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The TAR Predictions Thread, or: Pick A Card, Any Card


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#211

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Posted Jan 2, 2008 @ 12:50 PM

After eight legs:

Season 12:
  1: TK & Rachel         (12)  33   412   8
  1: Azaria & Hendekea   (12)  33   412   6
  3: Kynt & Vyxsin       (12)  32   400   8
  4: Nathan & Jennifer   (12)  30   375   8
  5: Ronald & Christina  (12)  27   337   8
  6: Nicolas & Donald    (12)  24   300   8
  7: Lorena & Jason      (12)  17   212   4
  8: Shana & Jennifer    (12)  16   200   5
  9: Marianna & Julia    (12)   5    62   3
 10: Kate & Pat          (12)   3    37   2
 11: Ari & Staella       (12)   0     0   1

TK&R move up by way of their first-place finish, to tie with A&H. K&V are just marginally behind. N&D trail by a significant margin.

#212

theschnauzers

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Posted Jan 2, 2008 @ 2:27 PM

Now, we're seeing the differences between Netfott's methodology and mine. A/H still have the best average until they were eliminated, but R/TK now has the second best average placement of the season. The four remaining team are all within one average placement of one another.
Except for Jennifer/Nathan, all remaining teams have won at least one leg. All of the final four teams have had good weeks and bad weeks, which is one reason why the average placements are so close to one another.

Team........................Aver.....Pl/Legs...L1...L2...L3...L4...L5...L6...L7...L8

Rachel/TK................03.50.....28/8.....3.....6.....2.....7.....1.....4.....4.....1
Jennifer/Nathan.........03.87.....31/8.....10.....2.....3.....2.....5.....3.....2.....4
Ronald/Christina.......04.25.....34/8.....7.....9.....5.....3.....3.....1.....3.....3
Nicolas/Donald.........04.62.....37/8.....5 .....8.....6.....4.....6.....5.....1.....2

Kynt/Vyxsin..............03.62.....29/8.....2.....4.....4.....5.....2.....2.....5.....5 (eliminated)
Azaria/Hendekea .......03.00.....18/6.....1.....5.....1.....1.....4.....6 (eliminated)
Shana/Jennifer.........05.80.....29/5.....6.....3.....7.....6.....7 (eliminated)
Lorena/Jason............05.25.....21/4.....4.....1.....8.....8 (eliminated)
Marianna/Julia...........08.33.....25/3......9.....7.....9 (eliminated)
Kate/Pat....................09.00.....18/2......8....10 (eliminated)
Ari/Staella..................11.00.....11/1.....11 (eliminated)

Aver=Average Placement Pl/Legs=total placements divided by total legs; L1, L2, etc.= Placement by leg.

#213

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Posted Jan 7, 2008 @ 1:44 AM

After nine legs:

Season 12:
  1: TK & Rachel         (12)  33   366   9
  1: Azaria & Hendekea   (12)  33   366   6
  3: Nathan & Jennifer   (12)  32   355   9
  3: Kynt & Vyxsin       (12)  32   355   8
  5: Ronald & Christina  (12)  30   333   9
  6: Nicolas & Donald    (12)  25   277   9
  7: Lorena & Jason      (12)  17   188   4
  8: Shana & Jennifer    (12)  16   177   5
  9: Marianna & Julia    (12)   5    55   3
 10: Kate & Pat          (12)   3    33   2
 11: Ari & Staella       (12)   0     0   1

TK&R remain tied with A&R for with the best score, despite their coming last this leg. But the gap between them and the next bunch (N&J and K&V also tied) is small. R&C are a ways back, and N&D are trailing by a significant amount, which doesn't bode well for them.

Interestingly, TK&R could potentially just make it into the top-20 best racers ever, and N&J and R&C are not far from that either. Sadly, the best N&D can hope for at this stage is to (barely) make the top-40. Either way, K&V and A&H will also comfortably make the top-40.

