27 replies to this topic

[pablito]

We've all wondered about many "what if?" situations in Survivor. What would've happened if the females banded together in the first episode ever and voted out Rudy? Would the game have radically changed in the end or would we have still seen Richard vs. Wigglesworth in the end? What if Michael hadn't fallen into the fire? Would Ogakor really have dominated the second phase of the season? What if a tiebreaker contest of either trivia or making fire went the other way? This game aims to analyze a few small key changes and what effects they may have in the end.

Starting with Borneo, each tribal council will be affected (or not) in some manner. We theorize how the votes may have gone if some situation slightly changed. Then we continue onward until we get to the final two and we analyze who might have won.

Some Rules:

The key change must be based on a real event that happened. Random new events that change the game (ie: Jonny Fairplay gets chomped by a shark and is taken out of the game) are out of bounds. However, random events that did occur can be removed (ie: Jeff from Palau no longer trips on the coconut). Or failed coups can actually come to fruition (ie: Trish overthrows Rupert).

This game is not meant to be a popularity contest. Just because you like an evil cute girl, she cannot magically come up with a great strategy in this game and overthrow everyone. Events must be based on something that was actually shown on tv.

Some tribal councils don't need to radically change. If you think that it was someone's time then you can propose that the tribal council happened exactly as it had.

All immunity challenges and reward challenges must be won by the original individual/tribe (if the individual is still in the game). However, the manner in which it happens (who places second or who gets taken along on reward) can change. Only exception is when there was no original winner or has already been voted out. I'll explain that exception when it happens.

To prevent extraordinary unrealistic changes, we'll do some voting. After a proposed tribal council is posted, people must vote to either accept or reject it. If a proposal gets five rejections before five acceptances, then a new proposal must be done. If five acceptances are received before five rejections then we continue onto the next TC.


I'll do the first proposal to show how this goes:

In the first tribal council, Susan temporarily sticks with the women. (I don't like the end result, but it's the most realistic change)

Dirk: Sonja
Kelly: Rudy
Richard: Stacy
Rudy: Sonja
Sean: Sonja
Sonja: Rudy
Stacy: Rudy
Susan: Rudy

Rudy voted out (4-3-1).

Let's see if the proposal is accepted or rejected. Either way, I'd prefer someone else writes the next proposal.

[seltzer4]

I think its plausible...I think it would probably be the most likely time when Sue will change her vote.

so Accept

[deaja]

Accept. I think it seems likely.

[SVNBob]

Very plausible. Accepted.

[joem]

It's plausible, but, Sue was voting based on challenge strength at the time, so I'll reject this one because "Souna" was obviously weaker in the first challenge than Rudy.

[BermyTryangle]

When did the Tagi 4 get confirmed - if it hadn't happened yet then it could be possible that Sue votes against Rudy over Sonja but again, a longshot as Rudy was a Navy Seal and still useful in parts, so I'd reject it at this point.

[pablito]

In the interest of continuing a quickly dying thread, I'll add my own three rejection votes of the proposal. The Rudy proposal has been defeated. Considering that two votes already proposed that Sonja is voted out 4-3-1 (sonja-rudy-stacy) as it originally occurred, we'll continue on to the second TC and say that the Sonja proposal passed unanimously.

So if someone would be interested in writing the next proposal regarding the first Pagong TC?

ETA: My guess is that things won't really become intriguing until third and then later fifth and sixth TCs (when tribal strength wasn't necessarily the motivating factor). So if we manage to get to that point, this game might actually pick up.

Edited by pablito, Aug 28, 2005 @ 10:13 AM.

[seltzer4]

This one will probably stay the same...but I"ll try

Even though BB did want to leave, Gretchen and Jenna (The other hard workers) vote for Ramona

making it a 4-4 tie

votes against BB (Colleen, Gervase, Joel, Ramona)
votes against Ramona (BB, Gretchen, Jenna, Greg)

Tiebreaker is a trivia question.

