234 replies to this topic

[erik316wttn]

(posted by mtvcdm who was an idiot by not logging his brother out)
Someone has to get the ball rolling, and it might as well be the defending champ. As was last year, I'll be using a deck of standard playing cards. This season we'll be using a deck sponsored by Pepsi and made by the U.S. Playing Card Co. in Cincinnati, Ohio. For this first post, I'll make an overall prediction, and the follow-up will be for the first leg only. The team deemed to be last in the overall will not be dealt into the first-leg predictions, as they will have already been predicted to finish last in that leg by virtue of being the first team eliminated.

For the early legs I'll shuffle the deck thoroughly, and deal 5 cards to a team. We'll go until all 10 teams (remember, only 10 teams get dealt into the leg 1 predictions) have cards. There will be no need to reshuffle except for the overall.

Will edit soon with the overall predictions; just need the thread made so nobody doubles up.

Edited by erik316wttn, Jun 9, 2004 @ 12:10 PM.

[mtvcdm]

Okay, so maybe I can't edit what is technically my brother's post. Sorry about that. Moving right along... overall predictions. 5 cards per team (complete with some of my own nicknames), reshuffled after each deal.

Bob and Joyce-- Team ARF (Abort, Retry, Fail?)-- 2, 7, 8 of diamonds, Jack, 10 of clubs. Jack high with 10 kicker. They'll have some decent game plans, but incomplete and seperate from each other. It'll be a short race.
Kami and Karli-- Team Princess-- 2, 6 of hearts, 5, Queen of clubs, Jack of diamonds. Queen high with Jack kicker. They've got nothing going for them either, and it'll be a short race for them as well, but not quite AS short. At least they know each other.
Chip and Kim-- 9 of hearts, 6 of diamonds, 5, 10 of clubs, 6 of spades. Pair of 6's. They're 4-suited, meaning they're going to be pretty disorganized, and no face cards means they're not going to have too much going for them, but the pair signifies a Fast Forward use at some point and they'll scrape together a good finish.
Colin and Christie-- 6, 8 of hearts, 7, 9 of spades, King of clubs. King high with 9 kicker. They have an outside straight draw going here, but the King screws it up, meaning at some point they're going to try what they think is a big, race-winning scheme, but they get too greedy and blow it, leading to Philimination. I envision a big Fast Forward lead like the Italy-to-India FF from the first race, followed by some sort of rule breaking to gain further time, leading to a) the loss of the FF lead due to bunching, and b) loss of race due to the penalty.
Jim and Marsha-- Team Rah-- Ace, Jack of spades, 8 of diamonds, 10 of hearts, King of clubs. Ace high, king kicker. A missed inside straight indicates that there’ll be a clear way to stay near the front, but they won’t be able to put the pieces together. With such low overall hands, though, an ace high is still pretty good.
Dennis and Erika-- Team Jackass (c'mon. Naked skydiving?)-- 8, 6 of hearts,Ace, 6 of diamonds, 3 of spades. Pair of 6's. Another pair of 6's. Get good and familiar with these guys and Chip/Kim. They'll be here a while.
Karen and Linda-- Team Gutter-- 8, 7 of hearts, Ace, 3, 7 of spades. Pair of 7's. Shock of shocks! This'll be the one that either makes me look like Nostradamus or Miss Cleo.
Charla and Mirna-- I got nothing that's not gonna get me banned-- 2, 4 of spades, Queen of clubs, Jack, 7 of hearts. Queen high with Jack kicker. Nothing spectacular here. This looks like a team that'll be remembered solely because it has a midget on it.
Brandon and Nicole--Team Duckie (as in, rubber duckie, you're the one/ you make bath time lotsa fun) 9, 3 of clubs, 2, 3 of diamonds, 4 of spades. Pair of 3's. A decent finish, but the pair of 3's suggests it'll mainly be due to a well-timed Fast Forward.
Alison and Donny-- Team Famewhore-- You'll hate me for this, but... Ace, 7 of hearts, 10 of diamonds, Ace of clubs, Ace of spades. Three Aces. Alison and Donny, you are the winners of the Amazing Race. And I begin to weep.
Marshall and Lance-- 9 of hearts, Queen, 3, 5 of spades, 2 of diamonds. Queen high with 9 kicker. They won't get too far without a Fast Forward (queen), which will maybe buy them 2 or 3 rounds total tops.

