The thing is, tribal switches are ALWAYS part of the game. Everyone who plays the game should be aware that a tribal switch might happen. And it's happened more than once in a season before (All-stars, for instance). Double vote outs are common too, especially after the producers decided that 16 people weren't enough.

I Think that the Fang leftovers completely deserve their spot. Fang made some good decisions, while Kota made some bad ones. Fang chose to take Kelly in their tribe, which saved them for several votes by A) voting Jaquie out, and B) being able to vote Kelly out later on. Kota voted out Dan who was desperately trying to be loyal, and kept Susie who they didn't really trust. They were cocky and thought they had it in the bag.

And honestly, if this hadn't have happened I don't know that I would have kept watching; I don't need to see another boring season where the dominate tribe easily takes it to the end (as if Africa, Thailand, All-Stars, Palau, and China weren't enough). The switch ups made this season so much more fun to watch IMO, and way more satisfying.

I'm not saying that tribal switches aren't part of the game. Luck is a part of the game. What I and others are saying is the lucky breaks came down on Kenny and Crystal's side. Especially the second one. I'm not saying Marcus didn't play it poorly. Not at all.

However there were several things that happened that helped. The main one being that Kenny and Crystal ended up on the same side as Suzie, the only member of the kota six that they had a shot of flipping.

Yes it took some skill to flip her, (plus some poor play on Marcus' part) however replace Suzie with Corrinne, Randy or Charlie there's no chance they survive.

What if the Immunity Challenge was something that was determined by individuals? Randy Charlie and Corrinne were talking about throwing the challenge to get rid of Matty. (granted Sugars HII might have come into play, maybe not. )

You can be aware tribal switches happen all you want. but you can't guarantee who your new tribemates are going to be. They best you can do is try not alienate anyone on your tribe.

Look at Michelle from Earl and Yau man's season. She was playing a great game but when the switched happened she was completely isolated from all her allies.

Personally. Fang isn't so much as winning the game as Kota is losing it.

Michelle and Marcus are completely different in that Marcus at least had time to readjust, but did so poorly. Michelle, OTOH, went right to Tribal Council with zero time to readjust or make some deals. So I'd say she was more screwed over than Marcus was.

How can someone be labeled a "better" player when s/he isn't prepared AT ALL for a tribal switch? It's been a part of the show since the early seasons, and if being a "better player" means saying, "I'll align with you and you and you and that's it, we're the Final 4, YAY!" then those players will never make it.

Winning challenges, it has been shown time and time again, doesn't win you the game. Being loyal to one group of people without any flexibility doesn't win you the game. The people who are "good players" in Survivor don't tend to win, and I don't understand why players don't understand that the only thing that matters is getting to the final 2/3.

How can someone be labeled a "better" player when s/he isn't prepared AT ALL for a tribal switch? It's been a part of the show since the early seasons, and if being a "better player" means saying, "I'll align with you and you and you and that's it, we're the Final 4, YAY!" then those players will never make it.

Winning challenges, it has been shown time and time again, doesn't win you the game. Being loyal to one group of people without any flexibility doesn't win you the game. The people who are "good players" in Survivor don't tend to win, and I don't understand why players don't understand that the only thing that matters is getting to the final 2/3.

About luck and Kota always winning and suffering form switcheroos, all those switches were the perfect opportunity for any team to win the numbers game. What a great gift it is not having to win an IC to keep your members, you can just throw the challenge and vote out an outsider in TC. They wasted that chance.

Not true. Since the 3rd season, every season EXCEPT Palau (the season of Ulong) has had some sort of a tribal switchup. That is pretty much the rule now - Ulong's season was the exception. Anyone going on Survivor by now ought to expect that at some point, they will switch up the tribes. As a viewer, I certainly expect it.

It's one thing to expect the tribal shakeup for every season. But this is 2 tribal shakeups, and the mercy double eviction. I don't know what would've happend if Dan wasn't voted out, but it would've been much odds for Kota with that extra player. I feel he would've been more loyal to the onions because he's an alpha and they were an alpha alliance. He could understand them better.

This is impromtu producer manipulation to avoid a Pagonging and prevent the likelihood of a boring season. The only problem is, rather than doing stuff to even out the field, they went overboard this time.

And I don't remember why they DIDN'T do one on Ulong. I was listening to the commentary and they were like they wanted to see what would happened [I think they didn't think that an entire team would suck that badly]. If you are a true master of this game, you'd anticipate it, and try not to act to assy to ppl because when you do find yourself on the new tribe - you're more okay then the person acting like, again a total ass.

I think there's a difference between the tribe switches being lucky for one side or another, and the tribal switchups creating opportunities.

While I can't argue that the switchup don't have an enormous impact on the game, I also believe that at this point, everyone knows they are inevitable, and good players keep this in mind, always. Good players form alliances that can weather the tribe switchups, as the members of a strong alliance work towards a common goal regardless of which tribe they are on. Seeing each shakeup as an opportunity to keep moving forward in the game is key.