Ramona loses and gets her torch snuffed.

um...yeah unlikely, but i can't think of anything else

[pablito]

Okay, in attempt to revive this game, let's try to re-do the last Africa episode. Final nine: Frank, Teresa, Brandon, Kim P, Kim J, Kelly, Ethan, Tom and Lex. Ethan won immunity and reward. Lex had two votes against Clarence's eight in the last tribal council - and this event turned the season around. We all know that Kelly was "smoked out" as the snake in the grass and thus became Lex's next immediate target.

This vote could've gone so many different ways - but it also opened up so many opportunities for the future that could've created an actual competitive endgame (unlike the first two seasons). Give your hypothesis on how this vote - or other future votes in Africa could have gone.

[joem]

This would be contingent on Brandon not being a total moron, so the plausibility is low. Also, I'm going with whoever was in 2nd place if the immunity winner is gone in this scenario.
F9: Sambuttheads + Kelly vote for Lex , others vote Kelly.
F8: Kim P wins immunity instead of Lex, Ethan booted, Kelly still targeted by Boran.
F7: Frank wins immunity instead of Lex, votes with Tom, T-Bird, and Mama Kim against Brandon . Kelly, Kim P. and Brandon vote Tom.
F6: Tom wins immunity. Older people alliance disagrees on Kelly/Kim P. boot. Former tribal lines reform, Kelly booted because of previous votes.
F5: Tom, Kim J., Frank, Kim P., T-bird are left. Since Lex & Ethan came 1,2 in the obstacle course, Kim P. wins immunity as easily the most athletic person left. Old Samburus vote off Tom as a threat for both immunity and F2 votes.
F4: Kim J wins immunity. 3 votes Kim P., Kim votes Frank.
F3: Kim J wins immunity. Kim, in an amazing stoke of stupidity, votes out Frank.

F2: Votes for T-Bird: Brandon, Kelly, Kim P., Frank
Votes for Mama Kim: Lex, Ethan, Tom

[pablito]

I think that as long as Brandon stuck with Samburu in F9, I can't think of any other possible way that the season could finish. At F7, I definitely would've expected that the old folks all team up to get rid of some of the young ones. The only other possible option I see is that Kim J would've been voted out at F5 instead of Tom. I would see Tom and Frank voting out Kim J or Teresa and the Kim J/Teresa voting out Tom - leaving Kim P to be a swing vote. She would vote out Kim J before Tom.

I think the jury votes would've definitely shifted more towards Teresa in the end though. I could see it closer to being a 6-1 vote than 4-3. I would see Lex respecting Teresa's gameplay. And Ethan would follow Lex's vote.


For Marquesas at jury stage, Rotu 4 have a teetering alliance with Vecepia. Kathy still has strong ties to Zoe, but does not trust the Rotu 4 as a whole. Sean and Vecepia clearly are working together, as are Paschal and Neleh.

The only time that Marquesas could have changed from its original result is at F9. An alliance that formed out of necessity rather than strategy stayed together until all offenders were gone. I would suspect that the Maraamu 5 (SV+K+NP) would stay together in all scenarios until they were final five.

F9: Tammy immunity. Instead of targetting Sean, the Rotu 4 decide to let Vee hold onto Sean for a while. These six target Kathy during the immunity challenge and decide to make Sean and Vecepia feel comfortable after the immunity challenge instead of being too confident. John and Tammy even go so far as to let Sean and Vee know that Zoe is at the absolutely bottom of the totem pole and they are above her. Kathy voted out 8-1 with only Kathy voting for Zoe (for betrayal).

F8. During Reward Sean and Paschal talk and realize that they're both being led by John. Paschal realizes that John is working N+P against S+V and vice versa. When they return to camp Sean tells Vee that he is the next real target and that they need to jump ship. Knowing that Four isn't enough to topple, Paschal and Neleh try to sway Zoe. Zoe feels regret for being forced to vote out the person she liked the most on the island, Kathy. Maraamu and Zoe vote out John, Rotu 3 vote for Sean. 5-3.