Summing up:
1. Alison and Donny (3 aces)
2. Karen and Linda (pair of 7's)
3. Dennis and Erika (pair of 6's, Ace kicker)
4. Chip and Kim (pair of 6's, 10 kicker)
5. Brandon and Nicole (pair of 3's)
6. Jim and Marsha (Ace high, King kicker)
7. Colin and Christie (King high, 9 kicker)
8. Charla and Mirna (Queen high, Jack/7 kicker)
9. Kami and Karli (Queen high, Jack/6 kicker)
10. Marshall and Lance (Queen high, 9 kicker)
11. Bob and Joyce (Jack high, 10 kicker)

Coming as soon as I can, the leg 1 predictions (Bob and Joyce will not be dealt in, as they're last overall and, thus, last in the first leg).

[mtvcdm]

(Double posted because I choose not to risk running out of room in the first post. Miss Alli's gonna LOVE me after this.)Okay, time to do the leg 1 hands. As already stated, since Bob/Joyce were predicted to be last overall, it would follow that they're last in this, the first leg. So we won't deal them in because then I only need 50 cards, and won't have to reshuffle after each hand. (We won't do this for future legs.) Let us proceed:

You're team number one: Dennis and Erika: 4, 9 of clubs, 9 of hearts, 5 of diamonds, 5 of spades. 9's over 5's. A roaring start to what should be a heck of a race for these two. The FF may or may not be used.
You're team number two: Charla and Mirna: Ace, 3, 8 of diamonds, 3 of spades, 8 of hearts. 8's over 3's. We're going to be cheering for these two as they make a strong finish. They'll be on Dennis and Erika's heels all leg.
You're team number three: Alison and Donny: 7, Jack, 2 of hearts, 2 of clubs, 7 of spades. 7's over 2's. And THEY'LL be hot on Charla and Mirna's heels. Boo.
You're team number four: Kami and Karli: Ace, 3 of hearts, King of diamonds, King of clubs, 2 of spades. Pair of kings. A very nice hand to start out. They've obviously caught the American Express flight.
You're team number five: Chip and Kim: Queen, Jack, 9, 10 of spades, Queen of clubs. Pair of queens. So, so close to a straight flush, but come up a bit short. The queen's a nice consolation prize at this early stage, however.
You're team number six: Brandon and Nicole: 10, 4 of hearts, 5 of clubs, 6 of spades, 10 of diamonds. Pair of 10's. Two different agendas here-- a straight going and a group of 10's. Brandon and Nicole will have some rifts growing between them as this race wears on, but for now, a respectable showing.
You're team number seven: Marshall and Lance: 4, 7, 9 of diamonds, 8, 4 of spades. Pair of 4's. A meh hand. Not great, but not terrible. We'll have to wait for the second leg to hear anything out of them.
You're team number eight: Jim and Marsha: 6, Queen of hearts, Ace, King of spades, 3 of clubs. Ace high with King kicker. Another lower-tier, but uneventful leg. Won't hear much from them in the episode.
You're team number nine: Karen and Linda: Ace, Jack, 8, 6 of clubs, 5 of hearts. Ace high with Jack kicker. A stressful leg, but they'll get through okay.
You're team number ten: Colin and Christie: 6, 2 of diamonds, 10, 7 of clubs, King of hearts. King high with 10 kicker. They'll have to settle for "another courier", normally they'd be fine, but here it'll earn them a scare. Bob and Joyce come in behind them.
You're the last team to arrive. you've both been eliminated from the race: Bob and Joyce. As opposed to just Bob going to Sequesterville and Joyce continuing by herself.

Take, discuss, scoff, make your own.

Edited by mtvcdm, Jun 9, 2004 @ 5:49 PM.

[Mama Tiger]

The cards lie! LIE, I tell you! Team HATE winning the Race? And you thought Miss Alli's head would explode over Rupert?????

[Lingo]

Yay! This is always fun to read.

I'll probably just be reading, not participating this year. At least not until I get a job. Besides, I don't even know where my cards are!

[Mercury]

I'll be joining in soon again, as soon as I get the time to read through the racers bios and whip out the runes. I can't wait!

[SVNBob]

The dice will be rolling soon too. And we really do need to have a psychics and predictors table at TARCon5.

