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Ratings & Scheduling: Chuck, Please


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#1

Glark

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Posted Sep 20, 2007 @ 4:05 PM

Will Chuck go the distance?

#2

rowanceleste

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Posted Sep 21, 2007 @ 1:31 PM

Btw, the pilot episode of Chuck is available on Amazon Un-box for free right now.

#3

WalkerIsBatman

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Posted Sep 21, 2007 @ 3:41 PM

I watched the pilot off of Amazon so I'm not that concerned about seeing it on TV - but when I check my DVR schedule it shows some interview show on in the timeslot that should be for Chuck. Is anyone else having this problem? Or is it just my wacky local NBC affiliate?

#4

rowanceleste

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Posted Sep 21, 2007 @ 8:30 PM

I watched the pilot off of Amazon so I'm not that concerned about seeing it on TV - but when I check my DVR schedule it shows some interview show on in the timeslot that should be for Chuck.


My DVR shows Chuck scheduled just before Heroes on Monday, September 24th.

#5

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Posted Sep 23, 2007 @ 10:48 PM

I wish it was not on the same time as How I Met Your Mother. I saw the pilot and it was really good.

#6

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 8:35 AM

Hm. Most of last year you could get Heroes streaming off of the NBC website starting the next day. (That's how I watched it - I'm never home Monday nights). I wonder if they'll do the same with Chuck, given that they already gave the pilot "internet preview" status.

#7

cutecouple

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 9:58 AM

Hard to say. It would be ideal, but NBC's under different management these days. I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

#8

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 11:38 AM

Not that it matters, because I think it expired, but I watched the Chuck pilot this weekend On Demand from Comcast. They had the pilots for Bionic Woman and Journeyman on there too.

#9

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 4:04 PM

I'm so curious how this will do in the ratings. There is a lot positive buzz around the quality, so I'm wondering whether they will have good ratings from the start or whether it is the kind of thing that has to build its audience slowly as people become attached to it.

#10

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 4:41 PM

Internet/critical buzz about quality doesn't always have much of an effect in ratings, especially it seems for NBC: Friday Night Lights was consistantly called one of the best things on TV by most of the critics failed to do well throughout the season, same to a lesser extent with 30 Rock, Studio 60 failed to take off in the expected manor after insane buzz about it before it aired, Kidnapped was predicted to do well etc. This potentially has a more popular edge than most of those shows, but it's hard to tell.

The good thing about NBC is that they usually have no choice but to let it run for a few weeks because they desperately need to see if it can pick up, and they know it's worked before with things like The Office, which I can imagine attracting some of the same crowd. Prison Break's row ratings last week bode better for attracting the curiousity of the male "cool action show" demo many of whom would be turning over for Heroes anyway. But I can also see How I met Your Mother drawing the same demo (different from the guy one obviously). Not that it's a massive threat, but it is an established show and one I want to do well also. The battle for 2nd place behind DWTS will be very interesting.

Edited by Featherhat, Sep 24, 2007 @ 4:43 PM.


#11

rowanceleste

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 5:26 PM

Well, I have to say, part of the issue with Friday Night Lights really probably was the fact that John Q. Public's response was 'Wait..Friday Night Lights isn't on Friday? What day is it on then??'

I do think shows do take some time to ramp up as there are many that wait for others to give it a try before they jump on the bandwagon, so I don't know if tonight is necessarily that 'do or die' as far as a ratings baseline for Chuck. They've been hyping the Heroes premiere, but I don't know how much promotion they've given to the fact that Chuck premieres before it, so people tune in early. I've seen a lot of online promotion for Chuck, which makes sense, but I don't know if NBC has made it clear through network promotion that it starts tonight. If so, I think it will do really well, although I don't expect it to start out with Heroes type numbers. I do really expect it to be a hit though, because unlike shows like Friday Night Lights, Firefly or Veronica Mars, I don't think you need to actually watch an episode to be intrigued by the premise. It already sounds good, so most people shouldn't really have to be convinced to watch it or give it a chance, IMO. I actually kind of expect the ratings for the second episode to be higher than the premiere, because those that watched the premiere and loved it are going to go to work tomorrow and tell their friends, family and co-workers and hopefully they'll tune in for the second episode.