F7. Robert immunity. Bloc of five votes out Tammy. Tammy and Robert vote Zoe for her betrayal.

F6. Vee immunity. Bloc of five votes out Robert. Robert votes for Neleh.

F5. Sean wins car. Neleh was original second place and wins immunity. Zoe, Paschal and Neleh vote out Sean. Vee and Sean vote Neleh.

F4. Vee immunity. Zoe appeals to Vee regarding Neleh being annoying, but in the end Zoe's participation with Rotu 4 gets her voted out 3-1.

F3. Paschal falls off first during immunity. Vee and Neleh would have had to duke it out. I'll assume Neleh would've won immunity originally. Vee probably made the deal because she knew she would lose. Neleh votes out Vee.

Votes for Neleh: Zoe
Votes for Paschal: Kathy, Sean, Vee, Tammy, John, Robert

Amazingly, there wasn't much variation. It seems that Rotu 4 were destined to lose no matter what.

[Mr. 888]

I got one- So what would happen at Survivor: Pearl Islands if they never did the Outcast twist, that they skipped it all together?

[SVNBob]

Short gut answer: Darrah vs Sandra in the F2.

I've got a little more time now, so let me expound and expand.

With no Outcast twist, there's no return of Burton and Lil. Balboa is formed from the standard merge of Drake and Morgan.

Shawn or Rupert wins first individual immunity (the keelhauling), but since it's an aquatic challenge, Osten still quits, leaving Morgan down one.

Rupert wins the pecking order immunity (as he did in reality). Andrew is still the first Drake target, but now he's on the Jury.

Blowgun immunity won by either Rupert or Shawn, sending RyanO. to the Jury. And the fish are spared.

The next immunity is the word game, and Darrah would win that, as she did. Tijuana is booted. Leaving Darrah by herself with 5 Drakes.

Luckily Darrah's on an Immunity run, picking up the next 2 as well. Being outside the core Drake alliance, Shawn and Fairplay lose out, in no particular order.

F4 is now Rupert, Christa, Sandra, and Darrah. F4 immunity is the trivia challenge vs. the jury. Assuming the jury still won, the women take the opportunity to rid themselves of Rupert. In fact, the only way Rupert would have stayed at this point was if he'd won immunity himself.

F3 is the balance challenge. Sandra'd probably be out first, as per reality, leaving Christa vs. Darrah. Since she's the smaller and more agile of the 2, Darrah would win final immunity and boot off Christa.

Edited by SVNBob, Oct 6, 2005 @ 4:00 AM.

[seltzer4]

What would happen for Survivor Thailand, if the merge did happen at 10?

[SVNBob]

Well, we know Shii Ann was flipping sides (as was the proper move), so she wouldn't have been voted out and probably would have made F6 for sure. Either Jake or Penny would then have booted first, with the other joining Ken and Erin on the jury.

Shii Ann also strikes me as the one person that season that could have figured out that Brian had made F2 deals with everyone. And she would have called him on it in front of everyone...at TC. Hopefully it would have been at the TC when Ted won immunity, thanks to his brother's help. So Brian would have been revealed and booted, followed by Clay. Leaving Shii Ann, Ted, Helen, and BatshitCrazy Jan as the F4. And almost totally separating us from reality.

Ted probably would have won the F4 immunity, and Jan would be the likely boot then. The F3 immunity is a tossup between the women, but I'd give the edge to Shii Ann, based on All Stars. But as I figure it, no matter who she picked, that person would win the season because I don't see her former tribe (3) and either Brian or Clay voting for her in the final vote. So it seems either Ted or Helen would win...probably Helen. After all, the curse is always in effect.

[Eponah]

I've been watching Season 2, Outback on DVD and there's a couple of "what ifs."