And that takes some players thinking strategically; it might have been luck that opened the door, but folks don't get booted by themselves. Talking tribe members into the Jacquie and Ace boots use skill and some thinking. Yes, it could not happen without the shakeup, but it was folks who would have been likely booted by the Matty, Dan, Randy, Susie alliance who made those boots happen. They seized an opportunity to get back in the game. Meanwhile, Randy seems to have deserted his alliance once the switch happened. And while it seems that Dan and Susie had also jumped over, it seems to me that Susie was always skeptical of her place in that alliance, and was likely to move back with Fang if the situation seemed right after merge (or another tribal switch).

There's nothing more to say about how Marcus was pretty much responsible for his own boot. His condescending conversations with both Crystal and Kenny broadcast that he could not be trusted to bring Crystal into his alliance of "smart" people, and also indicated where in that alliance Susie was placed; it may have been luck that split the teams up in this way, but it was good thinking that kept Crystal, Kenny, and Susie in the game. Marcus could have made a good case for voting off Susie, that would have left his alliance in a still strong position and avoided his reliance on Crystal because he knew her cousin.

This has not been a strategic season in general, with no real sense that folks are thinking long-range as they make decisions. Each move feels like a skirmish and is decided on the immediate concerns and conditions. So the season favors, as someone said earlier, flexible players who think quickly, rather than the folks who while athletic and able to work as a team, are unable to imagine that other folks are playing to win. In a way, Fang is lucky that the game started out with a whole team of arrogant players who early on supported each others arrogance blinding them to being vigilant about playing the game, rather than the twists themselves being the luck.

They voted out Dan because they were sure they didn't need him. Turned out they were wrong (not that they should've seen it coming that early) and they sure could have used him. Again (or perhaps more accurately, from the start) their hubris cost them.

I agree with smiley man - that was a good analysis. And it leads directly to...



Once it was proven that Dan didn't have it, the fact that nobody on originalKota gave Sugar even a passing consideration (that she might have it) was a perfect summation of their hubris and eventual downfall. It was incredibly stupid for them to just completely dismiss the chance that Sugar had it. That they could be that condescending to her symbolizes (to me) everything that was wrong with their game.

None of this means that those who are left are Survivor geniuses. I imagine most of them would show very badly with almost any other season's cast. (And that's probably why so many of us are having a hard time with this season.) I think it is tough to say that Ken, Crystal, Sugar and the rest are playing well. They're not really. But they are playing much better than the Kota folks have played. And that's why they're still there and the onions are gone (or going in the case of Corinne).



In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. The Fangs are the one-eyed and the Kotas are the blind. But Just because the Fangs see better than the Kotas, doesn't mean they have 20/20 vision.

The difference is that Parvati got a lot of respect in the post boot interviews leading up to the finals. What's emerging re: Sugar on the other hand is that she's a cunt with a generous edit. I don't see those same people handing her a million dollars. Unless it's a F2 and they both make it, Sugar and Suzie are done in this game.

I don't see it that way. I'm not even sure who I consider "Fang" and who I consider "Kota" at this point, but Kenny and Crystal have had nothing but lucky breaks erasing their ineptitude, while everything Marcus, Jacquie, Bob and the others (even Matty, Dan and Randy, all original Fangs, were screwed to varying degrees by twists) worked to build in camp and in trusting, solid alliances, has been eroded over and over again by twists that didn't work out in their favor. I don't interpret Kenny and Crystal's producer-handed second, third and fourth chances as a remarkable flexibility or an openness to opportunity. It seems like the people who had nothing to lose and everything to gain from the multiple shake-ups unsurprisingly lost nothing and gained something, while the people who actually did have a foundation built in the game (non-"underdogs" I guess) could only be screwed by them.

I agree. I actually like twists from time to time. They can be exciting. But at some point it becomes stupid to even have a plan. If you make strong alliances and have a gameplan and succeed in challenges, you'll be picked off by the less efficient after having your work dismantled a few times via producer intervention. Which isn't to say that Crystal and Kenny don't "deserve" their current power position, it just isn't satisfying to me as a viewer to see that kind of random success. It doesn't feel like it was hard-fought or come from behind, it feels like nothing really matters in the game and you can ass-backwards your way through the entire thing if you happen to benefit from a rock-draw three or four times.

It certainly is that, though. That's why the producers put twists in in the first place. It's to shake things up. If they weren't present, every Survivor season would go like this:

- Each tribe creates an alliance hierarchy. Losing alliance loses members if they lose immunity challenges. Dominant alliance stays strong.

- Merge.

- Tribe with larger alliance entering merge removes the minority tribe, unless someone keeps winning II (think if Peih-Gee won II at both F5 and F4).

That is boring. Boring. BORING!

The twists create an opportunity. You can do good things with it, or poor things with it.

Good examples:

Gabon: Kenny selecting Kelly from Kota over Bob. If you read Jacquie's post-elim interviews, she said Matty allied with her and Ace. This is why Matty went and told Jacquie the rest of Fang wanted to vote her out instead of Kelly. If Kenny had selected Bob over Kelly, Fang would have lost their numbers, and Crystal would have probably been booted.

China: Peih-Gee and Jaime throwing their first II challenge to get James or Aaron out, since their tribe was down in numbers overall.


