Well, I was 27 when this show started and I'll be out of the demo when this season ends. I'm not concerned at all about the ratings because like it or not, if they stay at 4 million and the CW doesn't go under they will always be a candidate for renewal because the CW STILL doesn't have anything that brings in their numbers. None of the shows are gaining on Smallville...Smallville is coming back to the pack. Whether the demo's don't fall in the tween girl range doesn't mean anything for Smallville. the show has never been about bringing in the demo's that D.O. craves.

2 things will decide Smallville's fate. Whether or not the CW survives, and TOM WELLING. That's it, imo. Nothing else matters.

I'm still sad that Smallville is doing much better than Supernatural. That show really is the most under-rated show ever and IMO, one of the greatest shows ever. I am really hoping that we will not get a season 9 of Smallville, but I want a season 5 for Supernatural. Somebody SAAAAAAVE me!

Yes, it is. Last episode was the most awesome episode of the season. And that's considering the episodes before it were awesome in their own right.

I'd like to see what SPN could do if it weren't in the most competitive timeslot on television at the moment. A less competitive time slot, and a chance to build an audience there...yep, I'd be interested to see that. Sadly, I can't think of anywhere else for it to go. It wouldn't pair well with the CW's Monday-Wednesday shows. Friday is a no-go. And the CW sold off Sundays. So I guess SPN will keep duking it out with Grey's Anatomy, CSI and The Office.

As for SV, I get the feeling people are in a "wait and see" mode. They've tuned in to see how the changes will effect the show. Some interesting things have happened so far, enough to build up some interest, and keep viewers tuning in to see how it goes. And if they can start delivering, I don't see why it couldn't hold steady in the ratings for a while.

IA.And it's no surprise that 'The Graysons' are about a young guy dealing with problems.Of course it still needs to be considered that the WB is behind it but right now the demos suck terribly for SV.

It's a shame, really. It's a show that really does try. Maybe Mitch Pileggi will give it a nice boost, no matter what else is on. I mean, Skinner! To me, that feels like a casting coup. But I'm an X-phile, so I'm biased.

As far as SV, I don't know whether Maxima is going to help next week. The show's been around for years and any comics fans that would be drawn in by her must know how badly the show screws up mythology by now.

Comparing CBS to the CW is like comparing Wal-Mart to Ann Taylor. They have totally different business models and ways of making money. One is mass market/volume, the other makes money on a narrow niche. Like NBC use to make upscale tv viewers their primary market so advertisers trying to reach those consumers would go to NBC and they could charge well for shows with lesser overall ratings (e.g. West Wing) if they had rich viewers. Unfortunately, NBC has lost that market.

I wish people from the "Mad Men" board would visit here because understanding ratings is about understanding Madison Avenue and there are tons of Mad Ave people over there. Ratings are the currency that tv networks and ad agencies trade in. I can't say I get it all. It took me a long time to understand why the CW, which has always been quick to spin any good news into a major victory, didn't give a crap if Smallville did well in overall viewers and with young men. It kept happening and it was especially notable after "Justice" when they failed to issue a press release on it, even though "Variety" and the Hollywood Reporter commented favorably upon total viewers and the male demos. In contrast, the CW's only press relase for Smallville that season was when it did well in young female demos for "Promise" even though it only got so-so overall numbers for viewers and typical numbers for the 18-49 demo.



If that is all the info you got, you would think the CW would boast about "Justice" and "Labyrinth", the two episodes that did the best in overall viewers and the 18-49 demos. They didn't. They boasted about "Promise" because of info we didn't have access to - how it did in 18-34 female demos because that is what fits in with their business plan and how it measures success. The CW overestimates the demos its shows will reach and then has to make it up to advertisers with ads on other shows, having all their shows target the same audience makes it easier for them to meet their promises. If 90210 starts tanking, they can bribe their advertisers to stick around and conintue to give them their business with ads on the comparable GG which reaches the same audience.