The first, of course, is what if Mike hadn't fallen into the fire. Which tribe would have won the immunity challenge, and who would have been voted out? If Kucha won, they go into the merge 6-4 and probably pagong Ogakor before turning on each other. If Ogakor won, who would Kucha have voted out? I'm guessing Nick, so if Kucha still voted for Colby at the Merge, everything would have been about the same except switch Nick and Mike in the jury (unless Mike gave Colby a run for his money for the immunities).

Secondly, what if Kucha had been smart enough to realize that Jerri had votes against her and voted her instead of Colby. Both Jerri and Jeff had 2 prior votes, so what would have been the tie-breaker there and what would have changed if Jerri had gotten the boot instead of Jeff?

[BK1978]

What would have happened in S6 if Butch would have won immunity at final four over Jenna M.?

I see the guys voting in a bloc to get out Jenna. However, at the F3 say Matt still won who would he have taken? Does he go with Rob C. whom pretty much brought him to that spot? Or does he take his good friend Butch? My bet is he would take Butch. Butch would win and quite possibly could have been the first player to win 7-0 in the finals.

[seltzer4]

In Survivor Palau, what would happen if there was a switch...let's say after four people (Jolanda/Ashlee/Jeff/Kim) were voted off?

[SVNBob]

What would have happened in S6 if Butch would have won immunity at final four over Jenna M.?

I see the guys voting in a bloc to get out Jenna. However, at the F3 say Matt still won who would he have taken? Does he go with Rob C. whom pretty much brought him to that spot? Or does he take his good friend Butch? My bet is he would take Butch. Butch would win and quite possibly could have been the first player to win 7-0 in the finals.

Jenna won the original S6 F3 immunity, not Matt. And I don't think Butch would have won myself. So that immunity would have been a battle between Matt and Rob. And somehow, the F2 would be them. Either a deal is struck, or Matt "steps" off as he did in the real version.

But a Rob/Matt F2 would have Cesterino winning the game hands down.

Edited by SVNBob, Oct 30, 2008 @ 12:06 AM.

[BK1978]

Had to dig to find this topic.

In Vanuatu, what if the Twila, Scout, Chris and Eliza alliance never happened and Chris was booted at F7 instead?

[SVNBob]

In Vanuatu, what if the Twila, Scout, Chris and Eliza alliance never happened and Chris was booted at F7 instead?

My guess? Ami would have won.

Let's work through it. F7: Chris booted instead of Leanne.
F6 IC is the shuffleboard-style challenge that Chris won in our reality. Julie was a pretty close second though, so she takes it in this reality. The alliance of Ami/Leanne/Julie holds together and keeps Eliza. Boot goes to either Twila or Scout.
F5 IC was Jeff's story time. Eliza wins that in both realities, and whichever of Twila and Scout wasn't booted last time gets booted here.
F4 IC was the vertical maze. With the F4 of Ami, Leanne, Julie, and Eliza, this is a much closer competition than the original blowout. Eliza takes it though (she was a close second to the original winner Chris.) With Eliza immune, Ami has to choose between her main 2 allies. Julie gets the boot here.
F3 IC was the "drawing the bow" endurance. Ami vs. Leanne vs. Eliza. Ami takes it. And taking a decent read of the jury, she votes out Leanne.

The Jury of Sarge, Chad, Chris, Twila, Scout, Julie, and Leanne. It splits almost on gender lines. The women vote for Ami (enough for a win), but so does Chris, respecting strategy. The other two guys vote less for Eliza and more against Ami. So still 5-2, Vanuatu is decided.

[BermyTryangle]

I would agree with your prediction and analysis. Most likely Twila goes before Scout in the situation you mentioned.

[raceguy120390]

What if everything else stayed the same, but Sook Jai won the F10 IC after the fake merge in Thailand?

[TVWatcherPerson]

Had to dig to find this topic.

In Vanuatu, what if the Twila, Scout, Chris and Eliza alliance never happened and Chris was booted at F7 instead?

