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The Grassy Knoll: Conspiracy Theories (SPOILERS)


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#30481

Dejana

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 6:48 PM

Apparently Phil's girlfriend tweeted not to believe everything you read :re the TMZ article. I know Phillip has serious health issues but it sounds to me like Nigel is simply reusing last year's script but this time getting a jump start on things. Remember how Lauren's voice was gone and the reports that Haley would have to take her place in the finale? But the rumors only came within an hour or two of the show starting, so the situation be couldn't be milked for days in advance.

Now with this story about Phillip hitting on a Friday, there's a whole weekend, not to mention the morning/entertainment shows early next week, for the speculation to boil over about whether or not Phillip will even be in the building on Tuesday night, let alone well enough to perform. The show is switching nights next week, which probably hurts the ratings, and any bit of hype to boost interest in the show can't hurt, from TPTB's eyes.

I also wonder if the latest TMZ article is some sort of ploy on Nigel's part to get the Phillip fans not to powervote for him (he's too sick for all the responsibilities that come with winning! We wouldn't want to hurt his recovery!) though if anything the opposite might happen with the sympathy vote.

Edited by Dejana, May 18, 2012 @ 6:52 PM.

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#30482

RoisterDoister

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Posted May 18, 2012 @ 8:41 PM

Remember,any people still blame mis-use of the Save for costing Pia the title




Pia was never as popular as Scotty. She was never going to win. When will people realize this?



I don't understand why the judges couldn't see how the constant standing Os actually hurt Joshua...sigh...



The standing O's didn't hurt him. He was never going to win or make the top 2. I honestly didn't think he'd even make the top 3 (and I say this as someone who likes him).
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#30483

the macguffin

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 7:19 AM

I've got to disagree with the whole 'they need to prove how important the judges and the 'save' are' theory about Jessica's situation. First, why do they have to justify the existence of the judges? It's not like there's some groundswell movement to have a judge-free Idol. If this is meant to be the equivalent of the Melanie call-back on XFactor, well, there's a big perception difference between saving a contestant who had the lowest vote total vs. Simon made a boo boo.

Second, having someone win (assuming that's the endgame) after being saved does damage to the winner, IMO, and I can't believe Nigel isn't aware of this meme already emerging in the chattering class.

I am baffled by the 'PP is dying' crap. Again, if the idiot PTB actually want a girl to win, why in HELL are they ginning up sympathy for the guy?

Edited by the macguffin, May 19, 2012 @ 7:22 AM.

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#30484

alapaki

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 8:28 AM

I don't think they're trying to prove the relevance of judges per se. They may be trying to prove the relevance I THESE judges, who've taken hits for their judging generally as well as their save of Casey last season.

I think they're trying to suppress P2's votes by convincing his fans "if you vote for him to win HE'LL DIE!!!!!"
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#30485

hatchlynn

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 3:33 PM

Second, having someone win (assuming that's the endgame) after being saved does damage to the winner, IMO, and I can't believe Nigel isn't aware of this meme already emerging in the chattering class.

Should she win, there will always be an asterisk next to her name.
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#30486

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 4:14 PM

Nigel just wants to drum up curiosity from casual fans of the show. They might tune in to see if PP passes out on stage. Ratings! His hard core fans have already been assured by the girlfriend that he's not going to die so they will be voting as hard as always. The story only helps PP, he's the one that's in the news this weekend, not Jessica.
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#30487

lazyhazydays

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 5:28 PM

Second, having someone win (assuming that's the endgame) after being saved does damage to the winner, IMO, and I can't believe Nigel isn't aware of this meme already emerging in the chattering class.

Should she win, there will always be an asterisk next to her name.


And "Jessica Gate" and under minings as to whether she was the real winner would have gone on and on. If she hadn't been saved, the Final 2 would have been Phillip and Josh. Jessica is already getting a lot of flack for taking his place in the finale as is.
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#30488

Oldernotwiser

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Posted May 19, 2012 @ 8:22 PM

After many seasons, I have come to the conclusion that there are no conspiracies by TPTB because they're just too dumb/lazy/greedy to bother. They have a brainless formula that has become ever more brainless every year (this crop of judges is Exhibit A), yet the show continues to have ridiculous ratings and rake in the cash. As to engineering who wins...If WGWG Version 5.0 doesn't sell squat after the first three months and the Insta-Album, it hardly matters. Another one will be along just a few short months after the tour ends anyway.
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#30489

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Posted May 20, 2012 @ 3:46 AM

Josh posted on his Facebook page (but deleted a little later) he signed a deal so I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy signed him already much like he signed Pia immediately after her ouster last year so I can't see them even considering bringing him back.