Poor Example:

Cook Islands: Penner choosing to mutiny to Raro tribe. If he stuck with Aitu, they could have thrown the challenge, got rid of Ozzy, and re-joined with people like Brad and Jenny. Oops! Mutinied, Raro lost more members, and Raro -- despite their numbers -- was axed out as Ozzy and Yul got into F3. Penner got voted out, by the way.


The point is that the producers create opportunities. It's not cut and dried. Fang was not saved by the first tribe swap: Matty would have flipped if they didn't pick Kelly who hated Ace, Sugar, and Jacquie. They were not saved by the second tribal swap -- the Kotas' relied on their "6" and basically promised Susie 6th place and treated her like crud.

You do have to be flexable with the producer twists. They're not a benefit or demerit to anyone in particular. Kota could have thrown II challenges (ala Peih-Gee) and kicked out Randy, Dan, and Susie. They opted not to. They could have taken Sugar's idol out of play once she re-joined. But, no, they had to be immunity hogs and conduct themselves in a way that lost them a crucial swing vote.

Short end of it: If there were no twists, every season would play out just as I described above. And it would be terribly boring.

Well, of the three Survivor requirements, outwit, outplay, and outlast...I think "outlast" is the most important.

Fang, despite the odds, is outlasting Kota. Winning challenges can be important, very important--the trouble is, Kota seemed to think that was all they needed. They were so busy patting themselves on the back and thinking everyone else is stupid, they forgot all about twists and turns, they alienated some key alliance members with the sheer nastiness, and they failed to adapt to what should have been expected changes.

They had more food, more strength, more wins, but they didn't have more of a social game, and, as much as they couldn't admit it, didn't have more brains than the so-called loser tribe, Fang. If they did, this would be a whole different game--you have to adapt and they just...didn't. They failed to ... survive, even with all the odds in their favor. For that? They suck.

I am liking this season, although I regret a couple of the earlier boots. I will love this season if Susie and Sugar are final two. Major love.

I don't buy the producer "interference" handed this to Fang. When the shake up happened, advantage was still on Kota's side with sheer numbers...if they hadn't been so full of themselves one of them might have survived to win this.

I disagree with this extreme statement. The one in China (which caused Aaron's offing without much if any chance to save himself) was worse than this.

If Susie had stuck with Kota and voted out Ken, would that have made a difference?

I don't buy for a moment that the producers are throwing out these things on a whim at a moment's notice, trying to benefit one tribe at the expense of the other, based on how the voting has been going.

Richard Hatch sure got lucky that Sean's "alphabet" voting happened to match what his alliance needed to do at that specific vote; otherwise, he goes. Also lucky that Kelly changed her vote at the F4 council from him to Sue.

Tina Wesson sure got lucky that Kimmi blabbed about her early vote for Jeff. Otherwise her tribe may not win that first merge vote, and she could have been Pagonged. Also very lucky that Colby made a "dumb" choice (if you will) to take her to F2 instead of the despised Keith.

Etc. for the other 14 seasons where the twists and tribal swaps started coming and the winner was usually a beneficiary of those twists.

If you don't like the idea that the eventual winner will have gotten "lucky breaks" else they would have been booted...why even watch this show?

Yes, people get lucky, but I also think the producers (and Jeff) are making decisions based on what happens to be going on, at any given time. In this case, all the smart people are voted out and we're left with what Jeff described over and over again as, "The worst tribe in Survivor history."

And Nobag is the silliest tribe name. Obviously, it was silly when they came up with it, but I thought I would get used to it, the same way I became accustomed to every other tribe name. But I still haven't. Every time they show the tribe flag, every time they subtitle the setting, the only thing I can think is how ridiculous the name is.

But I still want to watch the show.

But Jeff thought a few seasons were "really" awesome, that fans didn't, and vice versa. Using Jeff as a barometer is really risky, yeah? [Unless I'm totally reading you wrong, then I apologise.]

Nobag bother me to no end. I wish they just called themselves Kang or Fota or Fotakang or something because that's better than NOBAG. That's like going to the supermarket and saying NOBAG please.

Hands down the bestest names in Survivor Merged Tribe history is Soliantu, Alinta and whatever they came up with in Exile Island and Bruce made an awesome flag.

Novaya and Lady V; much agree with what you said :) The twists are a necessary and much needed part of the game. Even the "non" twist of ASS worked to a certain extent. And again it shows can you deal with it, or do you just flop along like a dead fish.

Is that so different from the current season so far? The only difference seems to be that the tribe which lost most of the immunity challenges became the dominant tribe, thanks to switches.

When the twists come from above, I find the show more uninteresting to watch. This season has been very little strategy and lots of yelling and carrying on, and annoying personalities. Oddly enough, this happened (in my opinion) in the other seasons with two switches (All Stars, Fiji).


I think Sean said he was voting with them based on alliance, he just hid behind the alphabet voting strategy.


Fang was never in a position where they had to use their brains. Picking Kelly was an easy move. Convincing Susie to get rid of Marcus was an easy move. If something had happened like Ken and Crystal had been separated with one of the switches, and they both managed to survive to the merge, then I'd be more impressed. The way it is now, it seems more like Kota messing up than Fang being smart.


