I brought the posts above over from Marie Osmond's thread because I think we've reached a point in this competition, more than in any other I've seen, where it's a competitive horse race! I think with the exception of Mark Cuban, it's going to be a SHOCK to see anybody reach the bottom two and an even bigger one when our "big dogs" start being eliminated.

I agree with missmaisydaisy that JANE's dances are too "controlled" (and stiff and starchy or too prim.) Like poor Mel B, there's a forgettable quality to them, with the exception of the Tango but that was the circumstances more than the dance, imo. MARIE's got more humor and I guess excitement in her dances but it's ALL coming from her personality, not her speed or grace or skill. I think her dancing is a bit stodgy or matronly, and doesn't stand up well enough to win this thing.

HELIO, to my mind, is getting worse and worse. I couldn't believe his head-jut last time and it took me out of the dance, and his Jive was a step down from Weeks 1 and 2. I just feel like he came out too strong and our expectations got raised, and he can't come through. CAMERON I bet is a one-dance wonder, and I'm not sure his skill improved so much as the choreography made a quantum leap and he kept up, partly because he could show off his musclely arms.

SABRINA, like Helio, came on too strong, and contrary to the judges, I think her first two dances were better than her last two - and I can't imagine anything comparing with that sparkling Week 1 Cha Cha. And her outfits have gotten progressively worse - again, the Cha Cha dress was cute, imo, and the others have been bad to ghastly (which I don't get because she nearly always looks great in the rehearsal clips.) I don't think people are "connecting" with her very much - I think there's a lot of outright dislike or hatred of her, reasonable or not, and though her dancing really is great, I don't think she has enough of the likeability factor. Unless those little Cheetah Girl fans are a stronger force than I give them credit for, I think she won't go the distance and may even be a shocker elimination fairly early on.

Apparently MEL B and MARK C are the bottom two. He deserves to be because he can't dance - he's stiff as a board and not as fetching as Cameron, who also has robo-voting soap opera fans on his side. Poor MEL B. I think her fans are past the obsessive hyper-voting stage (unlike Sabrina's maybe) and she's mostly unknown to the 45+ folks (and this show's demo's run old - average viewer age in the early 50's). She's a delight but I'm not sure that it translates to all the demos either - some say she's hard to understand and she's got more British "cheek" than maybe most people are used to? I'm just trying to guess her lack of appeal here - I love her to death but I'm not sure she's "white bread" or relatable enough for the masses, if that makes any sense.

So I pick JENNIE GARTH. She can manage to look EXQUISITE without being so "perfect" it's off-putting (if there's any credence to that Jimmy Kimmel theory.) She's shown an amazing arc. She fell, and got back up and came back to triumph. Her dancing is EXCITING. Derek's choreography, to my taste, is wonderful! He's sweet and charming, and when he propped her up and supported her so delightfully, I think he became a fan favorite in his own right. Jennie seems so humble and surprised by good scores -- look how she always turns to her pals with a shocked look. When asked if she could win, she refused to even venture a guess. So she's got (1) the looks, which I think are more important with women than men but matter for both; (2) the likeability; (3) the arc of improvement; (4) the skill; (5) the BH90210 fanbase; and (6) WOW has she ever developed the performance! Without that last one, I wouldn't have picked her, but after her Tango and Paso, I think she's the one who'll win it.

So to answer my own question (and would somebody please suggest to me a better thread title? because I apparently SUCK at that) -- I'm going to predict the elimination and winner: Next out, Mark Cuban; then Mel B; then Jane; then Marie; then Sabrina; then Helio; then Cameron; ending with JENNIE GARTH as the winner. (But I'm none too sure of the order of elimination there in the middle - I kept Cameron along time because of the soap opera voting bloc - have no idea if that will pan out for him, though)

I think Dancing With the Stars usually also wins the 18-49 demo in its timeslot.

From TV Programming Insider in reference to last Monday's ratings:

"ABC danced its way to Monday victory, with a first-place finish in both total viewers and adults 18-49."

I find Cameron the least enjoyable- if I want 'hot' I find the male pros much hotter. I would rather hang on to the women and dump him and Mark.

I think a lot is going to depend on Monday's dance.

All we know for certain is that Mel has less fans than Mark, Jane, and Marie. I don't think that Mel's fans voted for Mark to save him, or that her fans forgot to vote for her because they thought she was safe, or other theories like that. That's how big her fan base is, period.

I have no doubts that Mark's going home on Tuesday... but who's going to be in the bottom 2 with him!?!?

calli, that's great about the 18-49 demo's. It was last season that I read that the average age of a dwts viewer was 54. And last season had similar total-viewer totals. Maybe more old people watch tv? Or maybe what I read was wrong. In any case, I wonder if those oldsters vote as much as the other age groups? Certainly not texting or online voting, so they may not matter as much as younger cohorts.

mary262, agree wholeheartedly. I don't find Cameron remotely sexy or even good looking. His eyes are so beady! And he reminds me of Ian with that unattractive hyperactive needy thing going on. The pro's are the eye candy this season, I absolutely agree. It's another reason I want the women to stay and stay!

And peaches, good point. I'm anxious to see if the fans rally to save Mel from the bottom 2, but if they do, who in the world will be in it with Mark? My prediction was Jane, but it could be ANY of the others and I wouldn't be shocked -- except Jennie. Now that would blow me away (if she were in the B2.) But you're right -- a lot does depend on the dance. I seem to be forgetting that little detail, lol - that somebody could do better or worse than their to-date performances. Some of them, I don't think they're capable of much better (Mark/Marie/Jane/Cam) but some, especially Mel B, could blow everybody away with a dance, in her case it would prob. be a Latin number.

I wonder if Maks can even choreograph a stunner? I know that sounds silly after seeing that Las Vegas thing he does -- but I can't remember him ever blowing me away in a dance, while the Hough/Ballas kids do all the time (+ Cheryl and Kym). But then, I haven't been watching and keeping up all that carefully. Somebody else should judge choreo styles other than me - I'm like Bruno and look for the wow factor and don't care much how it's achieved (and I love speed.)