#12

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 11:39 PM

Yeah, hopefully it will get some good word of mouth from people who enjoyed it. It seems to have been a close number two to Bionic Woman in terms of NBC's marketing efforts -- I've seen lots of ads, especially online, for it. Of course, in this increasingly segmented TV market no individual person can ever be sure what they're seeing is what other people, especially in different demographic groups, are seeing.

As for the time slot, it's personally tough for me as I watch Prison Break AND How I Met Your Mother. Still, I think it's better off Mondays at 8 instead of its original Tuesdays at 9 slot, where it faced the similarly themed Reaper and the juggernaut known as House.

#13

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Posted Sep 24, 2007 @ 11:41 PM

Internet/critical buzz about quality doesn't always have much of an effect in ratings,

I hope they swap this with the much lamer "Journeyman", because this timeslot is impossible. Expectations at 10PM are so much less, and I think it helps to be coming OUT of "Heroes" far more than it does to lead IN to it.

#14

tjl

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 12:30 AM

I think it helps to be coming OUT of "Heroes" far more than it does to lead IN to it.

Coming out of Heroes last season was kind of a time slot of death. Nothing seemed to survive. Whether that was the shows themselves, or the slot itself, I don't know.

#15

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 1:40 AM

Well Journeyman wasn't that good in my opinion, so I wouldn't miss it.

I'm just worried about this show being up against the monster competition its got. Heroes is a juggernaut at 9PM, but I'm not sure that's going to help Chuck all that much.

I'd say something like "I hope the massive ad campaign helped draw viewers", but from not only my own impressions of the ads, but also ones I've read from others, the ads severely undersold this show. They may have even hurt by giving the impression that the show is dumb instead of witty.

#16

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 3:25 AM

What raises hope is that apparently many people watched it with their kids/parents/family (and enjoyed it - well, duh!) So it's not just your typical internet-tv-addict who loves the show - something I was a little worried about. This might be important because as others have said, internet-buzz doesn't guarantee good ratings.

I'll try to be optimistic for once and predict a second place for the hour.

#17

LolaRuns

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 3:29 AM

It's hard to predict, but I think it will do well. It seems to have a nice combination of quirk, humor and action that should appeal to a variety of demographics.

From Programming Insider:

-Disappointing:
The Big Bang Theory (CBS), Chuck (NBC), Journeyman (NBC)

NBC took a hit in the Monday 8 p.m. hour, with the debut of dramedy Chuck at a second-place 6.4/10 in the overnights (versus a 9.4/15 for the first half of a two-hour edition of Deal or No Deal on the first Monday of the 2006-07 season). Demographically, though, there could be some momentum if Chuck skews young. Chuck led into the second season-premiere of Heroes at an overall second-place 8.8/13 from 9-10 p.m. Comparably, that was nine percent below its series-premiere on Sept. 25, 2006 (9.7/14), but up a considerable 37 percent from Chuck (hence the winner’s listing).


I'm somewhat confused, the ratings don't seem that bad, especially if the demos are good. It just looks bad compared to Dead or No Deal.

Edited by LolaRuns, Sep 25, 2007 @ 10:07 AM.


#18

Sanski

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 11:40 AM

And the fast nationals from pifeedback:

NBC dramedy Chuck got some sampling in the 8 p.m. hour, with a second-place finish in both total viewers (9.28 million) and adults 18-49 (3.6/ 9). But comparably that was off by double-digit percentages from the first half of a two-hour edition of former occupant Deal or No Deal one year earlier.


But Deal or No Deal wasn't up against Dancing with the Stars. I'm sure NBC wanted better, but 2nd place with decent demos certainly gives the PR department something to spin.

Hopefully, Chuck will be one of those shows that picks up some steam on the strength of postitive word-of-mouth.

#19

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 11:44 AM

Nope. It won't.

You see... I like it... which seems to be the kiss of death when it comes to new shows.

#20

jadenme

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 12:01 PM

Could the ratings be effected by the fact that a lot of people had already seen the Pilot? I mean, we watched it again last night, but just because we made it home in plenty of time for Heroes. We really liked the show, but since we had already watched it, it was not going to be a big deal if we missed it. Did they track how many people watched it online or On Demand?