I think they showed more of the Crazy Crystal earlier on, and they're making up for it now. Maybe she's simply a distraction to hide Ken's win. Whatever their reason, I think she's been as good or better a strategist than Ken, who is much more of the generic "this is my master plan, be in awe of my brilliance" type of player. I wouldn't mind her or Susie winning, just to show that you don't have to fit that old pattern to be a strategic player.

Denise from China was a pathetic player. I think Crystal is doing a pretty decent job. Besides, how many winners have really been challenge monsters, or even strategic masterminds? The masterminds tend to go out at 3 or 4, and the monsters get kicked out on their first slip-up. As for attitudes... the winners who would win the Miss Congeniality award are in the distinct minority.

Just remember, there might be winners like Tom, Earl, Yul, and Danni, but .... Jenna, Parvati, and Sandra can also claim the title of Sole Survivor --- Sandra had some pretty sour moments, was painful to watch in most challenges, and employed the highly-strategic "anyone except me" strategy, but at the end of the day was a million dollars richer. Parvati was a brilliant social player, but owed a lot of her victory to Cirie's smart moves. And Jenna.... yeah.

So I wouldn't be sorry to see Crystal win. Anyone who has been on the bottom a bit and has had to scramble is usually an okay winner by me. Crystal has shown herself to be fairly flexible in tough times -- and I will forever love her for her "whisper" vote for Randy.

Except that's demonstrably false. The vote against Jenna was the first time his vote coincided with Richard's alliance.

Oh, and add in that the Tagis were targeting Greg for the first merge (non-Jury) boot, but he happened to win immunity and they had to vote Gretchen out. Greg voted for Richard, but I read somewhere that Gretchen had said she probably would have voted for Kelly had she made the jury instead of Greg. So throw in another incredibly lucky break for Richard.

On another topic, I have been flip-flopping all season long on whether Sugar is really clueless or just playing dumb. The recap pointed out something that I missed in the original airing -- Sugar's use of "behoove" when talking to Bob. As Sara points out, that's not a word that stupid people use in casual conversation, and Sugar used it with Bob, probably one of the few people who wouldn't raise an eyebrow at hearing it. That convinced me that however lucky she may be, she's not dumb, and I'm starting to think she's actually very smart, despite what Corinne may think of her. Her game-smarts at this point look a lot better than Corinne's.

I doubt very much that the decisions are made based on what's going on. If the producers (and Jeff) were doing that, then I would expect the outcomes to favor those that the editing (controlled by the producers) and the commentary (controlled by Jeff) clearly favor. And that's clearly not the case this time. Maybe I am naive, maybe I just don't tend to see a conspiracy around every corner, or maybe I just prefer to believe the playing field is even (meaning the decisions are made prior and the luck is random), but I completely disagree that the twists are made based on the actions of the players. YMMV - obviously.

FWIW - I don't think that all the smart people are getting voted out. First, if they were all so smart (Marcus), they would've made some moves to save themselves and not get voted out. Second, Paloma and Kelly have been voted out, and I think you would have to look long and hard to find anyone that would call either of them smart. And third, you can pick on their ability at challenges, their lack of social skills and their luck - but I think at least some of the folks left (Ken and Bob at least) appear to be "smart".

Finally, "worst tribe in Survivor history" as compared to what and by what? Performances at challenges? Maybe I could accept that - if we go simply by calling the folks that happened to be wearing red buffs as "the worst tribe". But remember, there was a rather sizable change in Fang personnel at the first tribe shakeup. Essentially half the team turned over. Randy, Dan & Susie lost every challenge (save 1) when wearing red and won every challenge when wearing yellow. Were they part of (or not part of) the "worst tribe in history"? (Ditto, but in reverse, for Ace, Sugar, Kelly and Jacqui.) It seems ridiculous to call Fang the worst tribe in history when significant parts of Fang (pre- and post shakeup) were never even in the tribe together. Was Fang1 the worst ever, or was it Fang2? Or does he just mean Ken, Crystal and Matty? He probably wants to toss Susie in too - though she was only Fang for half the time.

It is also somewhat ironic and funny that since the challenges changed over to individual based (as opposed to team based) they have ALL been won by people that were part of that "worst tribe in history". (IIRC, Matty, Susie and Ken have won the ICs - none of the challenge monsters on Kota has won a single IC aside from the first episode race which doesn't really count since it was contested only among their own tribes.)



I can agree that she isn't dumb - conventionally speaking. But I don't think her game smarts are all that and a bag of chips. Totally agree they're better than Corinne's, but I don't see Sugar winning this thing. She might have over played her hand - the onions to not respect her AT ALL and unless something dramatic happens between now and FTC none of them will vote her the win.

IMO game smarts that get you to F3 (or F2 or whatever) in a position where you have next to zero chance to win - isn't really all that game smart.

They've been tweaking the situation since the day they put fish in the tribes net because they were too clueless to figure out how to fish and feed themselves. That was in Season 1. Yes, I do believe that. They want to keep the show as interesting as possible.