I think most viewers find Mel B. very appealing and very likeable but since this show could well be their first introduction to her, there is not the prior connection and loyalty in place that would translate into needed motivation to make the effort to cast a vote for her.

At least not without a very strong dose of the judges shoving her down people's throats. As they are doing, for example, with Helio. He also did not have that strong of a recognition factor coming in but he is being artificially propped up with such over-the-top praise (scripted, IMO) as -- You make me glad to be alive... and Watching you dancing is like watching the sun come out... Even paraphrased it's gag-inducing hyperbole.

Amen on Helio. I hated his last dance. At least Len pointed out his head jutted out so far -- am I the only one who was bothered by that? It drew me completely out of the dance and I couldn't notice anything else. Just ghastly.

And are they really gonna let him get away with wearing jackets for all the hip-movement dances? That's not fair! I want to see if Julianne has figured out how to get his "little Brazilian hips" to move! Maybe the WD-40 (or the henpecking) did the trick.

I agree that this is the first season I can't even guess who is going to make the finals. Just because we have mostly people who are pretty good dancers and pretty sizable fanbases. Usually in the past you can pretty much guess from the get go.

I know who I would like to be in the finals, but I don't think it will necessarily happen. I would like to think Jenny has the momentum going in the right direction if she can have another stellar dance this week. She's had great dances the last two weeks, the improvement arc and she's someone I think both men and women would feel comfortable voting for. However, the judges and etc. still don't seem to see her as a spoiler to winning this thing.

We've already seen Mel's fanbase didn't show up last week, so I don't have hopes for her. Also if Jane remains soft and pretty without showing versatility, I don't see her in the finals either.

It seems like Sabrina and Helio are both being set up for the finals, though I personally don't want to see Helio there unless he improves greatly. I also don't think Sabrina will win. She's being more set up as a runner up.

But I think there are two major spoilers that I can't predict and that is both Cameron and Marie. Cameron because I fear he is bringing in a large vote. In my world I'd like to see him gone next after Mark, but he has got the soap star thing going and after his much improved performance this week I fearl it will make all his fans feel justified in voting for him. They are also setting him up for the improvement arc. I can see him sneaking into the finals.

As for Marie, I don't know because I also tend to think she brought in a large fanbase of her own plus the fact that she has surprised a lot of people with her performances. They tend to be fun and light and memorable. She could easily be a spoiler.

I clearly think TPTB want a female winner this season and given what msrayrudd wrote (with which I agree), I might not be surprised if the winner was Marie...she's perfect in many ways (OK, I agree she's not the best dancer, but bear with me), but 'perfect' in the sense that TV producers love, esp. since I think they're trying to move away from only a male, young-ish celeb winning:

-- She's female, of course.
-- She's over 40 with kids and a not so perfect body (which Jane has despite being over 50) which every woman in America can relate to and appreciate
-- She's funny/self-deprecating (some folks hate this, I know, but this is what has apparently endeared her to so many)
-- She's attractive but not so much that she threatens women (whereas some women might find Jane's stunning beauty a bit threatening - she kinda has a more perfect image - hubby, kids, body, looks. I like her, but just sayin'...)
-- She's had tough times in her life:severe post-partum depression, 2 divorces, child star transition to adult star, etc. Except for the celebrity part, many can relate to the rest and the fact that she's gone through all that and kept a keen sense of humor.
-- And she has a handsome, charming and very likeable partner who she has great partnership/chemistry with.

People LOVE all that kind of stuff (usually!) so we'll see how far she goes. I think she could make the final 3, at least 3rd place.

Of the two of them - she and Jane - I think Jane's dances are kinda forgettable (not that they're not lovely, but they're all the same; she's a bit too prim and proper, so far...) and I think if one woman past 40 is going sooner than later, I think it will be Jane. She doesn't have as many of the attributes that TPTB loves (see above) but she will get further than any woman past 50 has in the past (I don't think any made it past week 3, have they? If so, she's already achieved that and if Mark C. goes this week - please God - then she'll have gotten even further and rightly so).

Lastly, I adore Julianne, but something about her this season bugs. It feels like she's upped the saccharine level or something, I dunno, she's not wearing well me on anymore. Now her brother? Love, love, love him. Fab choreo, quiet and unassuming, really puts his celeb in the spotlight. Seems like a great guy. I think Julianne is probably just as sweet and nice as she has seemed, but something is off this time. Maybe it's Helio - maybe he's not performing like she thinks he should.

We agree on a lot, msrayrudd, except I think they have more riding on Jennie/Derek - and I think there's less support for Marie. I don't know if I think they banked on Jennie from the start - but when she came back from the fall, and her dance zinged, I think that changed their minds. Well, I really think they were hoping for grand results for all three of the Hough/Ballas kids from the get-go, that youth demo riding on it and all.

I think I'll hedge my earlier prediction and say that there's a good chance they're gonna move heaven and earth to get the three kids in the final, but a lot depends on that factor I never seem to remember -- how they do from here on out.

I'm right with you on Cameron. I just don't know. Only about 2 or 3 million people watch All My Children, but he has another show, So You Wanna Be a Soapstar, and the soap opera folks are used to polls and figuring out how to vote multiple times. But again, that's just the online and/or fanatical 10 or 20%.

Shoot this is too difficult. Probably easier to pick the next President.

ETA a response to missmaisydaisy, that's interesting and I'll think about it. I honestly think the old men in suits running this thing don't want a middle-aged female victor, they want a young one (Jennie mid-30s or Sabrina at 23, though I agree they're setting Sabrina up as the runner-up like Joey Fatone - ringers don't win.) And I don't think Marie's fans are as voting-sophisticated (multiple email addresses and aggressive/persistent multiple-cell-phoning and all that.) I even think a lot of older people are just as prejudiced against other older people as everybody else, sad to say. But the final thing is I don't think Marie's dancing is up to snuff - esp. Latin, and I think the comparison with the female pro's and Jennie/Sabrina/MelB will be noted and work against her. Like you, though, I'd be thrilled if she won. It would be good for the psyche of women -- I just wish she was a good dancer to boot so that part would bother me.

In my mind, Sabrina is this season's Stacy, which means she will end up 2nd or 3rd.