#214

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Posted Jan 7, 2008 @ 12:47 PM

Leg 9 made things even tighter among the final four teams, so that at best, Nicolas/Donald might have to take the final cut. But I doubt things are that sile. As things stands it's possible the final four teams will have a final placement average lower than the two teams who were eliminated in fifth and sixth place.

Team........................Aver....Pl/Legs..L1..L2..L3..L4..L5..L6..L7..L8..L9

Rachel/TK................03.56....32/9....3....6....2....7....1....4....4....1....4
Jennifer/Nathan.........03.67....33/9....10....2....3....2....5....3....2....4....2
Ronald/Christina.......03.89....35/9....7....9....5....3....3....1....3....3....1
Nicolas/Donald.........04.44....40/9....5 ....8....6....4....6....5....1....2....3

Kynt/Vyxsin..............03.62....29/8....2....4....4....5....2....2....5....5 (eliminated)
Azaria/Hendekea .......03.00....18/6....1....5....1....1....4....6 (eliminated)
Shana/Jennifer.........05.80....29/5....6....3....7....6....7 (eliminated)
Lorena/Jason............05.25....21/4....4....1....8....8 (eliminated)
Marianna/Julia...........08.33....25/3.....9....7....9 (eliminated)
Kate/Pat....................09.00....18/2.....8....10 (eliminated)
Ari/Staella..................11.00....11/1....11 (eliminated)

Aver=Average Placement Pl/Legs=total placements divided by total legs; L1, L2, etc.= Placement by leg.

Edited by theschnauzers, Jan 7, 2008 @ 12:55 PM.


#215

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Posted Jan 14, 2008 @ 6:59 PM

At the end of the penultimate episode:

Season 12:
  1: TK & Rachel         (12)  35   350  10
  2: Ronald & Christina  (12)  33   330  10
  2: Azaria & Hendekea   (12)  33   330   6
  4: Nathan & Jennifer   (12)  32   320  10
  4: Kynt & Vyxsin       (12)  32   320   8
  6: Nicolas & Donald    (12)  26   260  10
  7: Lorena & Jason      (12)  17   170   4
  8: Shana & Jennifer    (12)  16   160   5
  9: Marianna & Julia    (12)   5    50   3
 10: Kate & Pat          (12)   3    30   2
 11: Ari & Staella       (12)   0     0   1

TK/R lead, R&C tied with A&H for second (thanks to A&H's early successes). N&J tied with K&V just a touch behind, and N&D trailing. In overall position, TK/R stand to finish in the low 20s with R&C looking at mid 20s. N&D can only hope for low to mid 40s. A&H will finish in the high 20s, while N&J will tie with K&V for 33rd best racers ever.

#216

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Posted Jan 14, 2008 @ 9:03 PM

Netfoot, remember last season when we weren't able to see any differences between your method and mine? There's a few this time around.
As things stand at the moment, Kynt/Vyxsin place ahead of Jennifer/Nathan by about .08; however, it is possible with a Ronald/Christina win and a Rachel/TK show at the final mat, there could be a three-way tie for teams in third position behind Azaria/Hendekea, who end up with the best average placement this season no matter what, and with Kynt/Vyxsin with a razor-thin edge over those just-mentioned three teams. On the other hand, only TK/Rachel have a chance of edging out Kynt/Vyxsin in second place among this season's teams if TK/Rachel finish the final leg in first or second position. No matter how Nicolas/Donald finish the final leg, they will be in the middle position (6th) among this season's teams.

Team........................Aver....Pl/Legs..L1..L2..L3..L4..L5..L6..L7..L8..L9..L10

Rachel/TK..............03.40....34/10....3....6....2....7....1....4....4....1....4....2
Ronald/Christina.....03.60....36/10....7....9....5....3....3....1....3....3....1....1
Nicolas/Donald.......04.30....43/10....5 ....8....6....4....6....5....1....2....3....3

Jennifer/Nathan.......03.70....37/10....10....2....3....2....5....3....2....4....2....4 (eliminated)
Kynt/Vyxsin............03.62....29/8....2....4....4....5....2....2....5....5 (eliminated)
Azaria/Hendekea .....03.00....18/6....1....5....1....1....4....6 (eliminated)
Shana/Jennifer.......05.80....29/5....6....3....7....6....7 (eliminated)
Lorena/Jason..........05.25....21/4....4....1....8....8 (eliminated)
Marianna/Julia.........08.33....25/3.....9....7....9 (eliminated)
Kate/Pat..................09.00....18/2.....8....10 (eliminated)
Ari/Staella................11.00....11/1....11 (eliminated)

Aver=Average Placement Pl/Legs=total placements divided by total legs; L1, L2, etc.= Placement by leg.

