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The Grassy Knoll: Conspiracy Theories (SPOILERS)


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#9391

TWoP Bayliss

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Posted Feb 3, 2008 @ 6:02 PM

Hey, guys. I added "(SPOILER)" to the thread title, in case it wasn't obvious. There's no change to the rules or what you guys have been doing -- it's just because some users have been confused about what's allowed in this thread.

(It also means that we don't need any spoiler tags in this thread, obviously.)
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#9392

Jumelle

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Posted Feb 3, 2008 @ 6:23 PM

From what I've seen, including the commercial just run before the Super Bowl, they're going for an "improved" version of the current Idol top-sellers. More cookie-cutter Kelly Clarkson, not as stiff Carrie Underwood, not as glaring Chris Daughtry and not as dorky Clay Aiken. I'm seeing a lot of eye-candy & "kids" who are comfortable performing on stage. There are a few non-traditional types thrown in there to mix it up, but I'd imagine they're mostly expected to be cannon fodder. If someone different does make it into the finals, it will be interesting to see how TPTB react.

Edited by Jumelle, Feb 3, 2008 @ 6:24 PM.

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#9393

Occasional Hope

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Posted Feb 3, 2008 @ 7:38 PM

I think what they're planning for thsi season is a showdown between the seasoned pros getting a second chance (Kristy Lee, Michael Johns, Carly Smithson) and the Teens (scary numbers of them). Not that many of the top 24 don't fit one or the other category AFAICS, and I suspect those might be designated cannon fodder. My bet is tht the final two will be one from each of the aforementioned categories. I suspect they don't necessarily have a specific chosen one in each category yet, but may be waiting to see who catches on. David Archuleta might fit into both groups at once, with his Star Search fame?
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#9394

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Posted Feb 3, 2008 @ 7:41 PM

There are a few non-traditional types thrown in there to mix it up, but I'd imagine they're mostly expected to be cannon fodder.

Wasn't one of the producer, Nigel perhaps, quoted as saying basically there would be no cannon fodder, like Sanjaya last year, this year?
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#9395

Nova

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Posted Feb 3, 2008 @ 11:59 PM

I think he meant no one that sucks egregiously, not that they'd necessarily all have the same chance.
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#9396

dismantled

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Posted Feb 4, 2008 @ 2:52 PM

Early in the season, in contrast, I don't think the producers had a CO. They seemed to have grown complacent with success and were more interested in pimping the celebrity guests and Idol Gives Back. Jordin was barely on the radar. Later on, the producers seemed to wake up and did their best to push Jordin.

Not to bring up 'ancient' history, but there's an alternative theory that Jordin was a producer choice, possibly TCO, from very early on. As early as auditions. This was posted here by Zsus during S6:

This was posted in the Auditions Thread on February 1 by Tallulahbaby (on page 242). I thought it was time to bring it over, now that it seems to be proving to be true:

Im not sure were this would go...Im guessing in this area!
Anyhoo, My husband's co-worker 16 year old daughter made it all the way to the green mile. She got sent home and her dad is now back at work. My husband came home this morning with a headache saying he now knows everything and anything about Idol.
Apperantly Jordan Sparks from Seattle is the favorite to win. She tried out in LA didnt make it, Enters an Idol like contest in Arizona, (sponsored by FOX) wins, then AI has her flown to Seattle where she makes it. Now my husbands co-worker said alot of really good 16 and 17 year olds that were in competition with Jordan were eliminated, included his daughter. He said people were so shocked that all these good singers were sent home. I thought this was all pretty interesting to share.

Grain of salt, but given the way Jordin came through the process - having won an earlier Idol-sponsored contest, straight to the judges with no mass audition after initially being rejected in LA - she was at least on the producer radar screen from very early on. Regardless, I don't think Melinda was ever TCO ... I think Simon liked her in spite of his own commercial instincts, and endorsed her on his own, independent of what Nigel & Co. wanted.

[Slightly OT: In hindsight I actually do think it was better that Melinda not face the pressure to be an instant commercial success the way Jordin and Blake have. The 19 machine is not a good fit for her. She appears to have connected with some quality producers and is on her way to working out a deal that works for her.]