No one will like hearing this, but the CW spending all the money promoting 90210 and Gossip Girl makes sense because despite their overall viewer numbers, they are providing the CW with the young female adult demo numbers they need to meet the quotas with the media buyers. Also, they skew young so they can age a long time and still fall within their target demo *if* they can develop a loyal core audience.

However, they are probably not yet good earners because they air on the less competitive/less profitable nights of the week. Thursday followed by Wednesday are the most expensive night of advertising. I don't know the price disparity for ads from what a Monday ad or a Thursday ad can charge so I don't know how much Gossip Girl or OTH earns the CW compared to SV and that is the most important thing. Ad Age use to post those figures online. I don't know if they still do.



Studios care about the age of the audience. They want young movie goers because they are more likely to watch a movie repeatedly. Movie studios track the ages of audiences leaving movies opening weekend to see the age breakdown - they want to see lots of young folks bc to them young folks = repeat busines. Males are more likely than females to repeat, but young movie goers of both sexes are more likely to be repeat business than older viewers of either sex. "Titanic" for example was boosted by repeat tween female movie goers. As a result, Hollywood studios generally don't make many movies for middle aged adults. Many articles about the success of "Sex and the City" brought up this issue about Hollywood ignoring potentially profitable markets (e.g. women over 34). Actors lie about their age bc there is less work for them as they get older as Hollywood cast young people in leading roles. Older actors become supporting characters.



The lack of a replacement is a big question. Right now, The CW has nothing better, however, it ordered a pilot that they may hope will be a suitable replacement and it is clear to me that Dawn wants all the inventory from the old WB network off so she can have more opportunities to build a hit that she can take credit for developing. She just has to be careful about it bc WB owns half of the CW and they're already unhappy with her choices.

Your mention of 4 million viewers as being important reminded me of a post on the pifeedback board. A poster went thru a big comparison of the overall viewer numbers for different CW shows and then ended it with Which undercut the comparison. And then someone else replied they got the problem which is that SPN skews old, but their solution being that the CW go with it and create an older audience night runs completely contrary to the direction the CW is going.
http://pifeedback.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/6...m/375107461/p/7

Massena1, thanks for all the data and analysis. I think it really is a complex, multi-variate problem and you've done a great job on breaking down the data.



I think this is exactly it. They'll get some Zac Efron wanna-bee as Dick Grayson and at least two or three frenemy girls to squabble over him. And Dawn says "Genius!" again. Really, the theory that the spirit of Dawn Stiles has inhabited Dawn O. seems plausible most days of the week.

This bears repeating! Thanks so much, Massena1, for making it understandable.

You can't make me like it (Dawn's business plan), but at least there's some logic behind it.

Ask and you shall recieve! Smallville pulls in $54,323 dollars for every 30 sec. ad this year. In comparison, ANTM nearly doubles that with $103,714.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/wp-content/uploa...cost-100608.pdf

Thanks for the list Nation, I find it fascinating. I also find it fascinating that SV gets less than 90210, OTH, or GG. And there are things I really don't get how Fringe of all shows gets so much per half hour. I think it's an OK show (nothing great) but according to that list it's pulling in the most of all network shows and it's only had like 3 or 4 episodes.

Random Nation - THANK YOU! See, doesn't that make a big difference in how everything looks? I remembered that Gilmore Girls use to likewise charge much more for ads even though its ratings were similar to SV's and sometimes lower.

We've noticed how the length of the SV episodes have been getting shorter and shorter and that's bc the CW needs the extra money to pay for the show. I'm not sure how stuff like Stride or Accuvue is handled and whether those in content advertising dollars go to the show directly or to the network. I'm thinking the show and if so, they would help pay for Fx. Anyway, the show I think is now down to 41 minutes of program, there are usually a few CW network ads during it so let's say there are about 17 minutes worth of ads. 17 x 108k = $1,836,000. That is how much the CW earns from the regular ads for each episode of SV. If they pay more than that amt to the show then they're taking a loss on it.

ANTM makes over $3million dollars in ad revenue for a program that is much cheaper to produce.