#217

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Posted Jan 15, 2008 @ 12:19 AM

There are only six possible placements, and my computer as run them all.

TK & Rachel will rank at the top, no matter what. If they place 3rd and Ron & Christina place 1st, then those two teams will tie for the first first ranking. Any other outcome, and TK/R will win outright, and R/C will be second.

Azaria & Hendekea will most likely rank 3rd, but if R/C finish the leg in 3rd place, then A/H will tie with them for the 2nd place overall ranking.

Nathan & Jennifer will tie for the 4th ranking with K3nt & Vyxz3n, no matter how the remaining teams finish the last leg.

No matter how they place, Nick & Don end up 6th overall. Even their placing first, won't change their average enough to change their overall position.

I have not studied your method closely, but I assume that some differences between our results may be marginal, and caused by the precision of our computations. For instance, we agree about N/D in 6th, and the difference between our K/V and N.J finish is numerically small. OTOH, I don't get A/H as placing first. The best they can do is tie for 2nd with R/C.

The difference is in the base assumptions. I am not averaging placements, as you do. I am computing the number of 'victories' (teams beaten), averaged across 100 legs. (The 100 legs is simply to eliminate the decimal points, and dampen the effect of different seasons having numbers of legs.) In your case, you have A/H averaging 3.00 which is 1+5+1+1+4+6/6 but this score has remained the same since they were eliminated, five legs ago. In my scheme, A/H's score has diminished leg by leg, as other teams have continued to race and accumulated more 'victories.'

Our philosophies differ. I don't think that either one is any more right than the other. They are just different ways of looking at the performance of the various teams.

#218

theschnauzers

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Posted Jan 15, 2008 @ 1:00 AM

The funny thing is that in my method of computing this, there has rarely been two teams with the exact same, or extremely close to the exact same placement average from the same season (oddly enough that was season one with Esquire and Danza), and the possibility exists that there could be three teams exactly tied.
The other thing is that I don't think I've had four teams from the same season with such a close spread of average placements, which contributes to the differences.

#219

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Posted Jan 21, 2008 @ 9:51 AM

After the conclusion of the 12th season of The Amazing Race the teams rank as follows:

  1: TK & Rachel         (12)  37   336  11
  2: Ronald & Christina  (12)  34   309  11
  3: Azaria & Hendekea   (12)  33   300   6
  4: Nathan & Jennifer   (12)  32   290  10
  4: Kynt & Vyxsin       (12)  32   290   8
  6: Nicolas & Donald    (12)  26   236  11
  7: Lorena & Jason      (12)  17   154   4
  8: Shana & Jennifer    (12)  16   145   5
  9: Marianna & Julia    (12)   5    45   3
 10: Kate & Pat          (12)   3    27   2
 11: Ari & Staella       (12)   0     0   1

Pretty much as predicted in recent weeks.

TK/R placed 20th overall, of 124 TAR teams, including all seasons but TAR8/FE. This places them just before Ron & Kelly (season 7) and slightly behind tied teams Reichen & Chip (season 4) and Joe & Bill (in their season 1 race).

#220

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Posted Jan 21, 2008 @ 1:56 PM

The final three teams finished in the exact order of their average placements since Kynt and Vixsen were eliminated. Rachel.TK ended with an placement ahead of the winners of four earlier seasons, and within .01 of a placement of another winning team. They enter the overall list at 24th (or 26th if one includes the Family Edition). Although Nicolas/Donald finished a full placement behind Rachel/TK, they finished ahead of four previous final three teams.