What I'm curious to see is whether S6 marked a point of no return for AI; that the ball began rolling downhill and there's nothing they can do to stop it. I think the producers are desperate to capture lightning in a bottle again this time around, and find a winner who'll go on to Kelly/Carrie type of success. I don't know that a non-winner achieving success a la JHud/Daughtry will cut it for them this time around. I haven't followed the audition episodes, but I'm betting they're going to try even harder to stack the odds in their favor for the Top 24. No obvious 'non-commercial' or 'old-fashioned' singers like Melinda this year, no matter how talented they may be.
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#9397

Februarylover80

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Posted Feb 4, 2008 @ 3:11 PM

I know I was on here a couple of weeks ago saying how I thought a young white male would probably win AI 7, but now I'm not so sure. It looks like they really might want another female to win after all. Needless to say, I skipped most of the auditions thus far, but it looks like the Hollywood round shows may be pretty good. I saw I preview for them last night and I was somewhat intrigued by what I saw. It seems like a lot of effort was put in to make the Hollywood round shows better than last year. Oh and as boring as most of this season's contestants have been to me thus far, one thing that I think may get me to start tuning in again is knowing that we may not be hearing the contestants sing the same old AI standards this year. Call me crazy, but these females and males seem like the types that may actually take risks once the performance rounds start. That right there is making me interested in tuning in again and seeing how some of the contestants grow as artists once the performance rounds start.
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#9398

Lucy75

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Posted Feb 4, 2008 @ 7:34 PM

That post about the person who knew Jordin was the chosen one may or not be coincidence but I do believe she was TCO early on.
The chosen one always sings last on top 12 night. The person who always sang last(except for Nikko in season 4) is either the winner, runner up, or shocking boot.
Season 1 - Tamyra sang last - shocking boot
Season 2 - Ruben sang last - winner
Season 3 - Diana sang last- runner up. Some may argue she wasn't a chosen one but I definitely think she was the producers pick to be up there with Fantasia and Latoya. Think how many times she performed last. 2 weeks in a row she did also.
Season 4 - Doesn't really count because it was about Nikko coming back because Mario dropped out. Although I think that whole thing was a publicity stunt. I remember Paula saying to Nikko top 16 night that the top 12 wouldn't be the same without him and then BAM Mario supposedly drops out and then he is in the top 12.
Season 5 - Chris sang last - shocking boot
Season 6 - Jordin sang last - winner

I know it is old news but did anyone else believe that Mario Vasquez was a ringer hired to compete and then "drop out"?

Edited by Lucy75, Feb 4, 2008 @ 7:35 PM.

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#9399

Sumi

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Posted Feb 4, 2008 @ 8:50 PM

There was a lot of speculation during the semifinals that Sabrina Sloan was TCO and was supposed to have a Kelly Clarkson-like entrance from unknown to contender. After she was eliminated, I think that they switched to Jordin, hence her slot in the first round of the finals.

For Season 7 I'm sticking to my guns about TPTB wanting a commercial, handsome white male winner, especially after seeing the commercials for Hollywood Week. I'm pinning Michael Johns, or possibly Robbie Carrico, as TCO. A few others, like Kristy Lee Cook or Carly Smithson, would be the runner-up or shocking boot, and David Archuleta is the back-up winner.

(Edited for clarification)

Edited by Sumi, Feb 4, 2008 @ 8:53 PM.

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#9400

Lucy75

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Posted Feb 4, 2008 @ 9:27 PM

The Sabrina Sloan thing was an internet rumor though. Don't know if I believe that one though....if they wanted her there, she would have been there imo. I am in the minority but I don't believe the votes count.(Taylor being the only exception).
Add David cook to the season 7 top contenders. I think they will push Kristy Lee Cook just because her name sounds very celeb like. A good country singer name. That is one of the reasons TPTB pushed Carrie for the win. The name Carrie Underwood just said "pretty, blonde, all american country singer. Although this year there are many pretty blondes country singers, in season 4 Carrie had no competition for her genre that were shown except Jessica but she wasn't as "all american country girl" as Carrie.

If the votes were going to count only one time, why would it be for Taylor, generally regarded as TPTB's least beloved Idol ever?

Maybe because his votes were so far ahead they couldn't mess with it.....or maybe he really was TCO?

Edited by Lucy75, Feb 4, 2008 @ 11:06 PM.