IMO Phillip's girlfriend is trying to keep fans calm. That TMZ article is giving information that's already known. TMZ didn't make it sound like he's on the verge of dying. The only thing I find fishy is the timing. Phillip HAS looked sick, Jimmy has alluded to him being very sick, severe kidney stones and the stent he has are indeed painful they obviously aren't lying about him missing the weekly Ford commercial shoots since he hasn't appeared in them the last few weeks and Phillips father mentioned at the homecoming he's having surgery and will miss part of the tour. Kidney stones can grow large enough to cause urinary tracht blockage and/or kidney swelling so of course his doctors feel he needs surgery right away. Is his girlfriend going to deny all that? Even without the TMZ article taking all that into consideration and I think he would make a not so great winner. I won't even get into the whole WGWG thing. A saved contestant winning could hurt the franchise but it will hurt anyway if another Hot AC white male wins and struggles to sell albums and get airplay.
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#30490

drunkinthefog

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Posted May 20, 2012 @ 10:41 AM

I have come to the conclusion that there are no conspiracies by TPTB because they're just too dumb/lazy/greedy to bother.


Seconded.

The only thing they might pay attention to is ratings and think that drama and the illusion of excellence equal better ratings. Therefore, supporting it all: Jessica's save, P2's illness, hyping up Josh. How it all affects the franchise in the long run is beyond their competence.
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#30491

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Posted May 20, 2012 @ 11:22 AM

Yeah, I third.
Idol is just a business. I think every season there's a 'business plan', which may start with a contestant somebody found in a club or at another contest(ie, Jordin, Archie, Lambert)or who just showed up at an audition (Carrie, Fanty, Lauren/Scotty), who seemed like a good choice for potential winner. The cast is built around that person, taking care in theory to not cast anyone who seems to present an immediate threat to the winner. Obviously, they can't foresee a Hicks or Cook, but when they happen, TPTB don't try very hard to keep the public from getting what they want.
There are manipulations in favor of the chosen one, especially early on, but once the contestants have fanbases, all TPTB are doing is hyping the battle, not the outcome. It's been 6 years since Hicks' winning was supposed to bring down the franchise, 3 since DeWyze was going to be the nail in the coffin. As much as it depresses me, PP as the 5th (White) Element will not in fact make the Nokia go up in a mushroom cloud.
That said, the 'rule of 3' says that season 12 will be a really bad one. So prepare for Number 6.
eta: if there's any 'conspiracy' it's probably the season format- ie, they found the countdown (top 24-20-16-12, etc) one was too hard to manipulate to get the top 10 they want for the tour. Thus the more judge-dependent formats since the debacle of S9.

Edited by the macguffin, May 20, 2012 @ 11:28 AM.

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#30492

Dejana

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 10:17 AM

Pia was never as popular as Scotty. She was never going to win. When will people realize this?

Thank you! Even with The Save, Pia would have been lucky to make the finale. After Scotty, Lauren was popular/pimped, there was James and Haley still would've gotten tons of votes because the judges were so "mean" to her. If Pia had gone out at fifth or so I doubt her exit would have been viewed as a Daughtry situation.


3 since DeWyze was going to be the nail in the coffin.

I do think S9 as a whole (well before the winner was crowned) showed Idol to be vulnerable in a way that it never had before. After S9 it wasn't as hard for other networks and maybe even FOX to believe that Idol was finally on its way out and that there was room for other singing shows to rule the ratings. I think FOX's situation with Idol and X Factor was like NBC with Leno and Conan, ending up with the worst of everything trying to hold on to both--X Factor's ratings not being as high as expected while Idol's numbers fell off dramatically thanks to the singing competition fatigue, of which X Factor was a part.

If Phillip wins, he wins, but I still don't get the way TPTB hyped up his audition and continued to talk him up as such an artiste compared to the others. I'm not saying they should have bashed the guy, but maybe laid off the praise some? But I guess to these judges, laying off the praise means giving someone two standing ovations instead of twelve. Maybe it's true TPTB really don't care anymore who wins because they know the money train will roll on no matter what. In the earlier years, they were less sure about that, so they tried a lot harder to manipulate the results.

Edited by Dejana, May 21, 2012 @ 10:21 AM.

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#30493

HeyItsMona

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 1:21 PM

All this talk about PhiPhi's kidneys is just a ploy to draw attention to his pelvic region. If you catch my drift. TPTB felt he was not cooperative enough in terms of gazing longingly at the camera for the ladies (hi Colton!), so they decided to take the matter into their own hands.
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#30494

Dejana

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 8:40 PM

Seen the promo for tomorrow's finale? It's the "musical artist" vs. "the big ole voice". From the way Iovine talked up Phillip on a conference call today he must have this thing in the bag:

Phillip is a very unusual artist to get this far on American Idol. I’m really impressed with that. Phillip’s career is going to be based on–he’s a writer and a singer-songwriter. You don’t have the world to pick material from. He may take some help in collaborations and different things that he does. For that secret to still be in the bag– to have him [go] this far–a big part of it is those songs. Dave Matthews, Paul Simon, Bruce Springsteen–what are the songs? That part, the audience doesn’t know yet. But I believe in him a lot. I think he’s got crazy charisma, incredible sound. I’m really happy about that. I think it bodes well for American Idol that a kid like that can get this far.