Team........................Aver....Pl/Legs..L1..L2..L3..L4..L5..L6..L7..L8..L9..L10.L11

Rachel/TK................03.18....35/11....3....6....2....7....1....4....4....1....4....2....1
Ronald/Christina.......03.45....38/11....7....9....5....3....3....1....3....3....1....1....2
Nicolas/Donald.........04.18....46/11....5 ....8....6....4....6....5....1....2....3....3....3

Jennifer/Nathan.........03.70....37/10....10....2....3....2....5....3....2....4....2....4 (eliminated)
Kynt/Vyxsin..............03.62....29/8....2....4....4....5....2....2....5....5 (eliminated)
Azaria/Hendekea .......03.00....18/6....1....5....1....1....4....6 (eliminated)
Shana/Jennifer.........05.80....29/5....6....3....7....6....7 (eliminated)
Lorena/Jason............05.25....21/4....4....1....8....8 (eliminated)
Marianna/Julia...........08.33....25/3.....9....7....9 (eliminated)
Kate/Pat....................09.00....18/2.....8....10 (eliminated)
Ari/Staella..................11.00....11/1....11 (eliminated)

Aver=Average Placement Pl/Legs=total placements divided by total legs; L1, L2, etc.= Placement by leg.

Edited by theschnauzers, Jan 21, 2008 @ 1:58 PM.


#221

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Posted Oct 12, 2009 @ 1:03 AM

I've given this thread a boost since some folks want to engage in this sort of analysis again.

I'll post the final numbers from TAR 13 and 14 as soon as I can, along with the one for TAR 15 to date, which I already have calculated. I also have a list of all Racers in order of average placement from best to worst that includes all of the seasons, except for the Family Edition, I'll get that ready for posting soon.

The Amazing Race, season 13

11 episodes, 8 eliminations, U-turn in third leg was not used, Mark/Bill were eliminated due to penalty in not following detour clue, Ken/Tina won fast forward in leg 4; Terence and Sarah were penalized for speeding after leg 5 and departed 5th on leg 6, Ken/Tina finished last in leg 6 and had to complete a Speed Bump on leg 7. Nick/Starr won fast forward in leg 8.

Team........................Aver....Pl/Legs.......L1..L2..L3..L4..L5..L6..L7..L8..L9..L10.L11

Nick/Starr 2.45 27/11 1 6 6 5 1 1 1 1 3 1 1
Ken/Tina 2.63 29/11 2 1 1 1 4 6 4 3 2 3 2
Andrew/Dan 5.18 57/11 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 3
Toni/Dallas 3.10 31/10 6 5 2 4 2 3 2 2 1 4 (eliminated)
Terence/Sarah 3.25 26/8 3 3 3 2 3 4 3 5 (eliminated)
Kelly/Christy 5.16 36/7 5 7 8 3 5 2 6 (eliminated)
Aja/Ty 6.20 31/5 8 4 5 7 7 (eliminated)
Marisa/Brooke 7.75 31/4 10 9 4 8 (eliminated)
Mark/Bill 5.00 15/3 4 2 9 (eliminated)
Anthony/Stephanie 9.50 19/2 9 10 (eliminated)
Anita/Arthur 11.00 11/1 11 (eliminated)


The Amazing Race, season 14

12 episodes, 8 eliminations, 1 überleg. On leg 4 Margie and Luke U-Turned Amanda and Kris; In leg 6 Christie/Jodi had to complete a Speed Bump after finishing last in NEL Leg 5. Mark and Michael incured 2 30-minute penalties in leg 7, which also included an unaired and unused Fast Forward. There was no roadblock in leg 7. In Leg 8, Kisha and Jen arrived third and incurred a penalty and had to retrieve their travel documents before they were checked in 4th ark and Michael incurred two two-hur penalties for using their personal possessions to pay taxis and were checked in 5th. Since the 8th leg was a NEL, they had to complete their penalty at the start of leg 9, and complete a Speed Bump. Leg 10 was an überleg; the second half of the leg contained a U-Turn; Tammy and Victor U-Turned LaKisha and Jennifer.