Which is also why they tweak the character's edits. Sugar apparently is not all that likable, yet she is shown beyond nice and sweet and not wanting to be nasty to anyone (except Randy.) Randy is apparently a miserable SOB on the show, but at least some players discussed that he is not as bad as shown. Marcus wasn't shown to be as arrogant as the nasty words said about him by Kenny and Crystal, they hinted at it, but did not show how badly Kenny and Crystal talked about him. They manipulate everything, including overly manipulating a lot of these "characters." Anything to keep the show interesting and full of drama.

I didn't come up with that. I was just quoting Jeff Probst.

Yes, people get lucky, but I also think the producers (and Jeff) are making decisions based on what happens to be going on, at any given time. In this case, all the smart people are voted out and we're left with what Jeff described over and over again as, "The worst tribe in Survivor history."

I don't believe the producers are throwing things in based on what is happening. This would be attempting to rig the outcome and is against FCC rules. This would leave them open to huge fines and possible lawsuits.

Certainly they edit the material how they choose to, in order to present players in a certain light. Certainly they were not portraying Corrine as a complete raging bitch (well until the clip show) but she hasn't gotten a great edit. Mainly because I don't think in her case there is enough good material.

I also think that JP is interjecting himself into the game way more than he should. He could be subconsciously influencing people to view other contestants in a different light. They should get rid of him and split hosting duties between Penner and Eliza.

This isn't a game show. The producers can manipulate it anyway they want to get the "unscripted drama" that Burnett loves so much.

I'm not a Sugar fan, but it certainly looks like she makes the final three. She's gone the distance and has had almost every single major element revolve around her. I think her edit screams non-winner, though. She's obviously not going to be a innocent pagonging victim. So either her edit has to explain why she gets her comeuppance, or why she loses in F3.

Not so. Probst and Burnett have gone on record saying that because they award money; they fall under the FCC game show rules and they can't rig anything to get the desired effect. And honestly, considering some of the outcomes, you really can't deny that.

Richard winning instead of Rudy.
Tina winning instead of Colby.
Rob C losing to Jenna/Matt..

even as recent as this: They have a challange built for Cirie. You stand still, have to hold something delicate in a certain position. Cirie is a surgical nurse; this is her livihood; she would win. She doesn't. She drops the ball; Amanda wins, takes Parvarti, Parvarti wins.

WAY back when in Borneo - Kelly the river guide, Gervase the guy who can't do anything; swim, run, walk, it seems like. Kelly is all I'm gonna kick his ass, Gervase says I like the spotlight. Gervase [and Pagong] kick Kelly's ass so hard - Kelly cries to Sue, "I lost to a guy who can't even F'in swim."

So honestly, [especially NOW] I don't know if they have a few challanges, see who they casted, and twist the challanges around [ie: we were GONNA do challange A, but XX ppl are left, let's do challange B instead!], but to maniuplate the game to GET X person in, or get X person out? No, again, like it's been said, the FCC [and Survivors themselves] would be up CBS/Survivor's butt so fast it wouldn't even be pretty.

I didn't say they were rigging for someone in particular to win. (Otherwise, Burnett's favourite, Rupert, would have done so, which is why he resorted to giving him a million dollars in another way, but I digress...) I'm saying that they manipulate to make sure there is as much excitement and drama as possible.

I don't think the producers rigged it. And if they did, they couldn't have predicted that Kenny would have picked Kelly, or that Sugar would turn on Ace, or that Susie would flip back to Ken/Crystal. I mean, that's a lot of assumptions to be made in order to give the original Fang members an edge.

In any case, I'm glad it worked out the way it did. I was prepared to stop watching once it became a certainty that the Onion alliance would go all the way to the end. That would have been boring. Thank god that wasn't the case. I will be satisfied with any of the remaining players (except Corrine) winning the million.

The way the "pick-em" was set up a Kota was always going to be taken out of the voting equation and sent to exile. The only thing uncertain was which Kota it was going to be. They effectively evened out the voting numbers for that one tribal council, and then negated the loss of a tribe member with the extra Kota.

The best case scenario for the Fang members in a straight switch-up should have been 4-4. The way it actually was handled made it an absolute certainty Fang would have the majority on one tribe. The way it played out is that Fang had the majority for that vote (4-3), lost, voted out a Kota, and was rewarded for their loss with another Kota to vote out at their leisure (4-3 again).

Not that I think it was "rigged" for any specific person, but it was designed in a way that gave Fang a definite advantage.

Please, I never once used the word "rigged." I was talking about manipulation in order to create more drama and interest.

I agree. An interesting statement from Corrine was, "I'm going to be a bitch, and I'm going to own it." (Paraphrasing here.) I think her character was crafted into a tool to use for drama before the endgame, because the Fangs were probably just getting along and not providing inner drama.

So there is a bit of excitement happening before the endgame, despite being basically outnumbered and useless to anyone's strategy, Corrine has been given weight as a force in the game for the "underdogs" to overcome.

IMO, TPTB do not change things on the fly, they have a script that they follow pretty closely. The script has to be somewhat flexible to take into account "injury removals" (ie Penner), and "outright quitters" (ie Krazy Kathy). But I always wondered what would have happened if the Cook Islands survivors forced the merge when the mutiny happened.

