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Speculation Without Spoilers: Who Will Win ... Er, Lose?


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#1

TWoP Mars

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Posted Nov 12, 2007 @ 11:35 PM

Post your speculation here.

Edited by TWoP Mars, Nov 12, 2007 @ 11:37 PM.


#2

takinitoff

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Posted Nov 14, 2007 @ 10:38 AM

I still can't really tell yet...but I think it will definitely be a member of the black team. Maybe even the remaining twin (I forgot his name). He's being pretty quiet...but it's the silent ones who are usually the ones you have to watch!

#3

Torop

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Posted Nov 14, 2007 @ 11:28 AM

Top 6 are Bill, Neil, Kae, Isabeau, Hollie and Julie (just because the black team has the numbers and I don't see Neil ever falling below the yellow line).

I think Bill will win. Bill only has to lose about 65 more pounds to make it to 50 %. Neil still has over 100 pounds.

Kae is the wildcard in this. She only has to lose about 47 more pounds to get to 50%. However, that is going to be harder for her to lost as the number gets lower. Though, considering she is so short, 112 pounds is not unattainable.

Isabeau has only lost around 60 pounds, which means she would need another 90 pounds to make it to 50 %.

You can take Hollie and Julie out of the competition. They will be the bottom two, I feel.

Edited by Torop, Nov 14, 2007 @ 11:28 AM.


#4

DanaMB

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Posted Nov 14, 2007 @ 9:40 PM

I don't know, based on Isabeau's myspace blogs I'm getting the feeling she's in the final 4. I know she can't say if she is and it could be possible she's just nervous about a final weigh-in on live TV, but the stress she describes sounds like something someone up for the grand prize would feel.

#5

JacG

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Posted Nov 20, 2007 @ 11:20 PM

I think the top 4 will be Neil, Hollie, Phil, & maybe Julie

#6

DanaMB

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Posted Nov 21, 2007 @ 1:22 PM

I'm sticking to my theory that Isabeau is in the final four. Again, this is based on her blog. She has decided not to write any more blogs until after the finale. Also, she is performing Dec. 2 and has stated no cameras are allowed because it will ruin the surprise for America. And she keeps mentioning stress and how busy she is right now. It sounds to me like someone who is working to lose as much weight as possible.

I could be wrong, I suppose. I do have to say I'm shocked that TPTB at NBC haven't monitored her blog more closely.

#7

takinitoff

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Posted Nov 21, 2007 @ 1:59 PM

I could be wrong, I suppose. I do have to say I'm shocked that TPTB at NBC haven't monitored her blog more closely


Especially given the fact they're watching Kai's (Season 3) every move even after the finale of her season. I guess as long as they feel Isabeau's not bursting their bubble...they'll let her talk. That...or maybe they did send her a message and so she just stopped without telling everyone NBC and 3-ball is making her shut up. JMO

#8

katje

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Posted Nov 21, 2007 @ 3:25 PM

This is speculation regarding the trainers and next season (I'm not sure if it should go into a different thread). I couldn't help noticing that the promos for Season Five featured Bob and Jillian, but no Kim. Not that I'm surprised.

#9

kittkat

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Posted Nov 21, 2007 @ 4:51 PM

I'm a little bit disappointed that there's no Kim. I wouldn't consider myself a fan of Kim, necessarily, and I do understand the widespread dislike, but I enjoy the contrast between her style of training, and Bob and Jillian's styles of training.

#10

slient knight

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Posted Nov 24, 2007 @ 6:47 AM

I have a feeling that Bill will win and that Jim will win out of the contestants who were sent home from the ranch. I think that the twins will support and push each other, and at the same time also want to outdo each other with getting fit! :D

#11

moonglo33

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Posted Nov 24, 2007 @ 10:30 AM


Out of who's left I think Neil will win. I'd been hoping for a woman to finally win this season and it was looking good for it until they eliminated Amy the annoying. Didn't they realize that the only way a woman can win is if there are no men in the final 4?
The men lose faster and have more to lose so there's no way a woman could beat them on an even field.

#12

ketchuplover

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Posted Nov 26, 2007 @ 7:50 PM

On another message board someone said Bill has lost 32% so far. Surprised me too :)

#13

cosmic1

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Posted Nov 28, 2007 @ 12:50 PM

I think if Neil is in the final 4, he will win. Bill looks like he is getting pretty close to his ideal weight.