[Frenchteacher]

Using my fancy Guinness deck, this is what I get:

OVERALL:
1. Brandon/Nicole 3 fours, king, 8
2. Charla/Mirna 2 aces, 2 twos, 8
3. Kami/Karli 2 queens, 10, 8, 6
4. Alison/Donny 2 jacks, king, 3, 2
5. Linda/Karen 2 sevens, Ace, 10, 4
6. Chip/Kim 2 sixes, king, 10, five
7. Dennis/Erika 2 threes, queen, 9, 5
8. Marshall/Lance 2 twos, king, jack, 3
9. Jim/Marsha king, 10, 9, 8, 5
10. Bob/Joyce jack, 10, 9, 8, 6
11. Colin/Christie jack, 7, 6, 5, 4

FIRST LEG:
1. Charla/Mirna 2 kings, 2 eights, ace
2. Bob/Joyce 2 nines, 2 threes, 10 (Took fast forward, maybe?)
3. Alison/Donny 2 fives, 2 twos, 4
4. Chip/Kim 2 queens, ace, king, 8
5. Kami/Karli 2 jacks, king, 10, 6
6. Brandon/Nicole 2 sevens, ace, 10, 5
7. Jim/Marsha 2 threes, queen, 7, 2
8. Marshall/Lance ace, 10, 7, 6, 5
9. Dennis/Erika queen, jack, 9, 6, 2
10. Linda/Karen jack, 9, 8, 6, 4
11. Colin/Christie (Not dealt)

[Mercury]

Alright, time to step up to bat yet again. I hope I don't strike out like last year, where I predicted Amanda and Chris would take it all. Oy. I had to wipe the dust off my runes, it's been that long since I've touched them. An overview if you need to know what on earth I'm talking about.

Overall Predictions:

1. Dennis/Erika: Sowilo, Wunjo, Dagaz: They have a lot of success in the race, though it comes at the sacrifice of happiness at times. Dagaz seems to indicate completion of the race, hope and stability, so they’re my pick to win.

2. Jim/Marsha: Ehwaz, Fehu (inverted), Eihwaz: They kick butt at the travelling aspects, and have a great relationship which will help them. The last two runes together seem to show that they complete the race, but come just short of winning.

3. Chip/Kim: Perth, Berkana, Jera: They’re consistent and hard-working, but I don’t think it’ll help them win, though they will complete the race.

4. Charla/Mirna: Othila (inverted), Fehu, Wunjo: They have a tough first few legs trying to keep up with the other teams physically, but the last two runes show that they’ll do well and be happy with how they finished.

5. Brandon/Nicole: Mannaz (inverted), Kenaz, Odin (blank): Off the bat they have issues communicating with each other and getting along with the other teams. Their problems in their relationship could help them though, since Odin usually has favourable but unknown outcomes. I’d place them possibly as high as 3rd or 4th place, and no lower than 6th.

6. Colin/Christie: Isa, Ansuz, Perth: They have a rough start as well, probably due to issues in their relationship. Once they work those out, or learn to deal with them (ala Kelly/Jon) they do ok.

7. Marshall/Lance: Ansuz (inverted), Thurisaz (inverted), Jera: These guys aren’t very good racers but somehow manage to barely hang on for way too many episodes. The first two runes together indicate they might have some nasty personalities that will alienate other teams.

8. Linda/Karen: Sowilo, Hagalaz, Perth (inverted): At first they seem like a force to be reckoned with, but they have a big setback around the 2nd or 3rd leg which they can never recover from.

9. Alison/Donny: Mannaz (inverted), Uruz, Wunjo (inverted): Woo! A low finish for these guys. They start off the race playing it like they were still on Big Brother, trying to scheme and manipulate others. Their physical strength keeps them in the race longer than they should be, and they definitely aren’t happy about being eliminated early.

10. Kami/Karli: Wunjo, Othila (inverted), Perth (inverted): They start with good team spirit and harmony, but they just can’t get things going. They’re the victims of some bad luck or maybe karma for something they did early on.

11. Bob/Joyce: Nauthiz (inverted), Kenaz (inverted), Perth (inverted): They have trouble keeping up physically, are disillusioned early and never recover. They don’t seem cut out for the race at all.