Team.........................Aver...Pl/Legs.L1..L2..L3..L4..L5..L6..L7..L8..L9..L10a.L10b..L11
Tammy & Victor 2.25 27/12 2 1 8 3 2 1 1 3 2 (3) 1 1
Margie & Luke 2.75 33/12 1 4 4 4 1 4 4 1 3 (2) 2 3
Cara & Jaime 3.92 47/12 7 6 7 5 3 5 2 2 4 (1) 3 2
Kisha & Jen 4.27 47/11 8 7 3 2 6 3 5 4 1 (4) 4 (eliminated)
Mark & Michael 5.22 47/9 3 8 5 7 5 6 3 5 5 (eliminated)
Mel & Mike 3.57 25/7 4 2 1 6 4 2 6 (eliminated)
Christie & Jodi 6.67 40/6 10 9 6 1 7 7 (eliminated)
Amanda & Kris 4.50 18/4 5 3 2 8 (eliminated)
Brad & Victoria 6.67 20/3 6 5 9 (eliminated)
Linda & Steve 9.50 19/2 9 10 (eliminated)
Jennifer & Preston 11.00 11/1 11 (eliminated)


and here is Race 15, after 4 legs:

The Amazing Race, season 15

12 episodes, 12 legs,9 eliminations, 1 at the start line. Leg 1 did not have a Detour and was a NEL at the pit stop. Maria/Tiffany incurred a two-hour penalty for not completing a task, in addition to incurring a NEL penalty and a Speedbump on the second leg. There was an unaired U-Turn on leg 3 (by Mika/Canaan on Lane/Keri) but it did not affect the leg. In Leg 4, Zev/Justin arrived first at the pit stop but lost a passport, and were eliminated since they could not proceed without their travel documents.

Team........................Aver..Pl/Legs.......L1..L2..L3..L4..L5..L6..L7..L8..L9..L10..L11...L12

Flight Time/Big Easy 2.75 11/4 5 3 1 2
Meghan/Cheyne 3.50 14/4 1 6 2 5
Gary/Matt 3.75 15/4 7 1 3 4
Sam/Dan 4.25 17/4 9 2 5 1
Lance/Keri 5.50 22/4 3 4 9 6
Brian/Ericka 5.75 23/4 6 10 4 3
Maria/Tiffany 8.00 32/4 11 7 6 8
Mika/Canaan 8.00 32/4 10 8 7 7

Zev/Justin 6.00 24/4 2 5 8 9 (disqualified)
Marcy/Ron 7.67 23/3 4 9 10 (eliminated)
Garrett/Jessica 9.50 19/2 8 11 (eliminated)
Eric/Lisa 12.00 12/1 12 (eliminated)

Aver=Average Placement Pl/Legs=total placements divided by total legs; L1, L2, etc.= Placement by leg.


Edited by theschnauzers, Oct 12, 2009 @ 4:10 PM.


#222

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Posted Oct 18, 2009 @ 9:42 PM

After 5 legs:

Flight Time/Big Easy 2.8
Meghan/Cheyne 3
Gary/Matt 3.8
Sam/Dan 4.4
Brian/Ericka 5
Maria/Tiffany 7.6
Mika/Canaan 7.8

Lance/Keri 6
Zev/Justin 6
Marcy/Ron 7.67
Garrett/Jessica 9.5
Eric/Lisa 12

*Mika/Canaan and Maria/Tiffany, wow such luck. They haven't gone home yet although performing so poorly?
*The top 3 teams seems to be in a tight race. But with Brian/Ericka doing so well, things might change.

#223

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Posted Oct 22, 2009 @ 1:30 AM

myintermail, my numbers come out the same as yours do, but I like showing the teams' leg-by-leg placements because those show patterns of placement that add a layer of information in trying to decipher how teams are performing using ibjective numbers.

The way I read it, there is a clear demarcation between the teams that I think will make up the final 5, and the two teams I now expect will be eliminated next. Mika/Canaan have never finished higher than 7th, and Maria/Tiffany haven't finished higher than 6th. And with only 7 teams remaining, I think the odds favor Mika/Canaan going next, and then Maria/Tiffany.