#14

Jacob's Hair Dye

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Posted Nov 28, 2007 @ 12:55 PM

I think if Neil is in the final 4, he will win. Bill looks like he is getting pretty close to his ideal weight.

I thought the F4 winner at the end of the show was determined by percentage over the entire time they were on the show, not just the final 3 months or however long. If Bill is or near at his goal weight when he leaves the campus and can just maintain, he's got a pretty good shot at winning the whole shebang.

Edited by Jacob's Hair Dye, Nov 28, 2007 @ 12:55 PM.


#15

YourMom

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Posted Nov 28, 2007 @ 3:34 PM

I thought the F4 winner at the end of the show was determined by percentage over the entire time they were on the show, not just the final 3 months or however long. If Bill is or near at his goal weight when he leaves the campus and can just maintain, he's got a pretty good shot at winning the whole shebang.

That's my understanding too.

Unfortunately, things are looking pretty good for the unholy trinity (Hollie, Isabeau, Julie). The only way one of those three is going is if two of them fall below the line in the same weigh-in and they are forced to vote one out. Isabeau and Julie seem to have a stronger bond with each other and the rest of the players, so if Hollie is paired with either one of them, she's in trouble. Though if it's Isabeau/Hollie the rest of them still could rise up and vote off Isabeau as the bigger threat. If it's Julie/Hollie, Julie stays both out of loyalty and as the perceived lesser threat. If it's Julie/Isabeau, I think Isabeau goes home as the bigger threat (unless Neil has his way). I can't come up with a scenario that results in Julie getting voted out, so I think she's almost a lock for the F4.

Nicole and Neil are obviously gone if either falls below the line at either of the two coming weigh-ins.

I think Bill is in fairly good standing. I still think the Bitches of Eastwick would stick to their word and off Neil or Nicole instead of him, especially since those two are #1 and #3 in total weight lost so far. However, if Bill lands in the bottom two with one of the three black ladies, he's doomed.

My guess on the final four is: Neil, Bill, Isabeau and Julie. I just can't see Neil or Bill falling below the line at this point. The two of them have consistently put up the best numbers. I think Nicole will fall below the line at one of the next two--probably the next one--and get axed. And I think Hollie will probably find herself in a emotional last elimination against Julie and get dumped. Total guess there.

Of the six remaining, Bill and Neil are going to be very, very hard for any of the girls to catch. Isabeau and Nicole have enough weight to lose that, in theory, it could be done. Julie and Hollie don't really have a chance, I think, even if they make the F4.

#16

Hawkeye720

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Posted Nov 28, 2007 @ 4:45 PM

The NBC website shows the percentage of weight loss for each through last night's weigh-in.

http://www.nbc.com/T...s/current_cast/

For the final 6:

Bill 34%
Neil 29%
Nicole 24%
Isabeau 23%
Julie 22%
Hollie 21%

If you look at last season's winner, Erik, he lost around 50% by the final weigh-in. That's a huge amount, and I wouldn't assume anyone would be able to do that this season. But I would think that of this group, only Neil (400+) and Isabeau (almost 300+) would have the starting size to drop anywhere close to that percentage. Bill has shown incredible dedication and has dropped the weight quickly, but to get to that 50% mark, he'd be down near 160. That seems unlikely.

On the other hand, I kind of doubt Neil will be able to reach that mark, and I really doubt Isabeau will. (But I also that Amy would gain back all her weight, so maybe I'm underestimating them.)

#17

albertj

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Posted Nov 29, 2007 @ 2:10 PM

Hawkeye720, I was looking at those numbers too. And Jacob's Hair Dye is right.

If Bill doesn't lose another ounce, and just maintains where he is right now, by my calculations, the other remaining contestants would have to lose this much to catch him:

Hollie: 33lbs
Isabeau: 32lbs
Julie: 25lbs
Neil: 21lbs
Nicole: 27lbs.

Again, that's assuming he doesn't lose another ounce. And if he loses the standard 1-2 lbs per week from here until the finale (which I understand is something like 3 months after filming), it would be extremely difficult for anyone to catch him (imo).

If he makes the finals, I think it's his.

On the 50% mark, even Neil is still 89lbs from that and Isabeau is 79.5lbs from it. Even if they blast another 30lbs off while they're on campus, that still leaves alot of weight to be lost on their own over 12 weeks.

Edited by albertj, Nov 29, 2007 @ 2:13 PM.