I get that they don't want to diss the next face of the franchise, but come on, there's no need to rewrite reality and pretend that Phillip has been a new type of contestant for the show. But I guess nothing that happened on Idol before Interscope came aboard counts, right?

Edited by Dejana, May 21, 2012 @ 8:46 PM.

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#30495

the macguffin

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 9:45 PM

That part, the audience doesn’t know yet. But I believe in him a lot. I think he’s got crazy charisma, incredible sound.

Well, 'incredible' is a nice way of putting it, don't you think?
I find it odd that PP is now this great sekrit songwriter. I know I'm repeating myself, but long before this point in S7-8-9, we had already heard the songwriting of David Cook- Kris Allen- Lee D and Crystal. We've heard bupkis of this dude's alleged treasure trove of material; not so much as an old YT of him singing one of his tunes at the diner. I think Jimmy is preparing for the inevitable and trying to put the best possible face on S9 redux.
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#30496

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Posted May 21, 2012 @ 10:08 PM

I agree. Jimmy is talking like a man who might know the voting trends. But I can't blame him if he thinks Phil is unique for Idol. This is only his second year on the show, and I'm pretty sure he wasn't an obsessed fanboy for all the years prior. He can't possibly feel the "wgwg" phenomenon in the same way as diehards like us do. But even if he does understand the depth of that, he still has to hype the talent in the best way possible.

Btw, his take on Jessica sounds like he doesn't think she's quite ready for prime time. Would he say such a thing about someone who's about to win?
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#30497

alapaki

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Posted May 22, 2012 @ 8:35 AM

I have come to the conclusion that there are no conspiracies by TPTB because they're just too dumb/lazy/greedy to bother.


Well, the bottom line is about making money. I've always thought that the TPTB don't want/need to pre-determine the actual ultimate winner. Rather, they strive to set up a F3 or F4 scenario that presents a no-lose situation for themselves (i.e. they'd be content with any of the remaining finalists winning). And I certainly believe that the identity of the contestants in that group may change between auditions and the early semi-final and final rounds as some initially promising contestants start to choke, and other middle-of-pack contestants improve and develop a following.

The problem that TPTB have now is that they don't have judges capable of pulling off some of the shenanigans that they used to use, and they can't or won't fire any of the remaining judges.

eta: I do agree that, from a ratings and ad-revenue standpoint, the biggest threat to AI is not the quality of any given season's winner but the over-saturation of "talent" reality shows on the air right now.

Edited by alapaki, May 22, 2012 @ 8:36 AM.

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#30498

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Posted May 22, 2012 @ 2:51 PM

I'm 99.9999 % sure Jessica will win. I don't really understand why they want her or how she can attract that many voters. I could understand past female winners. Besides being good to great singers Kelly had personality, Carrie looked like a Barbie doll, Fantasia had passion. Even Jordin had a likability even though she wasn't very connected. Jessica is technically a good singer but she doesn't really have personality. She is cute but has a body of a 10 year old and IMO doesn't have much likability at all. And what is it with Ryan always saying 16 year old Jessca Sanchez? Is it a legality thing that your name has I be said if you are under 18?
Interesting how all of a sudden she is ahead in the polls and also this is knollish. She already has a celeb page to click on but Phillip doesn't:
http://m.digitalspy....lip-to-win.html
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#30499

alapaki

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Posted May 22, 2012 @ 7:06 PM

I think they'd be happy with a Jessica win for proof that a female can win, if nothing else.
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#30500

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Posted May 22, 2012 @ 8:21 PM

Wow, the PP pimp squad really came out tonight. He was probably leading in votes all season (or at least since Colton was voted out) and it seems like TPTB are backing him for the sake of being able to say, "We backed the winner! And it turns out he was the most popular all along so America totally listens to us!" or something.
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#30501

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Posted May 22, 2012 @ 11:48 PM

Wow not only did Phillip get pimped, but he got a great coronation song that fits him like a glove and Jessica got screwed with an overdone Whitney Houston song and a godawful coronation song. DialIdol has correctly predicted the winner final 2 night EVERY year. Game over. Poor Jessica. As mentioned above though based on how Jimmy spoke maybe she's better off and they can take their time molding her.
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#30502

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 1:33 AM

She will still win. Dial Idol also doesn't have him in the green. Other years the winner was. She is way ahead on every poll as well. I was surprised though how they pImped him.
Every year they make such a big deal about winning but there really hadn't been a successful winner in a long time. I wonder if the contestants think about that.