Helio = Joey Lawrence, meaning he's a nice guy, he dances pretty well, and he will also make it to the top 3 or 4. If he turns into this season's Apolo, beloved by one and all, then he can win it. But I don't think he's as much of a draw to the texting teens or an established fanbase as Apolo was plus he and Julianne do not seem to be creating the sparks Apolo and Julianne did.

Jane is Vivica + Leeza + Rachel Hunter, which means she should do better than all of them. But if she's tired or cranky (and she has the potential to get cranky, since she's used to being the big cheese and they're really not deferring to her at all, what with Carrie Ann and liftgate and the scores), or if her mother dying just takes the wind out of her sails, her support may wane. I see either her or Marie going out 4th or 5th.

Cameron has the potential to be there till the end, depending on how faithful his soap posse is. Even if not as many people watch All My Children every day as watched Dr. Quinn in its day, it's also on Every. Freaking. Day. and Cameron's character is also on Every. Freaking. Day. I have not seen anymore ads for him during the soaps, but I don't know. I Wanna Be a Soapstar is negligible. I don't think very many people watch it, plus it's on Soapnet, which not all households have. He's Kelly Monaco - the sluttiness and truly dreadful dancing + Ian or Harry Hamlin-like okay-but-a-little-awkward skills. So on that basis, I see him within the top four or five, and then bowing out.

What Jennie has going for her is the Apolo/Julianne factor -- whether they're shipping them or not, people like good partnerships, and this partnership has the potential to be special, with a root-for factor because of the fall-down and all. Jennie is Ian + Willa + Joey Lawrence. Because of that, I think her support may be soft. But if she and Derek continue to inspire affection and enthusiasm, she could take it all.

Marie = Jerry Springer + George Hamilton - Leeza, which should mean she's not long for this world. I don't know, though, because the show seems to be pushing her and her Osmond and QVC doll fans may be very loyal.

Poor Mel needs a major spark from the Spice Girls visit this week. Unfortunately, I think many viewers base their opinions on some of these floaters (Jennie, Marie, Jane, Mel) on what they see in the interviews and how the judges respond. I think they may now see Mel as a low-class truck driver trying to act like a lady, because of what Carrie Ann said (which struck me as a total Mean Girl Keep the Wrong Girl in Her Place comment) or as a loser, because she was B2 already. I've already been voting a lot for her, and it clearly didn't help, so... Not sure whether there's a fanbase to light a fire under or not. But DAMN, I wish they'd let her dance last or something to promote her better on the show. Maybe the Spice Girl video package will do it this week. We can only hope.

As for Mark, well, I see him as a vain and ridiculous idiot and I have no idea why people are voting for him when he annoys me so badly, but there you are... He's made it this far, so maybe he will knock off Mel and Jane and Marie and REALLY piss people off. Or maybe he will siphon off some of Helio's support, which would be okay with me, too.

I can't see anybody but Mark and Mel in the B2 next week, unless Jennie goes back to Sour Face Girl or Jane telegraphs that she wants out. Maybe Mel will even be the one going home. We're due for a bit of a surprise, since Wayne and Floyd leaving was pretty predictable. Mark going this week is what everybody thinks will happen, so I think it probably won't.

Buh bye, Mel, and buh bye DWTS this season pour moi.

Btw, I think it was getting better ratings last year. It won Monday night, and it won its time slot Tuesday, but NCIS took the night. With House back in the lineup, I think ratings may be leaking a little more each week, especiallyconsidering the bloated nature of the results show.

I doublechecked the ratings. TV Guide had NCIS winning Tuesday night, but Zap2It doesn't say what DWTS's Tuesday numbers were, and Futon Critic has DWTS ahead of NCIS.

Some numbers, comparing last year to this year:

For the performance show, this week in 2006 had households at 13.6 and a 21 share, which was #1 for the night, with adults 18-49 at 5.9, also #1. And this week, this year, had households at 12.7 with a 19 share, good enough for #1 Monday night, but adults 18-49 got a 4.6 and #4 for the night. (That doesn't tell you the average age of their viewers, but it does tell you that 4.6 of the 12.7 rating was adults 18-49, which means that 8.1 was somebody else. Or, one-and-a-half times as many people who were NOT 18-49 were watching the show.)

For the results show, this week in 2006 had total households with a 12.6 rating and a 20 share, good enough for #1 for the night (Wednesday), with adults 18-49 at 5.0, and #3 for the night. This year (on Tuesday), it got a household rating of 11.4 and a 17 share, adults 18-49 got a 4.3 and #2 on the night.

I'm sure there's some difference because it was Tues-Weds last year and Mon-Tues this year, but if you compare Tuesday to Tuesday (13.6/21 to 11.4/17, or in the 18-49 demo, 5.9 to 4.3), it's even worse.

Not sure what any of that means, except that the ratings are definitely down. Still, if everybody else's are also down, what do they care?

I love your equations, arlykeeno, and I think you're spot on about everything. It does seem like Mel B has been hard done by, but I keep trying to remind myself that they gave her the Big Kahuna when her height didn't require it. Though maybe age-wise and body-type-wise he was "the fit." Tony/Jonathan were needed for older women; Derek's too skinny for Mel - and though his age doesn't suit Jennie either, she's less voluptuous than Mel, so it's not quite as, well, weird -- so maybe their valuation of Mel wasn't why she got Maks, who knows?

Partly, I have to blame her dancing. Which I think is good! But Sabrina had that killer first dance that was sooo good she was practically set from the get-go, first impressions being so important; Jennie had the fall and the comeback; Jane's mother died; and Marie has surprised everybody w/how funny she is and how she can do comedy during her dances. Being less known, Melanie HAD to have an early blockbuster dance (and might could make a comeback if she had one now), and she didn't have one. All her stuff sort of blurs together for me, like Jane's. OK, maybe even very good, but not stunning.

ETA: Something just hit me. You know age (both in 20s) and size wise (both super skinny), Josie Maran was a better fit with Derek -- and Jennie was a better fit with Alec (both in 30s and somewhat heavier than the other two, though still slender)! I wonder if that's occurred to poor Alec. How the mighty have fallen. And isn't that evidence that from the beginning, they wanted kid Derek in the finals with kid Marky and kid Julianne, or else they would have given their BH90210 "proven fanbase" star to their Season 1 Pro Winner? Hmmm.