#21

LolaRuns

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 12:06 PM

In what universe are 9 million bad ratings. Oy.

#22

rowanceleste

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 12:10 PM

NBC dramedy Chuck got some sampling in the 8 p.m. hour, with a second-place finish in both total viewers (9.28 million) and adults 18-49 (3.6/ 9). But comparably that was off by double-digit percentages from the first half of a two-hour edition of former occupant Deal or No Deal one year earlier.


9.28 million for the premiere and a 3.6/9 is pretty great, IMO! Heroes grew 37% out of Chuck, but that's an already wildly popular show. AFAIK, Chuck did better than Big Bang Theory by a little bit, but I'm not sure about JourneyMan. I'm not really too worried about JM though since I'm sure a lot of people did stay tuned to check it out after Heroes. Apparently there was a big drop off for Journeyman in the second half hour though, which doesn't bode well for that show. We'll have to see how many people tune in for Chuck next week. While I don't think Chuck will pull out Heroes type numbers, I do think the margin will narrow between them. It looks like it did beat the season premiere of How I Met Your Mother as well. Not sure who won the timeslot though?

#23

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 12:19 PM

Yeah, Marc Berman of Mediaweek/PIFeedback.com was too harsh on the show's numbers. I agree that you can't expect huge numbers when you're pitted against Dancing with the Stars. And its household numbers may not look good compared to Deal Or No Deal, but game shows skew old, which is never profitable. After all, why did NBC remove DoND from this timeslot in the first place? Because the numbers were slipping, that's why. The 18-to-34-year-old demo ratings for Chuck last night were probably better than anything DoND could deliver.

Better to look to Media Life Magazine for proper analysis:

CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” and NBC’s “Chuck” got off to promising starts last night, but it was the returning shows that dominated the evening.

ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” led the network to first place on the first night of the new season, averaging a 5.8 rating in adults 18-49, according to Nielsen overnights, while NBC’s “Heroes” recorded its best rating since March 5 and pushed the network to a close No. 2 for the evening.

For the night, ABC averaged a 4.7 rating and 12 share, followed by NBC at 4.6/11.

...NBC also had a big night. “Heroes” averaged a 6.5 at 9 p.m., easily winning its timeslot and up 10 percent over last year’s 5.9 for its premiere.

The network’s new 8 p.m. comedy “Chuck” averaged a 3.6 rating, finishing second in its slot behind “Dancing” and rising 17 percent from its first half hour to its second, from a 3.3 to a 3.9.

But the news was not as good at 10 p.m., where new drama “Journeyman” averaged a 3.7 rating, losing 43 percent of “Heroes’” lead-in. It finished second in the timeslot and dipped slightly from its first half hour to its second.

...At 8 p.m. ABC started the night in the lead with a 5.7 for the first hour of “Dancing,” followed by NBC with a 3.6 for “Chuck” and CBS with a 3.5 for “Mother” (3.2) and “Bang” (3.7). Fox was fourth with a 3.1 for “Break,” Univision fifth with a 1.2 for “Amar sin Limites” and CW sixth with a 0.7 for an hour of “Everybody Hates Chris” repeats.

NBC took the lead at 9 p.m. with a 6.5 for “Heroes,” while ABC fell to second with a 4.8 average for the last 30 minutes of “Dancing” and the first half hour of “The Bachelor.” CBS was third with a 4.5 average for “Two and a Half Men” (4.7) and “Rules of Engagement” (4.4), Univision fourth with a 2.4 for “Destilando Amor,” Fox fifth with a 2.3 for “K-Ville” and CW sixth with a 0.7 for repeats of “Girlfriends” and “The Game.”

At 10 p.m. CBS took a turn on top with a 4.6 for “CSI: Miami.” NBC was second with a 3.7 for “Journeyman,” ABC third with a 3.5 for “Bachelor” and Univision fourth with a 1.6 for “Cristina.”



#24

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 12:28 PM

Not sure who won the timeslot though?


