and Jeremy also don't need to pull the same numbers they did that week. [Oops, I realize that I'd overlooked the "18 weeks" detail.] Well, I hope Kim finds her mojo and that the Britt sibs don't.

Looking at the eliminated players, I see Emily and Cassandra have the highest percentages. Here are some stats on them: Cassandra as of last night's episode had lost 33.89% and Emily 33.71%. Cassandra began at 239 pounds and weighed 158 last night. To get to 50%, she'd need to lose another 39 pounds, which would put her at 119 pounds. She's 5'7", and this would take her down almost to the very bottom of the "healthy" range of BMI, 18.6, so this would be tough for her to achieve. Emily started at 264 and weighed in at 175 in last night's episode. She'd need to get down to 132 to get to 50% lost (43 pounds). She's 5'5", and this would give her a BMI of 22. If they've got six weeks, that's just slightly over seven pounds/week. I think Emily's definitely a contender.

Mike has done well, but he would need to go from 244 to 179 to get to 50% by finale time. That's 65 pounds (almost 11 lbs/week if they've got six weeks).

Edited by katje, Apr 25, 2012 @ 8:19 PM.


#491

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Posted Apr 26, 2012 @ 10:30 AM

There was a blog posted in the last episode thread where Alison says this past episode was filmed two months ago. Just to give the mathematicians a time frame between then and the finale.

#492

katje

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Posted Apr 26, 2012 @ 1:02 PM

Stryker, I was just about to comment on that. I guess that means somewhere between nine and ten weeks between this past Tuesday's episode and next week's finale. Dividing by nine, to hit 50%, Kim would only need to average 2 and 1/3 pounds/week; Jeremy would need 4.94/week, and Conda would need to lose 5 and 1/3 pounds/week.

#493

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Posted Apr 26, 2012 @ 6:47 PM

That is totally do-able for Jeremy. Dammit.

#494

katje

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Posted Apr 26, 2012 @ 8:01 PM

That is totally do-able for Jeremy. Dammit.

Grrr, I know. And the lowest that Kim can go without becoming underweight is 122 pounds, 25 below where she was in this week's episode. That's just 2.7/week.

#495

TexanGal

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Posted Apr 27, 2012 @ 12:22 PM

If she does decide to pull out all the stops and shoot for losing another 21 pounds, I think it's doable for her (especially since that would take her to roughly the weight she was during her wrestling days, according to what she has said earlier in the season).


What?? Uh, really? It seems, as a wrestler, she would have needed a significant (better than average) amount of muscle, and muscle weighs a lot. I'm 5'7" with practically no muscle, and I weigh 120. I can't see Kim, at only one inch taller than me, coming anywhere near my weight while still maintaining the muscle she's gained back throughout the season. I figure she'd have to cut the protein and let her body eat itself.

#496

katje

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Posted Apr 27, 2012 @ 12:36 PM

What?? Uh, really? It seems, as a wrestler, she would have needed a significant (better than average) amount of muscle, and muscle weighs a lot. I'm 5'7" with practically no muscle, and I weigh 120. I can't see Kim, at only one inch taller than me, coming anywhere near my weight while still maintaining the muscle she's gained back throughout the season. I figure she'd have to cut the protein and let her body eat itself.

That was what she'd said at some point during the season while reviewing old photos and having one of those patented trainer/trainee heart-to-hearts. I'm not commenting on whether it would be a good idea to go that low--only that it would be within the realm of possibility based on what she's said. FWIW, I'm your height and when I was 15, I was 118 pounds and muscular (but now that I'm almost 45, I can't see going that low again!).

#497

fivestone

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Posted Apr 27, 2012 @ 2:22 PM

If she does decide to pull out all the stops and shoot for losing another 21 pounds, I think it's doable for her (especially since that would take her to roughly the weight she was during her wrestling days, according to what she has said earlier in the season).


What?? Uh, really? It seems, as a wrestler, she would have needed a significant (better than average) amount of muscle, and muscle weighs a lot. I'm 5'7" with practically no muscle, and I weigh 120. I can't see Kim, at only one inch taller than me, coming anywhere near my weight while still maintaining the muscle she's gained back throughout the season. I figure she'd have to cut the protein and let her body eat itself.