Elsa, you make excellent points and you might be right about Jennie and I lean way more to her than Sabrina (who will likely make top 3 or 4, but won't win).

Jennie's mid-30's, pretty but not threateningly so, solid marriage with adorable kids, nice figure (but a bit of a pooch tummy which every woman - at least over 40 - can relate to and that makes Jennie more "one of us"), tough time with that one dance, but damn if she didn't fight her way back (everyone loves an underdog) and she's paired with a fabulous partner, Derek, who seems like the consummate gentleman who has great choreo skills and makes her look fab. Given that Marie's dancing is not - so far - as up to par as Jennie's, I could see Jennie being in the finals for all these reasons if she keeps upping her dances and stays calm. I'd like to see her confidence rise a bit, nothing in the Sabrina range, since her vulnerability makes her very endearing, but just a bit. I do love how excited she gets when they do well and how stunned she always seemed. That's very charming and another thing people like. So if Marie doesn't win (probably won't), I'd love to see Jennie win, even if she's not past 40, at least she's mid-30's and bringing it to the dance floor along with the younger ones. If Helio/Julianne win, I'll likely die of sugar overdose...just too cute. Apolo cut the part of Julianne that I find too sugary.

I'd still like to see Marie in the final 5, at least. And I wish Cameron would go after Mark. He does nothing for me - boring, boring, boring in looks, personality and dance-ability.

arlykeeno, love, love, love your equations and analysis! So spot on.

arlykeeno, thanks for the ratings info. It's definitely going down, but what they attribute it to, who knows? I was thinking that the huge emphasis on youth this season had something to do with the phenomenal success of Apolo and Julianne. Well, wait, I don't know for certain that it was phenomenal -- but I've read in more than one place that Apolo received a HUGE amount of votes, more than twice as many as Joey, and more than any couple ever had received on the show. And I figured that got those suits thinkin' they could improve things with more Juliannes - and Corky Ballas says he called the producers and told them he had two more just like Julianne, only they were men, lol. And the rest is history...

OTOH, I would think that shows like this (maybe every kind of show there is) is hot for a while and very soon starts slipping until it dies out. I've read that people think the show is losing its ballroom touch, but I watched Season 1 and Kelly Monaco and Joey McIntyre, neither one, was all that proficient in standard ballroom stuff. I guess John O'Hurley was. But there was still the glitzy-ness of Kelly's skimpy outfits, the tricky lifts and splits were there, the same pop music. I just don't know if the standard ballroom emphasis is what would help the show, I really don't. It still seems to be "in its prime" but you're right, it's slipping (at least this year compared to last, autumn to autumn.)

ETA: Oh yes, missmaisydaisy, Apolo helped so much to counterbalance the saccharine. Ai yi yi this year -- I can't hardly watch their little confessionals anymore. Too much cuuuuute. Although, looks like a little tension has crept in. I don't think Helio is as stoic as Apolo :) And I'll say no more... for a few minutes.

My thing is I think they didn't at the beginning and what I meant by Jennie not being on people's radar to win as yet, as in the few interviews I've seen with judges and/or celebs over who is going to win, Jennie's name is still off the radar. Which I find a tad odd personally. Like Carrie Anne was on Extra this week and she had Cameron, Marie, Helio and Sabrina all as possible winners, but Jennie seemed a non entity. Then again, this is Carrie Anne.

I'm not even sure Jennie has herself in the frontrunner category, which I admit I found cute this week. When Sam asked her after their 10 and she couldn't even really answer. Derek had to answer.

But that being said, I do think the show changes their minds during the show if they see it going another direction. For instance my common example is that I don't think the show expected Emmitt to be such a big hit his season. They were clearly surprised that he could dance so well and early on everything was all about Mario vs. Joey L. It was only once Emmitt showed he had the fun support and was clearly making the finals that the show changed its tune.

How this pertains to Jennie is that I think they are starting to realize that she might be a dark horse and they certainly aren't going to complain if she makes it to the finals, partly because they want to play up the Hough rivalry. There is a story there especially if Helio also makes the finals.

The only thing I'm fearing is the final three being the Houghs and Mark Ballas. It's not that I don't think they are talented, but I'm a little leery of seeing the three young'un there because I think it's going to amp the show in thinking that they need to go for the barely 21 set in the future and it is going to turn into the Julianne/Mark/Derek hour.



Ratings wise, all shows are going down. It's more a sign of the fact that less people watch network tv these days than any sign of this show being in decline. All things considered DWTS audience is still very healthy, but it's generally true that season to season ratings in general are down. It also has to do with the fact that people have changed the way they watch tv. They watch shows online and they Tivo/DVR. In respect to the Tivo/DVR generation there has been a lot of talk about how to count these ever changing types of ratings.

Wow, that's so close to my own thoughts, including the Sabrina/Helio/Cameron order still something I can't figure out. I don't like the dances Julianne is putting together for her and Helio at all. They are not exciting and I hated their Vienese waltz. Sometimes she is spot on, other times I feel she is trying to get around the spirit of the character of the dance for no reason, or she, like Jonathan, is being cartoonish. Maybe she's not mature enough to have faith in the quiet dances. Or patient enough.

There's a lot of suspense with Jennie because it's - can she keep it up? Derek can, can she? She was very impressive in the paso because of how much her technique had improved - it was so evident in her core, her arms. Her toes are pointed, her chin is up, and these improvements appear internalized. I don't see her counting. I was going to say I hope when they do mambo or other Latin dances that Derek configures them with a lot of face-to-face and partner dancing instead of side-by-side. I think Jennie is like a sponge, she is absorbing not just what Derek is teaching but how he moves and carries himself. So I guess the closer they are together when they dance, the stronger she'll be. But then I recall she was quite strong doing parallel movements with Derek in the paso, even when not facing him. I don't know if it's confidence, but her commitment to what she's doing when she dances is better than confidence. :) Also, they don't rhapsodize about their partnership. Both seem quieter than some of the other pairs. But you can tell it is killer and they have to be doing incredibly well in the rehearsal studio in order to produce what they have in the past two weeks. Audiences like rapport, whether it is messaged to them or they can see it for themselves. Derek's body language around Jenny is very relaxed, as when he reached down and pulled her up and said "Yes you can." She may have an insecure streak but I think she gets down to doing it and is non resistant anyway, instead of Derek spending too much time in celeb emotion management. When he grabbed Jenny to sweep her around the floor and show the judges her feet stayed on the ground, it was a very fluid piece of spontaneity. So I think she's a responsive partner.