The other 5 times have more or less been trading the top 5 places among themselves for the past four legs, but I will concede that Ericka/Brian had that 10th place finish in leg 2, and that might suggest they have the potential to frack it up in the next two legs.....but I don't think they will. This looks to be a very competitive field once we're down to five teams, perhaps the most competitive final five we've had in a long, long time.

#224

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Posted Oct 26, 2009 @ 1:28 AM

Leg 6:

Meghan/Cheyne 2.67 (1 6 2 5 1 1)
Flight Time/Big Easy 3.33 (5 3 1 2 3 6)
Gary/Matt 4 (7 1 3 4 4 5)
Sam/Dan 4.17 (9 2 5 1 5 3)
Brian/Ericka 4.83 (6 10 4 3 2 4)
Maria/Tiffany 6.67 (11 7 6 8 6 2)

Mika/Canaan 7.67 (10 8 7 7 7 7)
Lance/Keri 6 (3 4 9 6 8)
Zev/Justin 6 (2 5 8 9)
Marcy/Ron 7.67 (4 9 10)
Garrett/Jessica 9.5 (8 11)
Eric/Lisa 12.00 (12)

*Megan/Cheyne swap places with the Globetrotters.
*Brian/Ericka are inching in the pack. Maria/Tiffany have a huge leap, but still far away from the competition.

#225

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Posted Nov 1, 2009 @ 9:33 PM

Leg 7:

Meghan/Cheyne 2.57 (1 6 2 5 1 1 2)
Flight Time/Big Easy 3.28 (5 3 1 2 3 6 3)
Sam/Dan 3.71 (9 2 5 1 5 3 1)
Gary/Matt 4 (7 1 3 4 4 5 4)
Brian/Ericka 4.86 (6 10 4 3 2 4 5)

Maria/Tiffany 6.57 (11 7 6 8 6 2 6)
Mika/Canaan 7.67 (10 8 7 7 7 7)
Lance/Keri 6 (3 4 9 6 8)
Zev/Justin 6 (2 5 8 9)
Marcy/Ron 7.67 (4 9 10)
Garrett/Jessica 9.5 (8 11)
Eric/Lisa 12.00 (12)

*Sam/Dan overtakes Matt/Gary thanks to a 1st place finish
*Close competition for the top 5. I think Gary/Matt or Brian/Ericka might fall behind in the later legs.

#226

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Posted Nov 9, 2009 @ 7:29 PM

Leg 8:

Meghan/Cheyne 2.5 (1 6 2 5 1 1 2 2)
Flight Time/Big Easy 3 (5 3 1 2 3 6 3 1)
Sam/Dan 3.75 (9 2 5 1 5 3 1 4)
Gary/Matt 4.13 (7 1 3 4 4 5 4 5)
Brian/Ericka 4.63 (6 10 4 3 2 4 5 3)

Maria/Tiffany 6.57 (11 7 6 8 6 2 6)
Mika/Canaan 7.67 (10 8 7 7 7 7)
Lance/Keri 6 (3 4 9 6 8)
Zev/Justin 6 (2 5 8 9)
Marcy/Ron 7.67 (4 9 10)
Garrett/Jessica 9.5 (8 11)
Eric/Lisa 12.00 (12)

Edited by myintermail, Nov 9, 2009 @ 7:50 PM.


#227

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Posted Nov 16, 2009 @ 3:33 AM

Leg 9:

Meghan/Cheyne 2.33 (1 6 2 5 1 1 2 2 1)
Flight Time/Big Easy 3 (5 3 1 2 3 6 3 1 3)
Sam/Dan 3.56 (9 2 5 1 5 3 1 4 2)
Brian/Ericka 4.56 (6 10 4 3 2 4 5 3 4)