Dancing with the Stars won the 8pm slot and was the #1 show for the night with over 20 million viewers. That's tough competition. Chuck was #2 in that hour in both viewers and the 18-49 demo. It didn't do as well as I'd hoped, but it did best established shows Prison Break and HIMYM (which I take no joy in since I like both of those shows) as well as upstart The Big Bang Theory (which I saw on itunes and think is absolutely atrocious.)

Half hour break down from pifeedback:

Chuck
8:00 p.m. V: 8.93 million, A18-49: 3.3/ 9
8:30 p.m. V: 9.64 million, A18-49: 3.9/10


Growth in the 2nd half hour is a good sign; NBC will be happy about that.

#25

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 12:58 PM

I don't think the ratings are that bad considering it was going up against the juggernaut that is DWTS and two established shows - HIMYM and PB. I'm pretty sure NBC will put a positive spin on it. We'll see how it holds up next week.

Edited by xavier03, Sep 25, 2007 @ 4:25 PM.


#26

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 1:33 PM

I don't think the ratings are that bad considering it was going up the juggernaut that is DWTS and two established shows - HIMYM and PB


Agreed and that's also true if you consider that the numbers are being compared to last year's Deal or No Deal premiere, which was when that show was at the height of its popularity.

Also, DWTS wasn't on Monday night last year, right?

Compare that to Journeyman, which premiered to lower numbers than Studio 60's poor debut and then lost viewers at the half-hour mark.

#27

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 3:10 PM

The Futon Critic makes it seem worse, if I'm reading it correctly:

The Peacock then served up the respective premieres of "Chuck" (households: 5.7/9, #9, half-hour: 5.17%; adults 18-49: 3.6, #8, half-hour: 15.38%), "Heroes" (households: 8.1/12, #4, half-hour: 7.14%; adults 18-49: 6.6, #1, half-hour: 4.48%) and "Journeyman" (households: 6.0/10, #T7, half-hour: -12.50%; adults 18-49: 3.7, #T6, half-hour: -17.65%).

In year-to-year comparisons, ... "Chuck," the newcomer fell shy of "Deal or No Deal's" premiere (households: 8.9/14; adults 18-49: 4.4 on 9/18/06) by 18.18%...


Which means Chuck was No. 9 in households and No. 8 in the 18-to-49 demographic for the night. Which doesn't seem great, does it?

#28

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 3:50 PM

Aw man. I can feel the disappointment of pending cancellation building already.

Anyway, are/were there additional episodes of Chuck available on On-Demand? Or was it just the Pilot?

#29

Sanski

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 4:27 PM

Which means Chuck was No. 9 in households and No. 8 in the 18-to-49 demographic for the night. Which doesn't seem great, does it?


I agree that phrasing it like that doesn't sound great, but it's out of 16 shows. However, I don't think rank for the night really gives a clear picture. It doesn't allow for time-slot variances (i.e. five networks competing at 8pm vs three at 10pm) or competition. (going up against a show with over 20 million viewers)

Plus the 8/9 ranking isn't entirely accurate depending on how you look at the numbers:
For Chuck's rating and 18-49 thefutoncritic uses an average over the hour. That average puts it into 9th and 8th place as you note. Now check out The Big Bang Theory. Thefutoncritic has it ranked higher than Chuck for the night in both categories: #T7 and #T6 respectively (T just means it's tied with another show.) However, if you look at the half hour breakdowns, Chuck's numbers went up significantly (17% according to Media Life Magazine quoted above) in the second half hour. Therefore, head-to-head at 8:30, Chuck actually had better numbers (both rating and 18-49) than The Big Bang Theory.

I can feel the disappointment of pending cancellation building already.


The numbers could have been better, but I'm confident we're a long way away from talking about cancellation. That's one good thing about being on a struggling network, #2 in the time-slot is considered a big win. So no need to worry yet.

#30

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Posted Sep 25, 2007 @ 4:43 PM

Yeah, Marc Berman of Mediaweek/PIFeedback.com was too harsh on the show's numbers.

The numbers don't seem that bad to me. It might be my imagination but Marc Berman seems to dislike and sneer at anything that is mixed genre, remotely quirky or has even the slightest tinge of sci-fi or the supernatural.