IIRC, Candace and Penner mutinied when there was 12 players left. What would have happened if Yul, Becky, Ozzie, and Sundra decided to follow Penner and Candance to the other tribe. The players would have forced a merge at 12 players.

My recollections of the Cook Islands is vague and I might have my facts wrong, but if it went down like I think it did, TPTB may have not been prepared for the circumstances of a forced merge by the players.

But Fang only had the advantage on one tribe, as you noted; on the other tribe, Kota had the advantage. If Kota had lost that challenge, they would have absorbed Sugar (or any odd member that had been sent to Exile). There's an element of chance to Survivor that one can't account for. When that chance seems to be favorable we call it "luck."

It may be true that the producers change things up to make them interesting, but to do that on the fly would be labor-intensive and at cross purposes with the real workhorses of reality tv, the writers (more on that in a moment). The production crew for a show like Survivor is huge and I doubt that it's easy to make changes when it involves dozens and dozens of folks who are all working on schedules made far in advance and working to deadlines that are already intense. JP has already said that this series had more than the usual problems with receiving props and sets, with living quarters for production staff, and as we saw, finishing Ponderosa on time. If it was hard enough to deal with unexpected but known problems, why would production, especially this season, attempt to make changes on the fly for dramatic purposes when you can't actually direct the outcomes?

That doesn't mean that the skeleton of the show isn't created while keeping certain things in mind. It is likely that they make plans keeping many things on mind, including the pace of the shows, and switches designed to throw kinks into the game. But given the realities of chance and opportunity, they can't know how good a season it will be until the 40 days unfold, and they won't know how great a season it will be until the writers get to work.

While it would seem to the viewer that what is happening is evident, it's really not. The producers (much less the camera staff, production staff, game developers, support staff, etc.) can't see everything that is happening in real time; the amount of footage is enormous and while certain events are landmarks in the story--winners of reward and immunity challenges, who goes to Exile, who is booted--everything else is simply a myriad of actions and interactions. These "stories" come alive when the writers sit down and start crafting narratives out of the footage, picking and choosing what and how to make "dramatic" and "comic" and "endearing" moments. There has to be a foundation, a context, for these events to happen within that allows the viewer to make sense of what they are seeing--and that foundation is created postproduction by the WRITERS.

When you say that the pick em was slanted towards Fang, that's only because of the actual numbers that Kota and Fang had going into that switch, which could NOT have been known previous to the prior TC--who knew that one of the tribes would lose challenges so often? But I think you're arguing that the production staff intervened because of the numbers, giving Fang an advantage. I argue that if this was a last minute intervention it still did not guarantee Fang an advantage, as the results of the pick em were two tribes that had Fang members, and it's not clear that the actual picks--in terms of challenge abilities or gameplay acumen--could be accounted for and guaranteed to be in either tribes favor. In fact, there were some smart decisions on display, which went against the surface assumptions of who to choose.

In the end, I think that the pick em was designed in a way that just happened to give Fang an opportunity--not an absolute advantage--and that's how the game is always designed to allow for opportunities and advantages that change and shift depending on the actors themselves.

I think the issue is more WHEN do the producers decide on certain manipulations. They are definitely allowed to do pretty much anything to the game, and the contestants are aware of that. It just seems like some things that happen could have been added into the game as it was going on, not in the original game plan.

For example, the second tribal switch could have been added when the producers noticed that Kota was heading for a clear majority at merge time, which would make for a boring season end. I don't think it's wrong for them to do something like that - especially since the way the tribes were formed was by chance after that - but it does seem like something that was added later on.

Exactly!

They can decide when they are going to manipulate and if it's necessary, that's my take. And Jeff is very aware of what is going on every single day. We know this because he knows exactly what to ask at TC and who to ask.

Back to Gabon - People have paid so much attention to the gamer Ken, and his partner Crystal, that Matty is getting lost to us. We also have Sugar, who is being obviously edited to be this lovable character. We do know that she is hated by Corrine and Randy. I wouldn't be surprised if she is also hated by Charlie and Marcus, it just hasn't been shown.

My bet is going with a Matty, Sugar, Crystal final 3 with Matty winning.

Show me some proof that the producers are changing their plans mid-game. Otherwise, I call BS on these conspiracy theories. I firmly believe that logistics prevent changing the plans mid-game in any substantial way.

Fang is outlasting Kota, and it's silly to claim that Kota outplayed them or that Fang did absolutely nothing to deserve it and just had success gift-wrapped and handed to them by the producers. They've earned their place.

I don't think that Kota being in the power role at merge would have made for a boring season end. While they may have, indeed, booted off the Fang right quick, I doubt that the Fang would have gone down without a fight, and I, personally, would have loved to see Marcus, Charlie, Randy, and Corinne (although, if, as you argue, the twists had not happened, possibly also Jacquie, Ace, and Dan) would have fought it out to the end. How would or could the "better" "smarter" players be anything but more interesting than what we have now? And really, watching Corinne claw her way to F2/F3 or over Randy would be a joy to see. I would have liked to see how nonleader Charlie would have dealt with Marcus at F4 and vice versa. Sounds good to me, although I'm pretty happy with what we have, too.