This is an invalid proposal, IMO. Chris wasn't going to be voted off that night regardless of whether that alliance was formed or not, Eliza was the target. Chris recieved no votes at that tribal. There's too many factors that would have to be altered to come up with a scenario where Chris would have been voted off that night.

The better question is what would have happened if the T/S/C/E alliance hadn't been formed and Eliza had been voted out that night. We'd be left with Scout, Twila, Julie, Chris, Ami, and Leann. I believe Chris would have teamed up with Ami/Leann/Julie and created a majority against Twila and Scout. Leaving a final four of Chris/Ami/Leann/Julie and per the rules set in the first post Chris would have won the next two immunity challenges (since he did originally anyway) and still made the final2. I believe Leann/Julie/Chris would have voted Ami out in 4th place to save themselves from a random tiebreaker challenge. Now the question becomes would Chris choose Julie or Leann to take with him to the final2. I believe he would have taken Leann because she was less liked than Julie and more connected to the hated Ami, who in this scenario Twila and Scout would blame for voting them out and also in this reality Ami would have succesfully backstabbed Eliza, instead of the unseccesful attempt that occured in reality.

So we have a Leann and Chris final2 with a jury of Chad, Sarge, Eliza, Twila, Julie, Ami, and Scout. Ami and Julie vote for Leann while Sarge, Chad, Eliza, Twila, and Scout vote for Chris. Chris wins 5-2, just as he did in reality.

Any takers for this proposal?

Edited by TVWatcherPerson, Feb 8, 2009 @ 8:45 PM.

[SVNBob]

I recently re-watched the double-TC episode of Palau.

As a summary, the events of the episode:

• Koror wins/Ulong loses (again) the RC, mostly because Ibreheim was unable to retrieve a bottle from under water.
• Ulong makes plans to vote out Ibrehiem.
• Koror votes out Willard.
• As the final part of reward, Koror votes to give Ibreheim immunity.
• After a 2-2-1 tie and a revote, Angie is voted out.

After watching, the thought occurred to me; what if Ulong had won this RC? (change point 1 above) Point 2 is obviously null, but what of the other 3? Who would Ulong vote out? Who would they decide gets immunity? Would it be Willard? If so, who would Koror vote out instead? And the big question, how would any of this effect the remainder of the game?

Edited by SVNBob, Mar 21, 2009 @ 9:00 PM.

[raceguy120390]

If Ulong won, I think they might have given it to a person they liked, rather than to who they think was about to be voted out. After all, it's how they voted in their own Tribal Councils. So I'd say they would have given it to Tom, thus making it pointless, and Willard would still have been voted out. But if they had given it to Willard, I'd wager dollars to donuts on Janu going home.

No idea how the game would change from then on, though.

[SnideAsides]

From the age/gender/class issues thread in GenGab, regarding Sherea's game plan in China:

TheShowStopper, I won't argue about Sherea because I honestly can't remember what happened. Although I would think that she tried burying JR because she knew full well that she was an obvious target after the switch-up and was trying to get him booted instead. Also, Dave was much louder and more obnoxious than she was anyway.

It's been a while since I rewatched China, but I don't think she had too bad a game plan. Mostly, she was screwed by Leslie more than anything. In the tribal phase, votes often come down to who sucks at challenges, and she saved herself for the first four weeks by excelling in them - Zhan Hu loses three challenges and still votes out Chicken, Ashley, and Dave for personality-based reasons, while they win one and Fei Long votes out Leslie (after she has given Todd a clue for the HII). At this point, Zhan Hu kidnaps James and Aaron while Fei Long kidnaps Frosti and Sherea. Zhan Hu throws Immunity Challenge #5 and votes out Aaron, then in Episode 6 Todd finds the HII with Leslie's clue and gives it to James after kidnapping him, after which he also finds Zhan Hu's HII.