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#9401

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Posted Feb 4, 2008 @ 11:05 PM

If the votes were going to count only one time, why would it be for Taylor, generally regarded as TPTB's least beloved Idol ever?
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#9402

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Posted Feb 4, 2008 @ 11:32 PM

There are a few non-traditional types thrown in there to mix it up, but I'd imagine they're mostly expected to be cannon fodder. If someone different does make it into the finals, it will be interesting to see how TPTB react.

What I'm going to find interesting in the semifinals is if any of the chosen people cancel each other out in the voting and let someone else sneak in. for instance, I've always felt that in the s4 finals Simon thought Jessica Sierra might cut into Carrie's country vote base and wanted her out ASAP.

If we have, say, four Daughtryish pop-rockers in the semifinals, you might have a more plain pop-ish guy slide through instead over their split votes. If you have several teen guys who sing pop/rock, then the older country singer guy or the pop/R&B guys might slide through.

If you have four country/pop women in the semis (and based on MySpace/former MySpace music descriptions we do), then the indie pop/rock woman might slide through instead. If you've got four or five women who are a pop/soul/rock gumbo, then the straight ahead hard rock female singer may slide through.

Or it could break down to the teenagers where only one of each "type" gets through: the two teenage country girls vs the two teenage r&B/pop girls vs the four teenage guys.

Long way of saying there are lots of possibilities for a mix other than what TPTB wants even if they're trying to stack the deck. If they all really are pretty talented this season and they pick the correct songs for the semis (which is where TPTB can get grassy knollish with the contestants - by blocking the songs they want to sing or suggesting something else), then it's anybody's game.
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#9403

Choo Choo

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Posted Feb 6, 2008 @ 3:43 AM

I know it is old news but did anyone else believe that Mario Vasquez was a ringer hired to compete and then "drop out"?



I believe they had a Carrie/Mario final two planned, and wanted to sign both of them, but Mario foiled their plans by sexually harrassing a guy.


There was a lot of speculation during the semifinals that Sabrina Sloan was TCO and was supposed to have a Kelly Clarkson-like entrance from unknown to contender


I don't think there was anything about Sabrina that screamed "chosen one". I think she was too "old" for them (they like their girls young), plus she didn't really stand out in any way, although she was a good singer.
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#9404

Lucy75

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Posted Feb 6, 2008 @ 7:18 AM

It is true that we get older men in the finale but never females over 25. Actually there hasn't ever been a white female over 25 in the top 12.
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#9405

fitch1919

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Posted Feb 9, 2008 @ 10:44 PM

I think David Archuleta has it in the bag aka is TCO. He is the one genre they haven't captured and the one demo that still buys albums: Adult Contemporary with a slight pop crossover. He will be Idol's winning answer to Clay Aiken and grab the same demos as Gorban and Buble. Plus, he has had ties with Idol since the first season.

Edited by fitch1919, Feb 9, 2008 @ 10:44 PM.

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#9406

Lucy75

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Posted Feb 11, 2008 @ 10:41 PM

Has anyone else noticed that when Simon uses the phrase, I can see you winning, you will win, or I think you should win, in his feedback to the contestant, they always win?
He said it to Ruben, Carrie, and Jordin(maybe Fantasia also). Do you think that is just coincidence?
When Simon said to Jordin on top 7 night....this is the first time I can see you winning this competition, I said....there's are winner, no need to watch anymore.....and lo and behold, she won.
I just remembered back when he told Ruben he should win, and Carrie she would win....and walla, they won.

Edited by Lucy75, Feb 11, 2008 @ 10:44 PM.

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#9407

Kariann1964

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Posted Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:01 PM

Yes, I do remember Simon saying that. Probably trying to brainwash us. Which contestant did he make that remark to for Season 5? I was perfectly happy with Taylor's win.
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#9408

Choo Choo

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Posted Feb 12, 2008 @ 10:42 PM

I'm calling Michael Johns as the chosen one. He got the pimp edit tonight.
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#9409

Nite System

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Posted Feb 12, 2008 @ 10:44 PM

I don't know if he said it to anyone in Season 5. That whole season was kind of a clusterfuck though.

I think it is important to distinguish between Simon's "I could see you winning this" and Simon's favorite contestant, because they aren't necessarily the same. Simon loved Melinda last year, but she didn't win and he didn't predict that she would win. Simon predicted Carrie would win and sell more records than any other AI winner, which she did, but he also said he didn't "get" the whole country thing. I think Uncle Nigel and the other bigwig producers have a lot to do with who gets pimped as well, and their opinions might not always exactly match up with Simon's.