And I guess that's my point. The throw of the die begins with the random 18 people getting together, the weather, how hungry people are, injuries, boot orders that shift and realign alliances, romances and petty prejudice. There's always enough going on that you'll never know where the drama will come from. Manipulation is being used to mean real-time producer intervention: it doesn't fly with what's been asked and answered for 17 seasons. There are very few changes from the original outline that starts the 40 days, and what changes there are are because of production needs, not the needs of the writers.


Jeff is basically a group therapist who has a flair for drama. He has interviewed several times that he is not prepped before TC and does not view dailies. He does, however, become part of the cast and it is his instincts and perceptions that lead him to ask questions of the different tribe members. The TC runs much longer than the few minutes we see, at least an hour and sometimes more, which not only teases out some of the the tribal issues but also reinforces what we have already seen in the show. Why does it seem that Peachy is so good at sensing the undercurrents of the tribe? Because the editors and writers have made sure that TC reinforces what they have already laid out, and if JP uncovers something in TC that's intriguing, I'm sure the writers can just go back to the footage and pull that story in. The story we see is written after everything--everything--is said and done.

I actually think that JP is a very, very good host and after 17 years JP now hosts to the story that he knows can be told (which is why I am finally at peace with him being part of the cast, and impacting relationships by what he says and how he says it: his role is unique, but still it is a role to be played). There is absolutely no reason for there to be someone else feeding him lines about what's happening. I'm certain that at the top of the season he views the various HII, so when it comes up, he knows if it's a fake. Someone else organizes the votes so that when he reads them, his understanding of tribe dynamics is fresh and filtered through his own JP snark. It's work, and JP has to keep his head in the game just like the cast does for those 40 days. That's what a host does.

I agree with most what Moonmarked said. I don't think Probst takes an active role in seeing what has happened at the various camps, but I do think he is somewhat breifed in the activities. I think it would make a boring TC and bad TV if he didn't pursue some of the hot issues at camp.


edited because there is big difference between "do" and "don't"

Exactly. Even though I like the way this season is going, who is to say that if it hadn't went this way, the season would be boring? It could even be more interesting. Why would the producers waste energy manipulating the game to favor any team when there would always be drama. This is the basis of reality shows - people create drama.

This thread is pretty frustrating to read because everyone's going around in circles. Tribal switcheroos are always going to happen and they're always going to add in something new every season to spice things up. Some people are always going to get screwed and some are going to benefit. Life's not fair and neither is the show. Fang doing well is luck plus some good decisions and gameplay. Kota not doing well is also due to some bad luck (but I really don't think it's REALLY bad luck) and some stupid moves. It's just like how utterly pointless it is to say that successful people aren't all that awesome because fate gives them all the good luck and those other guys there in the corner got screwed by fate and so on. It's not math, where you could add up the total amout of luck this guy got versus what the other guy got, then add or subtract points for any good or bad play. You're just going to give yourself a headache.

To some extent, I think if something is a hot issue, it comes up without much provocation. JP starts TC with some open ended questions--he sees the tribes almost every day, and he observes them at moments that we don't, including their interactions at challenges, as they work together (or not) on strategy, how they interact as they win or lose reward, and as the winners claim their rewards; he sees the tension during immunity challenges, and who sits out and who seems to lead (or not). He has a lot to work with just from his interactions, and a few well-placed open ended questions combined with astute and perceptive listening to what is and isn't said frames the content of the TC. A good interrogator doesn't know what the answers will be, but is good at getting folks to talk.

Do you think all the twists and turns are plotted out ahead of time? Do the producers manipulate the happenings for maximum drama or is it all created in editing? Discuss here.

I'm having a hard time figuring out how "manipulating" the game would somehow be viewed any differently than "rigging" the game. Let me be clear, I don't think that anybody is asserting that the winner is chosen, and therefore the game is rigged. However, I think that the type of manipulation that is being discussed would also run the producers afoul of game show rules, even as a true rigging scenario would. Therefore, I don't think that any manipulation (let's merge the tribes at 10 players rather than 9, because we need more drama, for example) occurs on-the-fly unless there's an unforseen circumstance like an injury or insanity withdrawal. I really don't think the producers are allowed that kind of flexibility; else I suspect you'd see many more sore-loser lawsuits than only the one from Season 1. I do think the producers are allowed flexibility when the unplanned happens, perhaps adjusting or changing challenges if props do not arrive or are broken. I think the manipulation is in the editing alone; there's plenty of drama available with the hours and hours of footage they've acquired.

The only time I've heard where the producers had to change the original game plan was for Palau because Uulong lost every single immunity challenge. I had heard that originally the producers were not going to merge the tribes, at least not till the very end, and just kept letting the tribes compete against each other, and get smaller and smaller. But when Uulong lost every single IC until only Stephanie was left, they had no choice but to do a merge.

Makes me wonder why the don't try that again, but have the 'back up plan' be this tribe switch/pick-em thing that keeps evening the tribe numbers out. At least give it a try until they are down to like 5 or 6 total.