Gary/Matt 4.22 (7 1 3 4 4 5 4 5 5)
Maria/Tiffany 6.57 (11 7 6 8 6 2 6)
Mika/Canaan 7.67 (10 8 7 7 7 7)
Lance/Keri 6 (3 4 9 6 8)
Zev/Justin 6 (2 5 8 9)
Marcy/Ron 7.67 (4 9 10)
Garrett/Jessica 9.5 (8 11)
Eric/Lisa 12.00 (12)

#228

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Posted Nov 23, 2009 @ 3:27 AM

Leg 9:

Meghan/Cheyne 2.2 (1 6 2 5 1 1 2 2 1 1)
Flight Time/Big Easy 3 (5 3 1 2 3 6 3 1 3 3)
Sam/Dan 3.4 (9 2 5 1 5 3 1 4 2 2)
Brian/Ericka 4.5 (6 10 4 3 2 4 5 3 4 4)

Gary/Matt 4.22 (7 1 3 4 4 5 4 5 5)
Maria/Tiffany 6.57 (11 7 6 8 6 2 6)
Mika/Canaan 7.67 (10 8 7 7 7 7)
Lance/Keri 6 (3 4 9 6 8)
Zev/Justin 6 (2 5 8 9)
Marcy/Ron 7.67 (4 9 10)
Garrett/Jessica 9.5 (8 11)
Eric/Lisa 12.00 (12)

*Meghan/Cheynne is still leading for 5 weeks consecutively. Globetrotters seem to be plateaued in their performance. Doesn't look good for them to win.
*Brian/Erika may be on their way out of the running of top 3. But crazier things have happened before.

#229

theschnauzers

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Posted Nov 29, 2009 @ 11:59 PM

Meghan/Cheyne 2.09 23/11 1 6 2 5 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
Sam/Dan 3.27 36/11 9 2 5 1 5 3 1 4 2 2 2
Brian/Ericka 4.44 48/11 6 10 4 3 2 4 5 3 4 4 3

With six wins in the first 11 legs, I'd say Meghan and Cheyne are odds=on favorites to win. Dan/Sam with two firsts and four seconds, to place, and Brian/Ericka with no wins to show 3rd place.

Edited by theschnauzers, Nov 30, 2009 @ 12:00 AM.


#230

myintermail

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Posted Dec 7, 2009 @ 4:36 AM

Final Standings
1. Meghan/Cheyne 2 (1 6 2 5 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1)
2. Flight Time/Big Easy 3.09 (5 3 1 2 3 6 3 1 3 3 4) - 4th place
3. Sam/Dan 3.17 (9 2 5 1 5 3 1 4 2 2 2 2) - 2nd place
4. Gary/Matt 4.22 (7 1 3 4 4 5 4 5 5) - 5th place
5. Brian/Ericka 4.25 (6 10 4 3 2 4 5 3 4 4 3 3) - 3rd place
6. Lance/Keri 6 (3 4 9 6 8) - 8th place
7. Zev/Justin 6 (2 5 8 9) - 9th place
8. Maria/Tiffany 6.57 (11 7 6 8 6 2 6) - 6th place
9. Mika/Canaan 7.67 (10 8 7 7 7 7) - 7th place
10. Marcy/Ron 7.67 (4 9 10)
11. Garrett/Jessica 9.5 (8 11)
12. Eric/Lisa 12.00 (12)

So Meghan and Cheyne are the best performers in terms of winners?

#231

theschnauzers

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Posted Dec 7, 2009 @ 5:22 PM

Second best to date among all teams in all seasons (to Eric/Jeremy in season 9) and displacing TAR 14's Tammy anf Victor as the best performing winners.

#232

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Posted Mar 1, 2010 @ 5:33 AM

Season 16, as of leg 3:

Jet/Cord 1.67 (3 1 1)
Joe/Heidi 3.67 (5 2 4)
Jordan/Jeff 4 (1 6 5)
Carol/Brandy 4 (6 3 3)
Stevie/Allie 4.33 (4 7 2)
Brent/Caite 6 (7 4 7)
Dan/Jordan 7.33 (8 8 6)
Louie/Michael 8.67 (9 9 8)

Monique/Shawne 5.33 (2 5 9)
Jodie/Shannon 10 (10 10)
Dana/Adrian 11 (11)

*Jet/Cord are way in the lead
*Surprised how Louie/Micheal and Dan/Jordan did so poorly. Stevie/Allie did better than I thought.