CTUN - I can explain a little bit. Those prices are what media buyers agreed to pay for ads for those shows at the upfronts. The networks inflate their expectations for these shows, collect money for ratings they will be unlikely to actually produce and they worry about making good on those promises later. Let's say the CW talked up 90210 suggesting they may get up to 4 million female viewers 18-34 every week, but promised advertisers buying 90210 ads, a minimum audience of 2.5 million women 18-34 for each episode, if the media buyers believed the show might end up closer to 4 million than 2.5 and they'd get a good deal by locking in ads early for the whole year, then they'd be willing to pay more for those ads, banking on the possible windfall that the ratings would be higher. If the ratings came in lower, then the CW would have to do make-goods and give those advertisers ads on other shows that would hit that market they wanted (GG, OTH, ANTM) and so the CW also took a risk selling that 90210 would fall below expectations. It's a bit like playing the stock market to me. Ad buyers hope the show exceeds expectations and they get a great deal, but they also have a safety net that if the show doesn't even meet minimums, the network will make it up to them with ads on other shows to hit that same market. Bc ad buyers WANT those ads to market their products. They generally would rather get the publicity thru the CW over a refund. SV and SPN don't fit this model though. They don't provide great female 18-34 numbers so they don't provide the CW make good inventory to give advertising customers wanting to reach 18-34 females.

Also, their ads are based on actual performance as opposed to buzz and spin. So unlike young shows that just might become breakout hits this season, it's harder to puff SV and SPN to media buyers as "steals" when all the media buyers have to do is look at their past performances to get a good idea what they're likely to do for them.

But, there are safeguards in place for media buyers in case a show does much worse than expected. Let's say 90210 tanks and fails to meet the minimums guaranteed, then the media buyers can take make goods (ads on other shows) or depending on their agreement pull out completely. It just depends what kind of deal they made. But, the idea of having other shows able to produce numbers in those demos is important to the CW bc if they can't provide the advertisers make goods (ads on comparable other shows that will reach the market they were guaranteed) then the CW has to return the money they collected for those ads and that is apparently really embarassing for a network and really bad for their quarterly reports.

Really fascinating stuff guys. I love data! Thanks.

Thanks for the explanation Massena, I find it interesting.

Does that count repeats? Because if you average out repeats that number not bad, if that's first run show's(like ANTM) then wow that low.

Uhh...that I don't know. I do know that Smallville got 4.8 million for the season premire:

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/10/06/house...r-increase/5759

The 4.8 number is with DVRs, comparing Bizarro to Odyssey (multiply raw numbers X1000)

Week/Rank/Programs/Network/Persons Live+7/Persons Live/Time-shifted Audience/% increase from Live to Live+7/Episode
WE 30 Sep 13/Smallville/CW/..............5590/...........4740/........................846/...............................17.80%/Bizarro
WE 21 Sep 12/SMALLVILLE/CW/.........4,804/...........3,916/.......................888/...............................22.70%/Odyssey

(from the same TVbythenumbers link)

Which would net:
Gained/loss (X1000) from Bizarro to Odyssey:
Persons Live + 7 Gain or Loss: -786
Persons Live Gain or Loss: -824
Time Shifted Audience Gain or Loss: 42

So, approximately 800,000 less people watched, mostly live, than last season's premier. The DVR audience is on par with last year.

I want to place me bet on what the ratings for Instinct will be, but I lack some intel. I am not a comic book fan, and I'm trying to decide if Maxima will pull in those comicbook fans who tuned into the premiere for the Justice League. I asked two different fandom friends who are comic book fans and I got two somewhat different opinions. I want a couple more to guess what I think the ratings will be. If anyone is a comicbook fan, could you give me an idea how big a "get" Maxima is? In comparison to Doomsday, Darkseid, Brainiac, Lori Lemaris, Powergirl or Black Canary where would she rate? Thanks.