First Leg predictions: (which of course don't exactly match up with my overall predictions)

Looks like some of the people hit an early snag (Thurisaz inverted), maybe they were on the last flight or last bus going somewhere. Charla and Mirna kick butt and Marshall/Lance and Kami/Karli get my favourite rune for TAR meaning, Laguz inverted, which means bad decisions, confusion and running around in circles. Awesome.

1. Charla/Mirna: Teiwaz, Sowilo, Mannaz
2. Brandon/Nicole: Wunjo (inverted), Eihwaz, Jera
3. Dennis/Erika: Thurisaz (inverted), Perth, Jera
4. Alison/Donny: Thurisaz (inverted), Nauthiz (inverted), Berkana
5. Chip/Kim: Mannaz (inverted), Wunjo, Isa
6. Colin/Christie: Gebo, Dagaz, Perth (inverted)
7. Bob/Joyce: Thurisaz (inverted), Ansuz (inverted), Wunjo
8. Linda/Karen: Kenaz (inverted), Raidho (inverted), Jera
9. Jim/Marsha: Isa, Ehwaz (inverted), Berkana (inverted)
10. Marshall/Lance: Thurisaz (inverted), Dagaz, Laguz (inverted)
11. Kami/Karli: Raidho (inverted), Eihwaz, Laguz (inverted)

Most likely to take the fast forward: Alison/Donny (2nd choice: Bob/Joyce)

[Red Bubbles]

Oooh, lookie me! I did a tarot card reading.

[Bart Ender]

Howdy, folks! This here’s Bart Ender, and I’m your trail guide through another season of Amazing Race predictions from the Oregon Trail.

Now let me show you greenhorns out there how things work. When I was a youngin’ I used to curl up next to an old Apple computer in school, and we would play all sorts of games, but one of my favorites was The Oregon Trail. Now that I’m all growed up, I got me a copy of this fine computer game for my own use. I start the racers out on the trail with lots of stuff, but I only feed ‘em bare bones rations, and I push ‘em at a grueling pace. Them racers can’t handle it, so they die. And die. And die. I write down where they die (and what they die of, just for grins), and use that to figure out the order which I reckon they’ll finish. I always put Phil as the pappa in the family, because in the game the pappa doesn’t die unless everyone else dies, and it ain’t fair to the other travelers for one of them to get an advantage by playin’ pappa—even if it is only when the camera’s ain’t rollin’.

Now I reckon I’ll start things off this season with an overall prediction. I started playin’ along late in the game last year, so I didn’t get a chance to do this. I had each of the team members gallivantin’ along individually, then I used me my college edumication to add up the miles traveled for each one, and there you go, the overall order for the race.

Eleventh Place
Dennis: 453 Miles (Broken Leg)
Erika: 697 Miles (Broken Leg)
Total: 1140 Miles

Tenth Place
Bob: 293 Miles (Broken Arm)
Joyce: 1043 Miles (Broken Arm/Exhaustion)
Total: 1336 Miles

Ninth Place
Allison: 932 Miles (Broken Leg)
Donny: 640 Miles (Broken Leg)
Total: 1572 Miles

Eighth Place
Chip: 1144 Miles (Snakebite)
Kim: 657 Miles (Snakebite)
Total: 1807 Miles

Seventh Place
Jim: 1217 Miles (Broken Arm)
Marsha: 809 Miles (Dysentary)
Total: 2026 Miles

Sixth Place
Marshall: 1289 Miles (Snakebite)
Lance: 830 Miles (Snakebite)
Total: 2119 Miles

Fifth Place
Colin: 595 Miles (Snakebite)
Christie: 1708 Miles (Dysentery)
Total: 2303 Miles

Fourth Place
Charla: 606 Miles (Measles)
Mirna: 1752 Miles (Exhaustion)
Total: 2358 Miles

Third Place
Linda: 625 Miles (Exhaustion)
Karen: 1832 Miles (Broken Leg)
Total: 2457 Miles

Second Place
Brandon: 1011 Miles (Measles)
Nicole: 1646 Miles (Snakebite)
Total: 2657 Miles

TAR 5 WINNERS
Kami: 1050 Miles (Exhaustion)
Karli: 1863 Miles (Snakebite)
Total: 2913 Miles

I reckon I’ll post the week one standings in a spell.

ETA: I reckon I'll spell reckon correctly from now on. Thanks.

ETAA : Spelling was not my top subject in school.