I give Cameron a little more credit for his paso than it just being a one-off - he initiated a lot of movement and seemed pretty confident doing the minimal leading required of him. There seemed to be some technical advancement from him in that performance, not just a good style match. He danced the number as a whole, too, none of the internal counting, and he seemed to add a certain finishes that indicate comfort out there. He just seems like such a lummox to me, but something about him may make him Edyta's best partner yet. I just can't figure out what that something is. It's not his dancing talent, but her choreography is less gimmicky than any other year. Perhaps it starts with her, and she's become a better teacher/choreographer, and that's why he's her best student/celeb?

Cameron may pass Helio because of his improvement arc.

Cameron and Helio get praise and votes no matter what they do. They'll probably make final four, at the least. I think Helio will win, no matter how he dances.

Mark's probably going next. If not him, then Marie's probably going next.

Cameron will stay because of his AMC fans. I will say that Tom did not think Apolo would be in the top four last year around this time. Things change quickly and I think Jennie/Derek can take it further. They just come off more low key, but I think that is part of what is engaging about them. Besides, I would love to see Derek win.

As for the ratings, yes ratings are down this fall. I do think if the show went back to once a year, there would be more of an event feeling to the show. Similar to what FOX does w/AI.

But again this isn't really a fair comparison. Pretty much ratings are down for ALL shows, including other big hits like Grey's Anatomy and the like. A lot of it is the way people view television has changed. People don't watch live so much. We live in the age of Tivo/DVR and watching online and etc. They are still trying to figure out how to sort these ratings so as to give an actual depiction of viewing habits.

I also don't see any reason to think Marie will be out next. She's never been in the B2 while two of the others that remain have. Maybe if she has a bad week this week it's possible, but I think others will be out before Marie.

I was just watching tapes of the past few shows and if they awarded the win solely on who got the best costumes and hair/makeup (for the celebs), Jennie Garth would win hands down. The costumers and hair/makeup folks clearly love her...she has won stunning, flattering outfits with equally well-done hair and makeup. I'd say Jane Seymour's done well in this dept. too while they've put Marie in some frumpy outfits (with frumpy hair to match). Mel's OK with some outfits, Sabrina - well, not so flattering.

But Jennie? Looks stunning every time she hits the dance floor.

Agreed! This is the first time I have seen a celeb w/always the most flattering outfits. Despite all the talks of people thinking she comes off rude (I am not one of them), she must be good to the hair/makeup/costume folks. Since her first cha cha, the accessories, dress, make up have always been winners.

I could well be proven wrong but it just strikes me as exceedingly clear that Sabrina and Helio will be the final two. And that they have been positioned for that by the show's producers from the very beginning.

The factor that will come into play in a big way in determining the third postion (which is very important since it will probably be three couples who will dance in the finale and three couples who will do a lot of the follow-up media appearances) is, IMO, stamina. That and ability to absorb choreography quickly.

Since they will soon be required to learn two dances a week, this could eliminate some of the strong contenders for the third spot.

That is why I think third will go to Jennie. She has the stamina and she also comes with a dance background. So she should surpass Cameron (physical problems and busy schedule), Jane (back problems) and Marie. I think Marie could be a strong contender but I'm not sure she will be able to handle learning two crowd-pleasing dances a week. JMO.

I agree on the Sabrina and Helio as the producer picks from the get-go, and some of us had Joey Fatone and Apolo as the F2 from the get-go last year as well. The minute they announced Apolo I thought he would win. I wasn't sure if Joey was a spoiler, or if Laila's status as the daughter of a legend could overcome that, but I really thought it would be Apolo.

This year, I think I called Cameron, Sabrina, Jane and somebody else -- not Helio, but not sure who -- for F4 when they announced the slate of celebs. Now I'm not so sure about Jane, but I still think Cameron will finish just about 4th and Sabrina will be in the top 3.

ETA what I posted pre-season:



I had the right idea, just not precise enough. But 11 and 12 were right, just flipped. And if Mark Cuban goes this week, then 8, 9 and 10 will also be the right group departing. I now think Marie and Helio will do better than 6 and 7, and Mel and Jane will do worse than 3 and 4. I think (1) Jennie, (2) Helio, (3) Sabrina and (4) Cameron will be your top 4, maybe finishing in that order. Marie will be 5th, Jane 6th and Mel 7th.

Ideally, the producers probably want the three (Mark, Julianne, Derek) in the final three. They have that flashy style of dancing that is appealing to the audience. Though I appreciate Derek's less flashy approach. When the show begins, the producers definitely have their favorites. As mentioned in earlier posts, season 3 was suppose to be Joey vs. Mario. Emmitt came out of nowhere and surprised everyone. I think last year was suppose to be Joey, Laila and Ian. I think Apolo was the wild card and part of the harsh comments from Len was to keep up the appearances of a competition. It seems TPTB realized quickly Apolianne became popular.

This year, they probably want Helio, Sabrina, and another woman (obviously from the girl power push). I think part of Sabrina getting the 30 maybe because she is not running away with the competition. I think she is hurt by that whole polarizing ringer, personality element plus the fact she came out so strong week 1. Her other dances are blah to me after that cha cha.

Helio w/Julianne seems designed by the producers to be in the finale. Remember Indy Car racing is on ABC and nowhere near as popular as Nascar.