IMO Maxima ranks at the bottom of your list. I'm not a rabid comic fan but I do read them and to be fair to Maxima I'll add that those I do read tend not to be Superman centric. Having said that Maxima is the only character on your list I'm familiar with only because of SV. And while I've never read a comic which featured Lori at least I know who she is.

I'm curious regarding the other opinions. Do you know a comic fan who does think she'll be a big "get"?

Even beyond the fact that Maxima herself might not be a big draw, has this been promoted really at all? It's in the official description and kind of in the trailer, but they're not playing it like they play the mythos stuff normally- the CW promos are all "Legendary Love!" and "Sex!" I haven't heard anything online really, though I mostly only hang out here.

jwm - One person said bottom of the list, like you did, and another said below the villains but above Lori and Powergirl because those two characters are not interesting at all whereas at least Maxima has previously been engaged in storylines with Doomsday and (I think they said) Brainiac so there was potential that they'd do something cool with her since both those characters are also on the show now.

I was wondering if they might be pulled into the storyline because of the superpowered female desperate for Clark/Superman tries to seduce him/trick him into sleeping with her storyline. They seem to do it repeatedly in the comics. I didn't know if this Maxima storyline might be reminiscent of Wonderwoman offering herself up to Clark as a sex mate because they were gone from Earth for like a 100 years (or maybe it was 1000 years) and he refused her out of love and loyalty to his wife. (Comics!Clark apparently doesn't have SVClark's man whore/fickle tendencies.) I'm not saying *I* see the stories as similar, because Wonderwoman is clearly a bigger deal than Maxima, and offering herself for sex is different than someone trying to force or trick him into it, but the role reversal of the hot woman begging Clark/Superman to give it up with him refusing due to his moral code seems like something they do a lot in comics so I was wondering if this might appeal to fans of those comic book stories. Personally, I find it icky and messed up to glamourize someone trying to trick another person into sex or force them against their free will into it, but they've done it a lot on SV and they've never presented it as a big deal to the victim or as something icky and wrong so I'm guessing they think it's fine. To each their own.

Eurybia - It's my impression that trailers aren't necessary for comic book fanboys. They knew Cyborg was coming without much publicity. I think they have their own avenues for comic book news and they search out such news on their own.

I don't remember Brainiac and Maxima being involved... Originally Maxima debuted in Action Comics and this episode sounds like it is heavily inspired by #651, where Maxima comes to Earth wanting to make Superman her mate because he's just about the only one in the Universe she thinks is worthy of her.

I'm jazzed about Maxima because I always thought that storyline was awesome. And then Maxima rocked in the 'Death of Superman' stuff.

But honestly, in terms of big DC myth characters, she's probably not a big deal. She's been dead for a while, and after her initial awesomeness she was written pretty terribly. I can't imagine a lot of people will tune in just for her. Only a few comics diehards, and hey, they're probably watching the show already right?

Here's my guess. Ratings will go down again for this week. 3.8 million 1.5 (18-49) 1.35 (18-35)
If I'm wrong so be it. But, it doesn't deserve better.

And in case I'm not around for "Committed" I'm ready to give my guess for that. 3.67 million 1.5 (18-49) 1.3 (18-35) and Marc Berman putting "Smallville" in the loser category that week based upon year-to-year declines.

I fully believe that Chlark fans are going to jump ship fast and furious, but unless said Chlarkers are reporting their viewing habits to the ratings people, no one will ever know and it will make no difference. I just have this feeling that Chlark fans are invisible on all fronts and so the ratings will barely drop.

Per Berman:

I have to say I am happy with that, good to see the Maxima/Clois promo helped increased the ratings from last week. The next 2 weeks should be interesting. Committed seems to be another Clois heavy episode while Lois isn't in Prey. If Committed does as well or better but Prey drops in viewership it could be a sign to PS3 what direction the fans want.



I still think the "average" viewer doesn't pay much attention to Smallville other then Thrusday nights. Beyond that the fact the show lost 2 of it's 3 leading characters as well as 1 minor character has to have some negative impact for the ratings(I can't wait to see how much the ratings jump because of Lana).