If Leslie doesn't tell Todd her clue, James doesn't wind up with any idols, and Zhan Hu's plan to throw the challenge to vote him off likely works as planned. This puts the original tribes at 5-5 heading into the merge, with the only actual change being Sherea replacing James. Despite the even tribes, it wouldn't have been too hard for Zhan Hu to convince Courtney to flip and vote for Jean-Robert, and he gets booted in tenth instead of ninth. Courtney still wins the dragon barrel Immunity Challenge at F9, and either Amanda or Todd (likely Amanda, let's be honest) is voted out at F9 by the now-majority alliance. The next three challenges were all won by Zhan Hu members anyway, and so Denise, Todd, and Courtney are voted out without any major dramas. The remaining two ICs were both won by Amanda. Assuming Sherea's mad challenge skillz hold out, she sweeps them and winds up in the Final 3, with two of Frosti, Erik, Jaime, and Peih-Gee. I'd think it likely Frosti gets voted out at F5 as a potential challenge threat in the absence of Sherea, and then at F4 Erik likely gets the "nobody wants to face you at the Final Tribal Council" boot. This gives us a Final 3 of Sherea, Jaime, and Peih-Gee. The jury is made of the five Fei Long members who made the merge, Frosti, and Erik. It's hard to predict who Frosti would vote for, but Erik votes for Jaime, while the five Fei Long would probably vote for Sherea (having spent more time with her), and she wins.

[Afterglows]

But Zhan Hu didn't want to throw the gross-food challenge that would have sent James home. They were trying to hardest to win it because Sherea, in a dumb move on her part, didn't make it clear during the previous reward challenge that she would still be open to working with PG/Erik/Jamie.

That occurred before James' kidnapping back to Fei Long so even if he went back to Zhan Hu without an HII/clue they all would have still been trying to win that last challenge and she goes home the same night regardless.

The first, of course, is what if Mike hadn't fallen into the fire. Which tribe would have won the immunity challenge, and who would have been voted out? If Kucha won, they go into the merge 6-4 and probably pagong Ogakor before turning on each other. If Ogakor won, who would Kucha have voted out? I'm guessing Nick, so if Kucha still voted for Colby at the Merge, everything would have been about the same except switch Nick and Mike in the jury (unless Mike gave Colby a run for his money for the immunities).

Having no idea what the challenge would have been, I have to assume that Kucha was still going to win because they could have sat Rodger. If Ogakor won and Kucha went back to TC then I think Nick gets booted because he's in the weakest alliance. Mike seems like the type that would have been all-in on the pole-standing challenge and if that were the case they could have gone for Keith who they felt confident had votes. I think if that were the case then it's a Pagonging with Mike/Alicia/Jeff left as the F3 and Mike winning the game if he wins the final challenge.

Secondly, what if Kucha had been smart enough to realize that Jerri had votes against her and voted her instead of Colby. Both Jerri and Jeff had 2 prior votes, so what would have been the tie-breaker there and what would have changed if Jerri had gotten the boot instead of Jeff?

Jeff only had one prior vote (from Debb at the first TC, Kimmi's vote against him at her TC wasn't read) so had Kucha voted for Jerri at the merge TC then she would have gone home instead of Jeff. From there it would have to be a straight Pagong based on what they said following Mike's exit.

I think Rodger or Elizabeth is voted out at F5 because Jeff had an alliance with Alicia, and Alicia had a weaker alliance with Nick and so if they vote based on that then either Rodger/Elizabeth goes that night because either one would win the game if they made it to the FTC. The other goes at F4, and I think Alicia/Jeff stay together at F3 and if one of them wins the challenge then Nick goes home. That challenge is really a tossup though because it's hard to know who would be able to answer the questions the best.

If Jeff/Alicia goes to the FTC then that's another tossup. Elizabeth and Nick were closer to Alicia and Rodger would have probably leaned that way also. She very would could win had Kucha made the right decision on Jerri instead of Colby.