Edited by Laurie4H, May 23, 2012 @ 1:35 AM.

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#30503

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 5:58 AM

but there really hadn't been a successful winner in a long time.


Scotty McCreary has sold 1.3 million copies of his album---that, in the new reality of few cds selling massive numbers, is excellent. Selling over 300,000 is actually considered respectable. I guess that it depends on what a person's expectations are, IRL any first time artist would be happy to have the sort of sales that most IDOL winners have.
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#30504

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 7:54 AM

True but he is country which seems to be a lot easier to break into post Idol.
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#30505

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 8:25 AM

The coronation songs told the story. Phillip's song perfectly suited his style, plus he got a marching band on stage, while Jessica was stuck with the generic ballad. The studio version sounds a little more R&B but they clearly put more effort into finding something decent for Phillip. If that actually gets airplay, I might have to change my predictions about how Phillip will fare post-Idol. Hats off to Interscope if they actually go 2-for-2 on coronation songs.

DialIdol has Phillip ahead slighty but Jessica made up a huge margin with the West Coast voting. It could really go either way.

Edited by Dejana, May 23, 2012 @ 8:29 AM.

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#30506

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 9:09 AM

I think that is the closest Dialidol has ever been for the finale? The fact that Jessica is ahead on every poll seals her win. The person who is ahead always wins. I wonder if Phillip got the marching band etc just because he went second and they wanted to make the lasts performance a moment no matter who it was?

Edited by Laurie4H, May 23, 2012 @ 9:09 AM.

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#30507

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 9:59 AM

Laurie I tend to agree with you that Jessica will win, personally I see nothing special about either one of them and didn't bother voting, I guess if she wins it will at least signify that Idol viewers, overwhelmingly female, will vote for the right female (pity that Alison Iraheta competed in such a top loaded talent season such as 8, I'd trade her for Jessica any day.)
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#30508

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 10:04 AM

I really think that come finale night, the thing that most increases voting is not great performances, but being thrown under the bus, which Jessica 1000% was. I have no idea of the voting patterns in season 7, but Simon and co declared Archie the winner in basically every round and gave Cook basically a consolation speech, and then the next night it was revealed that Cook won by millions and millions.

So I'm wondering that if to get Jessica the win, they needed her to do worse, as silly as that seems? Heck, if she won last week on her worst night ever, that could actually work.
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#30509

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 10:25 AM

I think that is the closest Dialidol has ever been for the finale?


I think it was slightly closer for S8, though rumor has it that finale wasn't close at all. They didn't announce the vote split that year.


I really think that come finale night, the thing that most increases voting is not great performances, but being thrown under the bus, which Jessica 1000% was. I have no idea of the voting patterns in season 7, but Simon and co declared Archie the winner in basically every round and gave Cook basically a consolation speech, and then the next night it was revealed that Cook won by millions and millions.


In S7 Cook had been leading the vote for weeks by the time the finale came around. Honestly, I think TPTB believed Cook would lose because he went with a new song instead of singing "Billie Jean" or "Hello", while Archie did "Imagine" again. Unless you believe they called it a knockout for Archie with the intent of spurring on the backlash vote. I don't think so, because the year before, they called it for Jordin and she won. Ditto with Taylor Hicks over Kat back in S5. They probably called it for Carrie and Fantasia when they won, too. Maybe now TPTB know that sending the bus someone's way on finale night boosts the vote totals, but I doubt they knew it back in S7.

The criticism doesn't get any stupider than JLo slamming "The Prayer" because she'd heard it before (it was the reprise round). It's unfair but kind of amusing when the judges slam a coronation song. The contestant usually doesn't have much choice in the matter of singing it and they're notoriously not very good. Remember when Kara said not to judge someone by their performance of the song she co-wrote? Good times.
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#30510

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Posted May 23, 2012 @ 11:44 AM

Simon Fuller told Rolling Stone magazine shortly after the S7 finale that David Cook led the votes every week so he wasn't shocked he won. IMO Simon' "knockout" comment only made the margin wider between him and Archie . Simon did call Carrie, Fantasia and Taylor as the winner but got it wrong with Clay/Ruben (he told Clay he did enough to win).

Jessica got screwed last night but not in such an obvious harsh way that would send her fans AND casual voters into a voting frenzy. I'd like to see her win but I still think Phillip sealed it by closing the show with a song that got people talking. Win or lose I'll bet anything that song ends up the seasons big seller.
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