Green Arrow was in last episode though and heavily promoted. If the ratings took a big hit would Maxima be blamed for the ratings drop?



Personally I loved Instinct, probably my fav episode all year. YMMV

I dunno, as you pointed out in the "Instinct" thread Joe Viewer isn't usually checking in on-line so I doubt those people would even know which eps Lois is going to be in and which ones she's not.

In all the years the show's been on I've never seen any kind of ratings correlation between eps she is in and eps she is not... Well minus the 3 million they lost around Season 4 when they introduced her =p.

I don't believe the "Adventures of Lightswitch Nois & Clark" had a thing to do with it, since the promo monkeys have been pimping it since last fall & ratings are nothing to brag about.


I watched because of the Fever letter spoiler, (as I'm sure many Chlarkers did) my boyfriend who is a hardcore comic fanboy was interested in Maxima. His comments about CNois ~ "contrived, forced bullshyt being crammed down the throat."

Between Maxima and the Fever letter, I suspect there were some extra viewers who watched this week who will not have any reason to do so next week. The promo, coming right after a anvil laden Instinct, really does seem to sell Clois and only Clois.

Instict, IMO, took away any reason I would have to doubt that we are going to get exactly what they are selling, so next week's ratings will, I think be a good indicator for the rest of the season.

Unless something remarkably good happens in Committed, Lois being gone in Prey is too late to help create a bump...Unless the reason for her being gone is she fell Prey to Davis's dark side.

Go Dooms!

Interesting. I was going to add that at best (because I'm not a Supes reader) she'd beat out Lori & Powergirl. But only because those two are much more obscure relative to the others on the list.

I think the debate hurt week's ratings more than I expected. IMO the numbers are holding up surprisingly well so far.

Personally I thought the LA-Philly baseball game might have ate into the ratings a bit this weeks. I was pleasantly suprised to see a slight increase

Leaving aside the fact that I don't think the ratings system is accurate at all, does ship stuff really effect the ratings?

I mean, how many of the hardcore viewers have Nielson boxes? I can see how it might effect the DVR numbers, but not the nationals.

The only thing that seems to correlate is bad episode = lower ratings the week after.

It made me miss the episode, since I'm a HUGE Phillies fan. I have it on DVR though.

Yes. She is, and she is in the Doomsday storyline (and at least one with Darkseid I think) so I do think she brought some comic boys. Plus a lot of my friends had heard about the Fever Letters return, so I'm wondering if that came into play - I know some people who hadn't watched since s5 who came in to hopefully see the letter play out well for Chlark... so I doubt some of those people will check back in again.

But even my non-online brother had heard about Maxima and the Letter (not from me) so I think that explains the very marginal uptick.



Right; a lot of people who were loyal viewers (I mean buy all the tie ins, all the DVDs, have show meet up LOYAL people) I know either stopped in for the ep and checked back out, or are planning to actively check out post ep. I'm sure there are MR/KK groupies who might have tried to held on without their favs doing the same as well.

The people I've known for years (including many who were in it from 2001, people who are long term SV and Superman fans, people who sat through stuff like Chluthoropolis and MuLana and such in real time) are voicing the same complaints to me over and over: I don't know what this show is, these characters look like the characters I love but don't have their personalities or relationships, half of the main characters are gone, and it ain't my show anymore. The general consensous is that the CW finally fully ruined it, and I think that kind of shows in the ratings trends post-writers strike as it started actively turning into something that no longer connects for people I've known for ages. I personally can't say I blame them for turning out either.

Good, solid numbers. Go Clois!

It's never been proven one way or the other, IMO. The only thing that is a proven ratings grabber were the comic book cameo's by other super hero's. The fact that this episode pimped Clois has NOTHING to do with the ratings, IMO. There just isn't any evidence.

I also agree with what Teen Titan said above: that a previous week's episode could impact the present one. I believe there is evidence of this being so. But, not really of promos pimping one ship over another or even, spoilers being spilled. The average viewer knows nothing beyond what is seen on TV. The Internet and to a lesser degree, fans who are spoiled, is pretty small when compared to the total number of fans who watch SV.