P.S. Michael Johns did get quite a pimp edit. I'm not ready to call TCO just yet though. I thought Carly got a remarkably free ride during Hollywood and there are other "rockers" who I could see going far if they're going for a Nu-Daughtry thing this year.

Edited by Nite System, Feb 12, 2008 @ 10:47 PM.

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#9410

Lucy75

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Posted Feb 12, 2008 @ 11:06 PM

No, I think the chosen one is Brooke White.
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#9411

Sumi

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Posted Feb 12, 2008 @ 11:30 PM

I think, based on tonight and the auditions, we have quite a few locks for the finals.

Top 6 Guys: David Archuleta, David Cook, and Michael Johns. I would add in Danny Noriega, David Hernandez, and Robbie Carrico to round them out.

Top 6 Girls: Amanda Overmyer, Brooke White, Carly Smithson, and Syesha Mercado. Most likely, I would say that Ramiele Malubay and one of Asiah Epperson, Kady Malloy, or Kristy Lee Cook is joining them.

As far as TCO this year, I don't think it's going to be Carly. Ordinarily I would assume she, Kristy Lee Cook, or Michael Johns would be it, but they are each embroiled in one controversy or another. Brooke White is possible, but I just see the judge favor bailing on her in the middle of the finals, much like with Lakisha last season.

Personally, I'm betting on David Archuleta or maybe (strong maybe) David Cook. Speaking of whom, did anyone notice that after each of Michael Johns' performances they shot to David Cook clapping enthusiastically? Are they trying to set up a Daughtry-Ace/Blake-Chris Richardson friendship thing already?
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#9412

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Posted Feb 12, 2008 @ 11:58 PM

I think the chosen one is Brooke White.


Lots of times, the first person we see sing in Hollywood is TCO. Carrie and Fantasia both went first, I think? And Ruben?

But you know, despite the fact that we've hardly seen half of the rumored Top 12 guys from the Top 24, I'm thinking they want a guy this year, and I'd put my money on David A. or Danny Noriega. I think Brooke is the Designated Top Female, though, yeah. And she's the only female contestant I've seen that I like so far this year. She doesn't yell at me.
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#9413

Februarylover80

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Posted Feb 13, 2008 @ 12:11 AM

Wow, I can't believe it has been over a week since I last posted on this thread. Anyway, I'm glad the show finally got to the Hollywood Rounds show. I have to say I enjoyed it more than last year's Hollywood Rounds show even though we didn't see many of the contestants interacting this year once again. I think this season could be a really strong season with the guys and gals taking on songs that aren't the typical AI standards. From what I have seen, it will be a very talented top 24. Maybe Simon and Co. have been right all along and that it is their best top 24 yet because I was impressed with some of the talent tonight for sure. It really could be anyone's game. I really enjoy Brooke White. I just love her style. I've been wanting a girl on the show to do more Carole King type songs for years now. I also really like David Cook and Michael Johns. They are both really good. Carly no doubt is very good and I have her pegged as TCO right now. Of course, David A. may also be TCO. He is very good for only 16 years old and I do think they are trying to capture the teen market again.
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#9414

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Posted Feb 13, 2008 @ 12:17 AM

She doesn't yell at me.


Which is why I don't see how she can win. What female contestant wins that doesn't belt? In order to win you have to win Simon's vote or be Taylor, and she's not as original and endearing as Taylor. Simon likes big-voiced females.

I have trouble seeing her go very far. Subtle doesn't cut it. One bad song choice and she's out.

David Archuleta has been a chosen one since season 1, when he sang for the Idols. He's already done the tv competition/win votes thing. What's amazing is that he comes across as a young, adorable, grateful and therefore inexperienced kid. He does not come across like he's been in the business forever, and is as comfortable on stage as he is off it. He has a huge advantage over the other young male contestants we've seen before. No nerves, no falling apart, and he knows how to play to an audience.
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#9415

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Posted Feb 13, 2008 @ 2:00 AM

Top 6 Guys: David Archuleta, David Cook, and Michael Johns. I would add in Danny Noriega, David Hernandez, and Robbie Carrico to round them out.


Sumi, there are FOUR guys we haven't heard sing yet. Some say Jason Castro is supposed to be a terrific singer. But then, how would we know?