Edited by Bart Ender, Jun 19, 2004 @ 11:48 PM.

[Lingo]

It's spelled "reckon". "Recon" is short for "reconnaissance", I think. ;)
Normally I wouldn't nitpick but that was bugging the crap out of me.

[mtvcdm]

Charla and Brandon died of measles? Jeepers. Preschool diseases were rougher back then.

[Mama Tiger]

As long as we're picking on spelling, it's "dysentery," not "dysentary."

And if Brandon & Nicole make it to 2nd place, I think I may have choked on my own vomit by that point, so you can count me as one of the bodies strewn along the trail!

[Frenchteacher]

I always got cholera when I played Oregon Trail. I mean, I got cholera in the game, not in real life.

[SVNBob]

Hear that rumbling? No, it's not thunder. It's the sound of rolling dice. That means it's once again time for Yahtzee TAR Predictions! Standard Yahtzee rules apply to the rolling, and the strikeouts indicate what was re-rolled.

These predictions are for overall outcome only. I'll do a Leg One roll close to premire date.

Alison/Donny: 11[s]3[/s]55, 11[s]3[/s]55, 11455. Chance, 16 points. Chance always varies by the resulting point total. This one was a negative roll in prior predictions. No change here. 10th place

Bob/Joyce: 11[s]246[/s], 111[s]45[/s], 11115. 4 of a kind, 9 points. This is a traditional good sign. Top 3

Brandon/Nicole: 22[s]346[/s], 2255[s]6[/s], 22445. Chance, 18 points. This Chance roll is a good sign. Not the greatest, but still good. 5th place

Charla/Mirna: [s]2[/s]333[s]6[/s], 333[s]46[/s], 13333. 4 of a kind, 13 points. Again, a good omen. Top 3

Colin/Christie: 234[s]4[/s]5, [s]2[/s]2345, 23345. Small Straight, 30 points. This roll is primarily neutral. Also, each of the 3 rolls was the same straight, but with different kickers. I put them at a dead-center finish. 6th place.

Chip/Kim: 12[s]4[/s]45, [s]12[/s]456, 24456. Chance, 21 points. This particular Chance has never come up before. But it's in a turning position on the range of Chances. Neutral for now. 7th place

Dennis/Erika: 12[s]4[/s]45, 12[s]2[/s]45, 12245. Chance, 14 points. This Chance has come up before...and it's bad. A very negative indicator. 11th place.

Jim/Marsha: 12[s]2[/s]45, 12[s]2[/s]45, 12345. Large Straight, 40 points.
Kami/Karli: 1234[s]6[/s], 12[s]3[/s]34, 12345. Large Straight, 40 points.
I put these 2 teams together because they got the exact same result, but the twins held a Small Straight the entire time. The Small is better than the Large in this case, but both ended negatively. Jim/Marsha: 9th place.
Kami/Karli: 8th place

Linda/Karen: 222[s]36[/s], 2222[s]4[/s], 22222. Yahtzee, 50 points! This is the first time that I've rolled a Yahtzee for a TAR prediction. I don't know for sure what it means, but it has to be good. Top 3

Marshall/Lance: [s]12[/s]333, [s]1[/s]333[s]4[/s], 22333. Full House, 25 points. A good omen as 3rd roll result. 4th place

Like I said above, this was overall performance. Leg One predicition to come sometime next week.

Edited by SVNBob, Jun 26, 2004 @ 4:14 AM.

[Lingo]

Man, if that's how the Race actually turns out, I'll have died and gone to heaven.

[Rabrab]

SVNBob How do you determine what's a good "chance" roll and what's a bad one?

I'm just curious.

[SVNBob]

Rabrab, short answer: TAR4.

Anyone interested in more detail, read on. Otherwise go ahead and skip to the next post.

Anyway, at the end of TAR4, I compiled my predictions and looked at the prevailing trends. To determine polarity for all rolls, I looked at the position a team was in at the beginning and end of the Leg. A move up showed a positive roll, and a fall in standings indicated a negative roll.

For example, the 14 point Chance I got for Dennis/Erika is a negative roll because the last team to get that roll slipped 8 positions in the Leg that that roll came up. That's why I called that a very bad omen and called them first out.