And finally, I totally agree with jwm:

ETA:

I agree, SteveWright. As well as there being no real evidence that Clark and Lois are having a negative effect on ratings. If anything, the ratings' consistency seems to suggest that people aren't turning their televisions off in large numbers. At least not yet.

And if the numbers remain like this though, with little fluctuation either way, then I think it's pointless to discuss ships and their impact. For instance, if the ratings had gone down this week: would an argument be made that the Clois pimping was to blame? Maybe. But if so, I'd hope the same counter would be made:

And I'd agree again and be thankful it was pointed out.

I think the biggest factor this year has clearly been the loss of Michael Rosenbaum, Kristen Kreuk, and John Glover. However, with the new direction of the show, the new cast members, it's possible that they could get some "new" fans to add to those who remain (after the departure of MR, KK, and JG). My two cents.

How was the debate able to hurt last week's rating? It came on after the show where I am. Was it up against Smallville on the West coast?

Granted for extra ordinary episodes, such as Retconning, Lexmas or Justice the trailer may be add a lot of viewers, but I would never have the idea to correlate the viewers to a trailer. I always attributed a steep decline in viewers to the previous episode being a piece of shit and vica versa.

What if the Ollie preview was the blame for Toxic's lower ratings. Maybe people are sick of the GA. that could have been a factor with no regards to Clois.

Or the Chlarkers who Noiscotted Toxic came back for Instinct, I think some, including myself, did that.

Me too. I know of quite a few people who did. But we all got slapped back pretty firmly by PS3, and I doubt many will tune in again. I know I won't. Be interesting to see if the ratings go down or remain stable next week.

I just want to post a note for the thread in general, since this has come up both in the thread and in e-mails to me:

In most threads, talking about other fans or viewers would be considered "talking about the boards on the boards." But in this thread, it's on-topic if you're talking about how fans/viewers affect the numbers. How spoilers, promos, 'ship pimpage, etc. affect ratings (or don't) is also on-topic. All that is still about the show.

Talking about how other posters post, or analyzing or discussing the posting trends on this thread/site is still off-topic. That's about the boards, not the show. If your post is edited or deleted, chances are that's why. The board software isn't letting us type in the reasons for edits right now.

Thanks.

Mediaweek has Smallville listed as "losing steam": "Over at the CW, both Smallville (#4: 2.8/ 5, down 18 percent) and Supernatural (#5: 2.0/ 3, down 17 percent) continue to erode from one year earlier." The percentages are down from a year ago, I believe.

Smallville (Viewers: 4.15 million; A18-49: 1.7/ 5). It's not in any special categories now.

PiFeedback

I can't believe the rating increased after the fiasco that was last episode ... *sigh*

So the numbers actually improved over last week, Fever letter and all. I'm guessing we're going to stay north of 4 million on through Bride.

Personally, I'd been DVRing SV so that I could go back and watch after my kid was asleep and pay better attention. The past few episodes have disgusted and disappointed me so much that now I just throw on the CW at 8 and let it ride. The more interruptions, the better for my mental health. So someone like me is actually helping the ratings? Shit. I'd better start DVRing again and just delete the eps after FFing through 90% of the show.

Well, this episode was promoted with the implication of Chloe confessing her feelings for Clark. Though the truth of the matter more likely rests with the unlikelyhood of any Chlarker having anything to do with the Neilsens.

Good point. Might explain why some of the spoilers thus far have been extremely misleading. Could it be that information is being twisted and tweaked to lure viewers in and help the ratings?

Where was it promoted that Chloe was going to confess her feelings for Clark? No where. And actually for people that just watch the show and are not online, the promo after Instinct was showing Lois having to confess her feelings for Clark. Not saying that Clois was the reason for the rating growth

It was in the write up. Ala Trespass.



Well I know people who tuned in to see those eps which probably aren't sticking around, but who knows.



That's consistent with most everything else this year, isn't it?