I agree that the person who best adapts to the two dances/week will make it into the finale. Looks like Sabrina (similar to Stacy, Mario, Joey) is being set up to be leaving 4th or 3rd. I say, Marie and Jennie are the wild cards. Though Cameron has the soap fans, I think his dancing may have peaked. Please no more reminders of how busy your schedule is Cameron. You are starting to sound like Mario.

missmaisydaisy



Maybe I misunderstood, but I seem to remember Laila saying that she had quite a lot of imput as to what she wore on the floor. She would tell wardrobe what look she was going for, they would draw it up and go from there. So, maybe Jennie just has better taste and a better sense of what will flatter her than some of the others do. Or, maybe it's the reverse - maybe Jennie just lets wardrobe have their way with her and the rest are more specific as to what look they'd like. Either way, I agree that Jennie's coming out on top.

She did. Emmitt also said during S3 that he gave wardrobe a lot of input in terms of the style of clothes he was going to wear (though he said he left the color choices to Cheryl).

That's a good point, Waltz, and I don't know why I've been assuming that she'll necessarily hold up. But you're also right that their rapport is killer!! And he's very engaging as a sweet, energetic, fun young guy, who I think might, on his own, capture the notice of even oldsters (like meself, as Len might say.) He's just so nice but he's peppy and not boring (and I liked his jaunty little cap in practice.) They have all the tools for a win unless she falters. If she doesn't, I don't see anybody else with as many plusses. I also think the producers DO want a female winner, despite propping Helio.

Which reminds me, I've been thinking about the wonky scores last time. I think Len (maybe all three) knew that there are several "favorites" who are in vote trouble -- Mel B, Helio, and even Sabrina -- especially Sabrina. I watched and watched and no way did Helio deserve 9's and Sabrina 10's (though maybe she does for the technical work but it didn't have the pizzazz or the great overall "look" of her earlier Cha Cha and Quickstep and it didn't have the pizzazz/look of Jennie's Paso either, so I think 9's would have been appropriate. And Helio's head was HORRID! And I think Helianne (uh, sorry) were off enough to deserve 8's.

And I have watched and watched Mel's Waltz and I swear she's clumpy. It's the first thing a British reviewer said of Mel's Waltz and it's the first thing that occurred to me. She's not graceful right after a turn - she looks off-balance. She doesn't walk/glide/dance gracefully between "moves" either -- she's just, well, clumpy clompy and needs that lady back who teaches gracefulness. At least in this one dance (and I know I've noticed it before, at least some.) The British person said it looked "under-rehearsed." I agree with that too. I think Carrie Ann's 8 was accurate but the other two were higher than they would have been if they didn't think she was in fan-vote trouble.

I think they have a general plan -- they're worried about "favorites" going home too soon -- it's embarrassing and it's been on their mind big-time because of a similar problem last season on the British version, a problem so serious they completely revamped their system because of it. Some excellent dancer they backed went home due to those silly fans being daft -- I imagine that's how Len sees it. I think there's shenanigans going on BUT they're gentle ones -- if the dance is horrible, they won't inflate as much. Like, I guess you could "technically" justify Sabrina's 10 -- the only technical "flaw" I saw is that once she reached up to grab Mark's hand and missed it, but then I watched again and he doesn't take her hand, he takes her wrist right after that, so maybe that was the plan and it wasn't a glitch after all. But the dance didn't seem as good as her Cha Cha so the 10 just seems too high to me.

All that said, I want the kid prodigies in the final too, and I'll be real disappointed if we lose either Derek or Mark before then. Those three come up with routines that excite me, and the only other one that really has is Anna/Albert's first dance (the stripper thing.) I wish Mel B would excite me but I don't think she's good enough -- and Cameron will have to prove to me that he can look elegant and not be stiff or have bad posture in the standards, and I don't think he can do it. But if Helio doesn't straighten up (esp. his head!) then I'll be rooting for anybody left except him, sheesh.

I think they need to preserve a horse race, to do that, they need some of the stronger dancers in the finals even if they don't have a lot of fan support. It may take some strategizing to get that done. In Season Two, when DWTs used the ordinal system, I always suspected they would strategically overscore Stacy at key times - such as the semi-finals - to make certain she got into the finals. If she wasn't there, the winner would have been a foregone conclusion. My sense was always that not only Drew, but Lisa and Jerry were outscoring her with fans, so she needed the kind of judges' scores that, even if her fan vote was in last place, still kept her an ordinal above somebody else.

I think they start off with a general idea. I really think Sabrina is their stalking horse. They don't want an all woman finale because they want the suspense - will a woman finally win? They've chosen Helio as the one to make it a gender competition through to the end. If Cameron starts really delivering, they may quit overscoring Helio and let Cameron make it a battle of the sexes.

I am less sure about their eagerness to have a Hough/Hough/Ballas final. Brother v. sister would make a good sound bite, but they're not the celebs. The male/female final two since season one - will a woman finally take home the trophy!! makes a good soundbite.

The one the judges appear to have "chosen" doesn't usually win. That's why I'm dubious about both Helio and Sabrina.

Excellent insights, Waltz, but I'm expecting the final to be a "final 3" like last time - otherwise I think there would be too many weeks (though maybe I've got my dates wrong.) Then they could fit the two faux "chosen" (which like you say, could change midstream from Helio to Cameron -- they both have "shows" on ABC) with the real underdog winner (I'm still thinking Jennie.)

They may also think Jennie winning would quell accusations of favoritism because of the others' involvement in other ABC/Disney shows. I guess Helio wouldn't have that burden though his type car-racing is shown on ABC so maybe. (Hey, maybe Disney's Soapnet shows BH90210 reruns? But that's not as big a deal as AMC and the Cheetah Girls)

This week should be a telling week. Can Cameron continue to progress? Especially when he is dancing latin that involves, as Len says, "good hip action". Sabrina and Jane get to address those criticisms and have to dance a slow and fast dance, respectively. Can Jennie continue w/her improvement and will Mark finally leave?

Sabrina will stick around for a bit because she has that local hometown support and tween vote. Whether that will outdo Helio or Jane or Marie, we'll see. Again, I do not think the ringers win. They just keep it interesting and competitive.

Yes, there are 90210 reruns on SoapNet, which Disney/ABC owns. I don't know how concerned they are about pushing a star on a show that's in reruns, though. If somebody who was on Ryan's Hope or Dallas shows up on DWTS, you will know it's synchronicity.