[Rabrab]

OK, that makes sense. I just wondered, because a 14-point and 16-point chance was bad, 18-point was good, and 21 was neutral, so I wasn't sure how the totals were ranked. Thanks for the explanantion.

[Bart Ender]

Unfortunately, I just got back into town and I won't have a chance to redo my predictions for the order of finish for tonight.

But Happy TARSday to one and all.

[Lingo]

Anybody seen Pope Buck since last summer?? :-S

[Rabrab]

Nope. He's dropped out of sight. Not answering e-mails, either.

[mtvcdm]

I? Sucked. My first came in last, my last came in fourth... I'd have done better if I switched my Leg 1 and my overalls. At least I have underwear on. (rimshot)

Brush myself off, try it again. I have the World Series of Poker on for luck. For Leg 2 onward, we'll use the same 52-card set for all 10 teams. No cards will repeat.

You're team number one: Kami/Karli: Ace, 6 of diamonds, Ace, Jack of spades, 9 of hearts. Pair of aces. Not only that, they've got blackjack. (rimshot) Stop it. I don't need a bandleader.
You're team number two: Bob/Joyce: King, 7 of clubs, Queen of hearts, King of diamonds, 5 of spades. Pair of kings. Okay. Fine then. Don't get eliminated first. See if I care... eeeeaaaaAAAAGH I HATE YOU I HATE YOU TAKE A DETOUR TO PAMPLONA AND GET TRAMPLED BY BULLS DAMMIT! Okay. I'm better.
You're team number three: Brandon/Nicole: 8, 5 of clubs, 9, 2 of spades, 8 of diamonds. Pair of 8's. That red 8 was the last card dealt, and if they wouldn't have gotten that, it's highly likely their hand would have been among the worst I've ever dealt. They must get lucky on the way to the Pit Stop.
You're team number four: Alison/Donny: Queen, 4 of spades, 7, 4 of hearts, Jack of diamonds. Pair of 4's. A halfway good hand for hopefully a redeemed famewhore.
You're team number five: Jim/Marsha: 3, 2 of diamonds, 6, 4 of spades, 4 of clubs. Pair of 3's. You know they needed a 5, but there weren't any left in the deck by the time they came up to the table. They got seriously lucky with a pair, because otherwise Team Wounded Knee would be headed for the glue factory.
You're team number six: Linda/Karen: Ace, 10, 2 of hearts, Queen of diamonds, King of spades. Ace high with king kicker. With no pair, this is as good as they could hope for. It's not coming in first; it's just not coming in last.
You're team number seven: Charla/Mirna: Ace, 3 of clubs, 10 of diamonds, 7 of spades, 6 of hearts. Ace high with 10 kicker. Owie. It's a bad hand, but in this case, not fatal. Good thing they've got an ace up their sleeve. (rimshot) (bandleadershot) Jeepers.
You're team number eight: Colin/Christie: King, Jack, 3 of hearts, 6, 2 of clubs. King high with jack kicker. It's really not their fault, as they were the last team to get their hand and the remaining two cards were the 10 of clubs and 8 of spades. Getting that king (the jack helped, too) was critical to survival. They made do with what they had.
You're team number nine: Chip/Kim: Queen, 9 of clubs, 5, 4 of diamonds, 10 of spades. Queen high with 10 kicker. Looks like they'll make another idiot blunder. But it won't cost them the race. Again.
You're the last team to arrive. You've both been eliminated from the race: Marshall/Lance: 8, 5 of hearts, 9, 7 of diamonds, Jack of clubs. Jack high with 9 kicker. They needed a 6 here, and there were still 3 in the deck when it came their turn. Golden opportunity and they blew it. See you in Sequesterville.

[SVNBob]

Wow...I got that one right. I'm stunned.

[Lingo]

Yeah, congrats to SVNBob and Bart Ender for nailing Dennis and Erika! Very impressive!

And, um, a rose of condolences for Mercury. (snicker)

[Mercury]

Man, I don't even deserve that for predicting Dennis and Erika would come in first overall. That's worse than my Amanda/Chris first place prediction last season! Sigh.

[mtvcdm]

Heck, they were my bronze medalists. But yea, Mercury... sorry about that. Ouch.

[sweetsoul]

Where are all the [a]muses for tonight's predictions? How can I fill out my poll questions without you? Does everyone have measles from the Oregon Trail? : ) Thanks for all the fun!