I'm not saying that I firmly believe the producers change their plans mid-game. I think that they make a plan before the season starts, but occasionally modify the plan or add additional twists because they can't predict what the people will do up to those points. So for this season, they could have planned out the first tribal swap for sure, but then added the second. Or maybe the second was going to be a third schoolyard pick but they didn't want to guarantee Kota would be split equally. In the recaps Sara M mentioned that the log roll challenge looked as if it were built for tribe vs tribe, and I agree that little changes like that could be added to the overall game plan as the producers desire.



I shouldn't have said boring - I meant more predictable. While there could have been crazy drama, from what we were shown it looked like the onion alliance would get rid of everyone else and then work through itself. Personally I wanted (certain) members of Kota to make it further.

Wait - Jeff doesn't watch the daillies anymore? Season 1 - he did, I think, as well as 2. Then I remember him saying he didn't, and he's sometimes appraised, but he went back to watching some of the daillies if something REALLY juicy happened. Or something. I can't remember if that was during a commentary or what not. But I thought he went back. {To watching them}.

Also, it's pretty hard to say that "THIS WILL ALWAYS HAPPEN". Because you know there might be a season{See Palau} where it didn't. It being the switch. There has only been ONE Outcast (thank God). Only been one Fake Merge (where they all were living together and THOUGHT they merged I mean - which, I think they should totally bring back). Even with the stupid idea of Final THREE - you would have though since it started they would always do it. Not so, as Micronesia didn't have one [Where I had fully cried, foul, foul but they had always had planned it to be a final 2 that season.].

So. no I'm again maintaining that they know what they're gonna do when they do it and then edited to make it as awesome as possible. Because you know; that's how they do :)

I absolutely think that the second switch up, or at least the timing of it, was something that was added. It seems as a screw you to the players, who thought for sure they going for a merge, and it was a chance to shake things up and make a seemingly boring season into an interesting one. And it worked, didn't it? I lost count of how many people have said 'now this season's interesting!'. I don't think they did it to benefit one player, as rigging would mean, and make him the winner, but it was a second chance to Fang, and they took it. The clip show really made me certain of it.

I might be crazy, but I could've sworn there was an interview with Probst and/or Burnett during one of the earlier seasons where they talk about how the season is planned out. They said they have the option of when and if they use the tribe swap.

I'll try to find it, unless I was just dreaming.

I agree with this completely. To me it doesn't sound at all unbelievable. I don't believe they want the game to go too far in one tribes favor.

I also think that the producers and (especially) Jeff Probst may regret layering the upheavals on so thick this season. It created a really backwards reward system that I don't think they intended or would want to repeat.

I agree. Or even if the second switch-up was planned, I think it was interesting that they followed it up with an IC that was essentially an individual IC but that had weight for the entire tribe. Otherwise, the Onion in Fang could've chosen to lose, as they were discussing, and Matty or Sugar would've been out. Perhaps the individual aspect of the IC was there to give hope to someone from the Fang tribe (like Matty), newly outnumbered with the switch. Maybe it was made into an individual competition after compliants from Fiji's ouster of Michelle or the way Peih-Gee and Jamie did use a manufactured loss to change the numbers. I'm just saying that it was interesting that they did a challenge relying on individual willpower rather than tribal strength, and that effectively squashed out the "lose on pupose strategy" to gang up on the new minorities.

Very possible. It seems like both switch situations were geared towards giving the "underdogs" (I just call them losers) a chance to gain some traction. The very specific way the first switch was designed guaranteed an otherwise impossible Fang majority on one tribe. Did they plan the switch in advance? Probably. It's pretty standard. But the way the switch worked may have been used to give an edge to the perpetual losers (obviously not a big enough edge, since they threw a couple more in there).

I'd be interested in reading more about this. Nonetheless, having optional plans still suggests that there is a plan and that changes are not done on the fly. In other words, the producers might say if one tribe drops to X numbers, then there will be (or not be) a tribal swap. To me, this continues to suggest producer intervention because of producer needs--certain challenges can not be done with certain numbers, or too many people will have to sit out to compensate for unbalanced tribes, unforeseen incidents like illness removing a player, or weather, or even because a challenge has to be scrapped because of safety, etc.--not because of writer, or narrative, needs. If this happens, then that happens means that the producers are still working towrds a preplanned outline of events. Anybody know whether the writers are on site? I would doubt it, but...

According to The Secrets of Survivor Revealed (10/07/08) there are upwards of 75 staff people at each challenge; to do a tribe swap and change a challenge would require advance notice and by that time, who knows if an interesting new story has begun to emerge back at camp that would be aborted because of a producer intervention? It still seems more likely that the time-consuming benchmarks of the show--reward and immunity challenges, tribal councils and the start of the jury--are planned in advance. I can see where tribe swaps may happen in order to meet those benchmarks. I can't see such a large production--with several hundred staff on location--trying to do anything on the fly just because. If you read through that article, you'll see again and again that producers try to intervene as little as possible, to ensure that participants are competing on a level ground. To change-up anything--to tamper--for perceived shaping of dramatic narratives goes against that ethos.

The drama is built in to the production schedule, and heightened by the real actions and activities of the participants each season.

An interesting bit on TC votes:
That's consistent with JP interviews that he doesn't order the way the vote will be read--the votes are organized by the producers who are watching the live footage of the voting confessional, which JP can not see.