I could have sworn that she said she was 140 during her wrestling days, which seems like it would make more sense (then again, my hearing ain't what it used to be.) I'm almost 5'6, 110 pounds, and though still muscular, definitely lost a fair amount of muscle as my weight dropped (but on the flip side, I put on muscle fairly easily, always have.) Anyway, I could see Kim losing a good bit of muscle if she's strving for 122 or so.

So if Kim's willing to just go for straight weight loss and worry about muscle later, I couldn't blame her - it'd be a short term thing for a few weeks to try and win $250,000, and then she can sort out all the muscle and weight stuff with her trainer later on. If she's got a mesomorphic body type where it's easy to put on muscle, then she's definitely gonna be good to go after the finale.

Edited by fivestone, Apr 27, 2012 @ 2:24 PM.


#498

TexanGal

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Posted Apr 27, 2012 @ 4:31 PM

140 sounds more realistic. That's actually my goal weight, but I've had several failed attempts at putting on that much muscle; I've maxed out at 130 on my best try. katje, a lot of difference between an adolescent and a grown woman. When I was 14 I had a lot of muscle and weighed 125. There's no way I could have that much muscle and weigh only 125 these days. Can Kim drop down to 125? Oh yes, definitely. I personally wouldn't want her to because she'd logically HAVE to give up a lot of the beautiful muscle she's worked hard for. And it SUCKS losing that muscle; I know. I went through it when I turned vegetarian as a teenager without paying attention to diet/protein.

#499

katje

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Posted Apr 27, 2012 @ 8:35 PM

Oh, I'm not suggesting it would be a great idea for Kim to go that low. Just speculating as to whether she can/will. On the one hand, it would be a shame for her to lose muscle to max out her weight loss. But on the other, I really don't want to see a "Britt" win.

#500

eatingchicken

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Posted Apr 28, 2012 @ 10:21 PM

Kim's height on the BL wiki seems to have changed from 5'8 to 5'7. Though would still be very hard for her to pull the 50% weight loss.

#501

katje

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Posted Apr 29, 2012 @ 6:43 AM

That shifts the bottom of the "healthy" BMI range to 118 for Kim, which would represent a loss of 53%. (Again, not suggesting this would be advisable or healthy--just crunching the numbers.)

#502

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Posted Apr 29, 2012 @ 10:28 AM

The thing is, the odds may be with Conda or Jeremy as far as amount of weight they need to lose to win, especially when compared to Kim.

But (aside from the fact that my mind goes into absolute denial when it tries to imagine a Britt win), Kim has determination. Conda and Jeremy have gotten as far as they have due to manipulation. Do either of them have the discipline to lose 5 to 7 lbs a week at home? Kim -- except for her personality -- reminds me of Tara: a competitive machine with her eye on the prize. The Britts have had the advantage of being on the ranch for the entire season, and while they've each lost a lot of weight, they still look like Teletubbies due to the lack of muscle. This tells me that they haven't been doing as much as they could have, even under the most advantageous conditions on the freaking planet for weight loss and toning.

So do I think they'll turn into lean mean weight losing machines at home? I don't see it. I don't perceive "hard work" is in their bag of tricks.

The idea of Conda, the most reviled contestant I can remember (I didn't watch the Vicki and Heba season), being the Biggest Loser is more than I can even bear to think about. Brain bleach, please!

#503

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Posted Apr 29, 2012 @ 12:54 PM

So do I think they'll turn into lean mean weight losing machines at home? I don't see it. I don't perceive "hard work" is in their bag of tricks.

But can't you see Conda locking Jeremy in a room, strapped to a treadmill, and feeding him once a day?
The food would come after, and only if, he signs an agreement to split any winnings.

#504

flingle

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Posted Apr 29, 2012 @ 3:08 PM

But can't you see Conda locking Jeremy in a room, strapped to a treadmill, and feeding him once a day?


Or better yet, the Colbert Report did a piece about a clinic that sticks a feeding tube down your nose so you can lose 20 pounds in 10 days (marketed to brides-to-be). Maybe Conda will force Jeremy to do something like that and withhold his "slurry" if he doesn't exercise enough.

#505

livserge

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Posted May 1, 2012 @ 11:48 AM

But can't you see Conda locking Jeremy in a room, strapped to a treadmill, and feeding him once a day?
The food would come after, and only if, he signs an agreement to split any winnings.


Yeah, but he would just feign ignorance of the contract later on! We know he can't read!