Brooke White will have the same fan base as Carmen Rasmusen and JPL did. I do see TOP 10 even if she isn't a belter. I would love to see a Carole King theme week. She has written about 2,000 songs - great catalog to choose from. BTW, I believe her sweet personality is just that. Sweet.

Edited by Kariann1964, Feb 13, 2008 @ 2:03 AM.

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#9416

Sumi

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Posted Feb 13, 2008 @ 9:25 AM

Sorry, I should have added that that is who I think that TPTB would want in their Top 12 based on the editing so far. A few will slip in based on personality or performance, as always.

Edit: Wow, we didn't see a single performance of three of the guys, plus poor Colton Berry has no chance of getting through the semifinals. Last season we at least saw one Hollywood performance from each semifinalist. I'm thinking that they want one of a few of the men to win (Michael Johns, David Archuleta, or David Cook would be my guesses), so they're throwing in a bunch of unknowns with no fanbases to compete against them.

Edited by Sumi, Feb 13, 2008 @ 9:56 PM.

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#9417

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Posted Feb 13, 2008 @ 10:28 PM

I think Carly was the original TCO for Season 5 when she first auditioned, but when she was DQ'd TPTB kind of panicked and let the chips fall where they may, leading to the unexpected Taylor win. I don't think Carly is TCO this year. There are too many non-threatening teen/tween-appealing guys and Carrie clones and "rockers" for her to fit in anywhere. Plus I was hearing quite a bit of strain in her voice during Hollywood week and I don't think that necessarily bodes well for the future.
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#9418

Choo Choo

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Posted Feb 13, 2008 @ 10:36 PM

No, I think the chosen one is Brooke White.



I doubt it. The producers have said that this is a guy's year, and also that San Diego was the best city (they usually say that about the city where the chosen one auditioned - they said it about St. Louis the year Carrie won). It will be a guy who auditioned in San Diego, either David Archuleta or Michael Johns. I'm leaning towards Michael Johns for now.
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#9419

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Posted Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:14 AM

Speaking of Michael, his MySpace music site is still live and the live EP he recorded with The Rising is available on iTunes. Doesn't TPTB usually shut that type of stuff off once the Top 24 is officially announced? I find that a bit curious.
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#9420

Thegirliscrazy

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Posted Feb 14, 2008 @ 1:22 AM

*blows the dust off my corner of the knoll*

This is a bit off/will probably be something no one else cares about, but I found the split vote on David Hernandez rather odd.

He got unanimous yes's in his first audition and on the first day of Hollywood. Simon in particular liked him a lot and went on about how good he did, how comfortable he looked up on the stage, and how that was a sign that he would do well in the future. So for Simon to do an about face and then suddenly say he didn't think David was good enough and had no chance of winning was just...well maybe strange isn't the word, this is AI we're talking about, but it was out of left field somewhat.

At first I thought it was b/c Simon was the one person pulling for Josiah, but I muted the tv during that part (I didn't want to listen to him breaking down) so I have no idea if Simon was the lone yes there. However, at the end of the show I again found it out of left field when he made a point to tell Kyle that he had voted for him and that while he didn't think Kyle was the best singer there, he felt that a lot of viewers would have liked him.

While I did like Kyle, I could see 'designated joke' status written all over him by tptb and I suspect Simon was pulling for him as the next Kevin Covais or Sanjaya. Kyle seemed very good-natured and probably able to handle the baggage that goes along with that load of crap. Paula and Randy, however probably voted against him in order to prevent that, and thus you get Nigel telling us that there will be none of that this year. I still think there is obvious filler (Colton, in what was briefly shown of him, wasn't that great and there are 3 or 4 guys we haven't even heard sing yet) but there are no obvious joke contestants like Sanjaya or Chicken Little.

Maybe they see shades of Elliot in him (dark horse rides his way to the top 3) or maybe they just worry he will split votes, I don't know. But I think that for whatever reason Simon and/or tptb think Hernandez may be a threat to TCO, or at the least their chosen top male and the reason Simon voted against him is because they wanted or needed a weaker male contestant or two to ensure for an easier win.

I don't know who TCO is as I've actually not been catching all the auditions like I normally do, but I lean toward Michael Johns for now. Also, I vaguely suspect a Carly vs. Amanda arc will happen much like Bo vs. Constantine in season 4.

Edited by Thegirliscrazy, Feb 14, 2008 @ 1:23 AM.

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