#18

Hawkeye720

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Posted Nov 29, 2007 @ 3:00 PM

On the 50% mark, even Neil is still 89lbs from that and Isabeau is 79.5lbs from it. Even if they blast another 30lbs off while they're on campus, that still leaves alot of weight to be lost on their own over 12 weeks.


Yeah, it's a lot, but again, just looking at Erik as an example, it's not impossible. He lost 124 at the ranch, and then another 90 at home before the finale. Again, that seems exceptional to me, and probably not attainable by these people, but it was possible for Erik. I seem to remember that the "loser bracket" people who were at the top were close to the 50% point, too.

#19

katje

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Posted Dec 1, 2007 @ 9:00 AM

Thinking about the way the weight-loss numbers have gone lately, I am guessing that in next week's episode, Hollie and Julie are likely to fall below the yellow line. If this happens, Hollie will probably be the one to go. Beyond that, I'm not sure. I think that Nicole has a good chance of being in the final four--she seems to be cranking up her effort in the workouts, which payed off in the most recent episode. Maybe Bill/Neil/Nicole/Isabeau?

#20

Pointe3579

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Posted Dec 1, 2007 @ 6:43 PM

I think that Nicole has a good chance of being in the final four--she seems to be cranking up her effort in the workouts, which payed off in the most recent episode. Maybe Bill/Neil/Nicole/Isabeau?



Unfortunately, those 4 seem like the most likely right now. I dislike Isabeau and Neil because they both seem to want to lose weight and then they will put it all back on after they have won. I would love to see Nicole, Hollie or Julie win because a female winner would be cool, but if it can't be a female then I want Bill to win. He's worked hard, stayed away from the drama during the season and he really seems like he is there for the right reasons. I agree with whoever posted upthread about he and his brother winning both prizes. Jim has been home since week 5 or so which I think will be a benefit to Bill when he is home before the finale. These two will support each other, yet compete with each other too to see who will lose the most. Jim looked great the week of the family visits after the make overs and that should be a good indication he is doing well at home.

#21

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Posted Dec 6, 2007 @ 5:15 PM

I've read through this forum (as well as subjecting myself to the crapfest that is this show...I'm still wishing for a show that has recovering alcoholics tempted by beautiful bottles o' booze.) Will it ever be possible to have a female Biggest Loser? I won't re-hash what we all know--hormones, less muscle tissue, etc.,=slower (and less! dramatic! weight! loss!)

I suppose my question is why even have the women on the show, since it's pretty much impossible for them to win unless they have access to amphetamines, clenbuterol, etc.

I suppose they have people on who won't be in the running so they can get on the track to better health....nah, who am I kidding?

#22

katje

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Posted Dec 6, 2007 @ 8:43 PM

I suppose my question is why even have the women on the show, since it's pretty much impossible for them to win unless they have access to amphetamines, clenbuterol, etc.

Consider this, though: Season-one winner Ryan lost 36.7% of his body weight. Matt from season two won with a loss of 46.31%. Poppi Kramer, the season-three at-home contestant from New Jersey, lost 50.4% of her body weight, winning the $50K for most % weight loss amongst the home players. Erik won Season Three with a 52.58% loss, but imagine Poppi against Ryan or Matt.

#23

Hawkeye720

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Posted Dec 7, 2007 @ 7:39 AM

There certainly haven't been that many women on the show who could lose 50% of their body weight and survive! But this season, I'd say that Isabeau (at 5'8" and 298) could probably lose that much along with already-eliminated Amber (5'4" and 290) and Amy (5'6" and 290). But at least for Isabeau, the weight isn't coming off that fast, so it's not likely to happen, at least in the timeframe of the game.

Edited by Hawkeye720, Dec 7, 2007 @ 7:42 AM.


#24

katje

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Posted Dec 7, 2007 @ 10:22 AM

I thought it might be interesting to go back and see how many female contestants from seasons two and three lost a greater percentage of body weight than Ryan did in season one. His percentage was 36.97, BTW; I typoed a bit above.

In season two, four of the women did: Suzy (41.85%), Andrea (41.45%), Shannon (42.02%), and Suzanne (37.00%).

Season three: on the ranch, three women out-paced Ryan--Kai (45.04%), Jen (40.77%) and Amy (40.77%). With the at-home contestants, in addition to Poppi and her 50.4%, there were Virginia of Vermont (41%) and Jennifer of Virginia (40%). I don't remember off-hand whether Jamie of Kentucky was male or female, but s/he pulled a 43%.