#233

theschnauzers

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Posted Mar 3, 2010 @ 10:25 PM

I've moved on elsewhere on tracking this. So have fun, myintermail, (And yes, Jet/Cord if they maintained their current average (taken out to thousandth of a placement, just fractionally ahead at the moment of Eric/Jeremy's season long average.)

#234

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Posted Mar 7, 2010 @ 10:45 PM

Leg 4:

Jet/Cord 2.25 (3 1 1 4)
Joe/Heidi 3.5 (5 2 4 3)
Stevie/Allie 4 (4 7 2 2)
Carol/Brandy 4.25 (6 3 3 5)
Jordan/Jeff 5 (1 6 5 8)
Brent/Caite 6.25 (7 4 7 7)
Louie/Michael 6.75 (9 9 8 1)
Dan/Jordan 7 (8 8 6 6)

Monique/Shawne 5.33 (2 5 9)
Jodie/Shannon 10 (10 10)
Dana/Adrian 11 (11)

From the looks of it, Brent/Caite and Dan/Jordan aren't going to last very long. The performances of Jeff/Jordan and Louie/Michael are so erratic.

#235

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Posted Dec 10, 2010 @ 2:32 PM

Resurrecting some analysis software I wrote several seasons ago, I've looked at the current season to see what (if anything) we can determine from team performance.

My premise is that your numerical position in any leg is less suggestive of performance than is the number of other teams you actually beat to get that position. For example, placing 3rd in the last leg is easy since there are only three teams, and anybody can come last in a leg. Whereas coming 3rd in the first leg is more difficult, because in order to place 3rd you actually have to out-race eight other teams (assuming a starting field of eleven). Therefore a 3rd place in the first leg should be worth 8 points (8 teams beaten) whereas a 3rd place in the final leg is worth zero points (no teams beaten). Since all races have not had the same number of legs, the total is then adjusted to give a 100-leg race equivalent score.

Here is the score as calculate for Season 17, up to the penultimate leg. The fields shown are:
  • Team ranking:
  • Team member names
  • (Season)
  • Total teams beaten
  • Adjusted to 100-leg equivalent
  • Legs run

Season 17:

1: Jill & Thomas (17) 47 427 11
2: Brook & Claire (17) 44 400 11
2: Nat & Kat (17) 44 400 11
4: Gary & Mallory (17) 30 272 8
5: Chad & Stephanie (17) 26 236 9
6: Michael & Kevin (17) 24 218 7
7: Nick & Vicki (17) 22 200 11
8: Katie & Rachel (17) 20 181 5
8: Connor & Jonathan (17) 20 181 4
10: Andie & Jenna (17) 2 18 2
11: Ron & Tony (17) 0 0 1

Note the score of the three remaining teams -- after 11 legs, Jill & Thomas have a total score of 427, whereas the two F/F teams are neck and neck at 400. Of course, this doesn't actually prove or predict anything, but it does show that in at least one sense that J&T have run a better race overall, than the two F/F teams, who have been pretty evenly matched.

As a matter of interest, the following teams are the only teams in history (excluding Season 8) to reach or exceed 400 points:

1: Meghan & Cheyne (15) 60 500 12
2: Kris & Jon ( 6) 55 458 12
3: Eric & Jeremy ( 9) 54 450 12
4: Jill & Thomas (17) 47 427 11
5: Tyler & James (10) 51 425 12
5: Tammy & Victor (14) 51 425 12
7: Nick & Starr (13) 46 418 11
8: Jet & Cord (16) 50 416 12
9: Ken & Tina (13) 45 409 11
10: Flo & Zach ( 3) 53 407 13
10: Ken & Gerard ( 3) 53 407 13
12: Brook & Claire (17) 44 400 11
12: Nat & Kat (17) 44 400 11
14: Colin & Christie ( 5) 52 400 13
15: Rob & Amber ( 7) 48 400 12