Mark Cuban has only been in the bottom 2 - once - and that was the first week when he was in a huge tie for 21 points. Last week he had the lowest judge’s score, but was not even in the bottom 2.

So what makes everyone think he is vulnerable this week? Remember - this show is not always about who is the best dancer. Obviously Mark Cuban has acquired a solid fan base along the way. I give him my votes – because he is entertaining to watch. He works hard – and has no ego about his dancing. And he is doing this for his own enjoyment – not to jump start a 2nd rate career.

He is also very relatable - most of us going into the show would dance more like Mark Cuban than Sabrina Bryan.

I agree. I also wanted to add that we don't know what the vote totals are each week. Mark could probably be the 2nd or 3rd highest vote getter and we would never know. You made a good point about him being in the bottom when there was a 5 way tie in the first week. Mel was in the bottom and she had a high score. Wasn't she like 3rd overall? Yet, she ends up in the bottom.

I personally think that Tuesday is going to be a shocker.

I also think this Tuesday's results will be a shocker. Each week, people have predicted Mark Cuban - but he has not even been in the bottom 2 for the last 3 eliminations. I also agree with the previous post - Mark Cuban could have been one of the highest vote getters - we just don't know.

I actually think there will be an upset with one of the female dancers – since there are still 5 remaining. And at this point, each will have to do something really great to stand out.

She was tied for 5th out of 9 people, which puts her in the bottom half based on judges' scores.

(1) Sabrina had a 30 (12.8%), (2) Jennie, Helio and Cameron each had 27, (11.5%) (5) Marie, Jane and Melanie had 26 (11.1%), (8) Floyd had 23 (9.8%), and (9) Mark had 22 (9.4%).

So all we know for sure is that Floyd's votes did not exceed Mel's by 1.3%, that Mel's votes were at least 1 fewer (yes, one total vote fewer) than Marie's or Jane's, and at least 1.7% fewer than Mark's, and did not exceed Cameron, Jennie or Helio by .4% or Sabrina by 1.7%. If there were five million votes, that would mean that Mel needed 85,000 votes more than Sabrina to overtake her, or 20,000 more than Jennie, Cameron or Helio, and Mark needed 85,000 more than Mel to overtake her. But I have no idea how many votes were actually cast.

I'd like to see Cameron catch fire and become a contender. This show is my first exposure to him and I've become a fan. He's very likeable, charming and hard working. And I like the fact that even though he and Edyta were very stressed out and worried about putting together their dance this last week, Cameron never once appeared to get testy and take it out on his partner. If he had, I'm sure the producers would have been more than happy to show it in the rehearsal footage.

However, I remember reading that Cameron wore a brace as a child for a condition that I think has left him with some permanent effects and physical limitations. So perhaps he can work around these only to a certain extent and they will at some point (maybe sooner rather than later) curtail his time in this competition. I don't know.

Additionally, when comparing Helio to Cameron and their chances of winning, it becomes necessary to compare the strengths of their respective partners. And here, Helio comes out far ahead. JMO. Much as I like Edyta and admire her as a dancer, her choreographic abilities fall far below those of Julianne.

If Cameron had Kym or Cheryl as a partner then he might give Helio a good competitive run. But with Edyta, I don't see it happening. Although, hopefully I'm wrong because I wish it would. JMO.

Unless one of the women is forgettable, falters, or does something to offend viewers, I think Mark is leaving this week. He has fan support, but most people probably don't want him to outlast most of the talented dancers. He also won't have the boost of being in the bottom two.

They may use tonight to try to tell us the men are overtaking the women. They've done everything they can to prop up Helio and Cameron.

As far as propping up Helio, I'm a little concerned about just how far they may still go to do it.

It's possible that Helio may not be pulling in as many votes as they had hoped. Or perhaps they've noted some sudden downshift for him in the voting pattern.

Because DWtS sent Helio and Julianne out to Entertainment Tonight last week to promote the show. They were doing this little shtick where they asked each other questions. (It appeared to be scripted. At least to me.) One of Julianne's questions to Helio was something along the lines of -- What do you like best about dancing with me?. To which Helio replied -- Among other things, it gives me a chance to put my hands all over you.

Whahuh...?? I'm still cringing.

So if this exchange were indeed scripted for them by DWtS, goodness knows what direction the show may be going in to try to drum up votes for these two.

I don't know if Cuban will go next, but I put him, Jane and Mel B at risk for the red light this week. I wonder about Marie's somewhat unexciting waltz, but I still think she's safe for now, Helio too.

With the red light, I've learned that if you are ever under there, you are not going to win. John O'Hurley was under it once, Kelly Monaco never. Joey Fatone was under it once, Apolo not. Joey Lawrence was under it, and when the three semifinalists, all of them tied in the judges' scores, stood waiting to hear who'd be eliminated, it was Joey Lawrence. You may be under it and then spared the next time or so, but you are not winning.

Mario and Emmitt were never under the red light. That's why I take Mark into consideration. It may have been a close thing the time he was under the red light. Floyd, Mel, Wayne - maybe others are also pulling in fairly low viewer votes, it was simply his exceptionally low scores that week that landed him under the red light, but he remains at risk even with higher scores.



Edyta's stepped up. I thought the superman choreography was pretty musical. Every once in awhile she pulls one of those out of her hat. For example, the quickstep she put together for George Hamilton was charming and worked really well "of a piece" even if the quick step content wasn't that dense, it was still pretty "dance-y", not this hodgepodge + posing/stretching.

I especially liked the turns she did during the final drumroll as Cameron strolled towards her. And that finishing twist/knee-slide really fit, more than Edyta's tricks usually do. I'm not underselling her this time, maybe there's a new Edyta in town.

Ew to the Helio/Julianne piece. He's got a fiancee', no?

That would be great. To be able to see Edyta bust out into the top tier of pro/choreographer on this show. She's always been one of my favorites. She seems to be such a truly lovely person. And an example of where stunning outer beauty is matched by her inner beauty.

Also, very interesting observations on red-lighting being a reliable predictor (to date) for the winner's circle. I'd never picked up on that before.