#25

dancingteacups

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Posted Dec 7, 2007 @ 10:35 PM

I think it depends mostly on your starting weight. The men are usually heavier so they usually win, because they have much more weight to lose. Isabeau, as noted above, started at 298, which (I believe, correct me if I'm wrong) is the heaviest a woman's ever been? At least on this season. I think if she makes it to the final three she has a really good chance of winning the whole thing. At this point she still has a lot to lose and if she can crank it up when she goes home, I think she might be the first female winner.

It's unfortunate because I'm not a big fan, but what can you do.

I also think this is where Bill's gonna get into trouble. He has very little weight left to lose, IMO. He looks great right now and if he went significantly below 200, I think he'd be too skinny. Neil, on the other hand, still has quite a bit of weight to drop, simply because he started at such a higher weight. So if those two both make it to the final three, I think Neil might win over Bill.

My prediction for the final four is Isabeau, Bill, Neil and Hollie. If both Hollie and Julie end up below the yellow line next week, I think Julie would be seen as the biggest threat - and would therefore be voted out.

#26

albertj

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Posted Dec 11, 2007 @ 11:04 AM

Katje, thank you for those numbers on past female contestants.

By those numbers, the average total weight-loss for those top-losers is 42.12 lbs, which drops slightly to 41.29 lbs if you exclude that 50.4% outlier.

So, assuming Isabeau follows that trend, by my calculations she needs to lose an additional 54.68 lbs to reach a 42% weight loss. (in other words, she'll have to lose almost 2/3rds as much weight at home as she has on Campus).

Bill needs to lose an additional 23.5 lbs to reach the 42% mark.

So I would still give the edge to Bill over Isabeau if they both make the finals.

Edited by albertj, Dec 11, 2007 @ 11:05 AM.


#27

Pointe3579

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Posted Dec 11, 2007 @ 2:49 PM

I still hope that Bill wins the whole thing. From the start he has worked hard, avoided the drama and never complained about anything. He really deserves it. And I think his brother, judging by how he looked on the makeover day, has a great shot to be near the top of the eiliminated players. Of course, you need to consider Kae and maybe Amy and B too because they looked great post elim.

#28

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Posted Dec 11, 2007 @ 7:52 PM

This is based solely on my opinions and feelings about everyone on the show, and then fact.
I don't want Hollie, Julie or Neil to win.

The facts are present in several above posts, and based on the % I am afraid that Isabeau and Julie are staying around and likely Neil, so that means I really want to see Bill pull it out this week so Hollie can FINALLY go home. I think that the network is pushing especially hard for a woman to win, er, I mean I think that the women have all worked to get here, and I would love to see it go to two men and two women, I would hate for Neil to lose because Bob won't be represented otherwise.
Phew that was a long sentence.
I am hoping that Bill is the winner too Pointe for the exact same reasons.
He is a classy guy!!!

#29

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Posted Dec 12, 2007 @ 10:48 AM

I'm not as quick with the numbers as everyone else, but no one picked up any substantial amount of ground on Bill over these last few weeks (since albert last did this analysis). In fact, most lost ground. Assuming Bill doesn't lose another pound, I think that Julie, Hollie and Isabeau have to lose 27, 37 and 35 pounds, respectively, to catch him.

I agree that Bill probably doesn't have a ton more weight to lose, but I think--pre-weigh-in dehydration and everything all told--he can feasibly get down to, let's say, 180. That would be a 46% weight loss. In that case, Julie, Hollie and Isabeau would have to lose 42, 55 and 56 more pounds (again, respectively) to match that. That would leave Julie at 118, Hollie at 139 and Isabeau at 161.

Given those calculations, I think Julie and Hollie are pretty much out of it--no surprise there. Isabeau could conceivably make a run at it, but she'd have to significantly step things up in order to get there. But Bill is clearly the heavy (no pun intended) favorite here, and it would be a real shock, I think, if he doesn't win.

Again...not so hot on the math, so someone correct me if I'm wrong on any of this.

#30

lessa2010

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Posted Dec 12, 2007 @ 12:16 PM

According to NBC's site the percetages are this right now:

Bill: 39%
Hollie: 25%
Julie: 27%
Isabeau: 27%

Those girls are going to have to kick into high gear and hope that Bill doesn't lose anything to win I think.

Oh and at 5'8 according to the BMI calculators I've looked at he could safely lose another 50lbs. He's still considered Obese at just over 200lbs.

Edited by lessa2010, Dec 12, 2007 @ 12:26 PM.