As far as this week, I'm really looking forward to Jennifer Lopez's appearance on the Results Show. I'm curious to see whether or not Lopez will agree to share the spotlight with DWtS pros. At least for one song. I'm sort of leaning to expecting her not to do so. Coming in instead with a full production staff as a way of avoiding it. Lopez seems to have a very strong sense of her own "ascendent placement." I could be wrong, though. Maybe she'll be very flexible and cooperative.

Whatever -- Jennifer Lopez will, no doubt, put on a fantastic show. I think she may well end up delivering the most memorable guest performance on the show so far.

__________________________________
(Yes, Helio does have a fiance.)

Edyta isn't particularly consistent though unfortunately. Every now and then she comes up with a great routine, but unfortunately I always thought that Joey L. would have had a shot at the title with perhaps a different partner. I love her as a dancer and as a person, but she doesn't seem to be the most driven of the pros and she tends to be too gimmicky (though in her favor with someone like George Hamilton it was hard to be otherwise).

Ew to Helio and Julianne. I don't want to see their faux flirting. I hope, hope, hope they get the first dance slot tonight. They need to even out the order and I don't think "Helianne" has gotten stuck there yet. As much as people think the show is pushing Sabrina, she has had to at least dance first.

Jennifer Lopez is at least performing once with professionals. Both Cheryl and Edyta have noted on their sites that they will be performing to J. Lo. Don't know who else is in this routine, but if Edyta than possibly Alec.

Another betting roster dated 10/22/07 from BetUS.com - but I think they may have come out before the performances:

To Win Outright Dancing With The Stars
Helio Castroneves
+125 (Bet $100, get $125 back)

Sabrina Bryan
EV (I think this means even odds - bet $100 get $100)

Cameron Mathison
+750 (Bet $100, get $750 back)

Melanie Brown
+800

Jane Seymour
+1000

Jennie Garth
+750

Marie Osmond
+1000

Mark Cuban
+1500

And a quick note - I'm not feeling too good about my pick to win (Jennie) the whole thing after this week. I thought she was back to being too nervous and tentative tonight. Alas. But I felt even worse about Helio. Tonight's top 4 for me: 1-Mel; 2-Sabrina; 3-Cameron; 4-Jane

I agree about Jennie being too nervous, but I don't think she ever had a chance to win. I only hope she and Derek don't go this week.

Helio has so many fans, he'll make it to the finals no matter what. Meanwhile, the Cameron propfest keeps on building.

I think Mark's going tomorrow, with Jennie in the bottom two beside him. That will shatter her nerves even more.

I think if Jennie makes it past this week, she might still be a contender. TPTB want a female to win and she kinda fits the overall arc that they would want from a female winner. I just hope they stick around for awhile because I love seeing them dance together and love Derek's choreography.

Right now, the season is getting dull because it seems to be a sure thing Sabrina will make it to the finals. Not a fan of that, but would prefer to see Mel or Jennie go to the finals instead. It looks like Helio, despite his recent stumbles, still has created a sizeable fan base to push him forward.

I think Jennie and Mel have a chance to add to their fan bases so they are still my wild card.

Latest betting odds (good through 10/29/07 - figures are from two different sites so the odds may differ - one was "sportbet.com"):

Sabrina, 5 to 4 or 120 (pays $120 for $100 bet - I think)

Helio, 3 to 2 or 270

Mel B, 4 to 1 or 285

Marie, 21 to 2 or 460

Jane and Cameron tied, 10 to 1 or 700

Jennie, 13 to 1 or 1250

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I'll stick with guessing that Jennie will win but I wish she'd kept up her momentum from the Tango and then Paso Doble nights, and the nerves showed up again, so I'm probably wrong. Helio crashed but I bet his cha cha next week will bring him back up.

Who'll go home next? I'll say Jane (just because she was in the bottom two - I really have no idea.) Who I'd rather see go home? Marie, Cameron, or even Helio.

I say Marie and Helio will be in the B 2. Anyone else noticed that they didn't say "in no particular order?"

I was wondering why they had those particular four up there at the end. My first impression was the same as yours -- Marie and Helio are the other couples in trouble.

But then, I started wondering if they might put the fan favorites up there at the end to make it more dramatic for more people.

I hope your theory (and my first impression) is correct. Marie and Helio are worse dancers than the rest (including our B2 survivors Mel and Jane.) Cameron's bad too, imo, so I hope Mel and Jane make it longer than those three, but I can't help remembering that Billy Ray Cyrus made it to week 8.

I firmly believe that the announcements of who are safe are in no particular order (except for Sabrina who is one of the first 2 called safe every week. Blatant favoritism there imo.). There seems to be no rhyme or reason of the order in which contestants are called safe. Well, last season I noticed that often, even the more popular contestants were called safe towards the end. Doesn't mean much imo.

For all we know, Helio & Marie could be the biggest vote getters.

Who knows who'll be bottom 2 this week? Really, it depends on how the dances go. The judges critiques could serve to rile up fans too.

As an Helio fan, I'm glad that there's really no reason to think that it's a given he'll be bottom 2. The fact that so many people think so really makes me wish all the more that they go out there and kill next week.

Who I'm hoping leaves next is Sabrina. She seems like a sweetie and everything but her dancing leaves me cold. It does nothing for me and I just don't enjoy watching her regardless of the fact that she's technically the best and all. Everyone else though, I like, so I'd rather see all of them longer.

I saw a poll in some In Touch or Us Weekly on the stands this week, where they asked readers who should win. I was surprised to see Jennie/Derek had 46% of the vote (Sabrina/Mark and Helio/Julianne both had around 25%). The poll may have been taken around the time of their paso, so they are probably less popular now, but I had no idea they'd ever do that well. It makes me wonder how far they could go if they manage to pull out another great dance this time (instead of another samba).

I would assume it would be around their paso, but their samba wasn't horrible either. If you go on the scary ABC boards, there seems to be a bigger push for Jennie/Derek. More so that you have more critical comments which seem to come out when they feel their star is threatened.

As much as I want Cameron to go (as he is the next worst dancer, imo) I know he still stay. I think the next two leave wil be Marie and Jane. Helio has a fast dance thus will get the improvement arc. Sabrina, well, she could do the stand still dance and make it to the finals.