How do the boards compare to last year after the finale? Do they usually remain this quiet?

Here are some of the stats that I could come up with on the KryptonSite forum:

Vessel:
May 11, 2006 (day of finale): 4,267 posts
May 12, 2006 (day after finale): 4,857 posts

Phantom:
May 17, 2007 (day of finale): 3,891 posts
May 18, 2007 (day after finale): 5,079 posts

Keep in mind though that there is a margin for error, since there were no Heroes forums on KryptonSite a year ago, and that could account for some of the posting.

In other words, it could actually be less for "Phantom"?

Thanks Craig. I wasn't expecting numbers (I didn't think numbers were possible, to tell the truth), I was just wondering what people who've been around longer thought about how things are.

Yup. Some of those posts could have been "Heroes" posts.

Much quieter compared to other finales.

Usually, after an SV finale, there's this sort of frenzied feeling on the message boards. Everyone's buzzing about what happened, and excited about what will happen next season. Even people who might not have liked a finale were passionate about it.

This season, things have seemed a lot more low-key. I'm not sensing the same general buzz and excitement.

But those are just my observations.

Craig, do these numbers include the Veronica Mars and other tv forums as well?

PS - you wouldn't happen to know if Claude is coming back next season, would you?



Ah, that's what I thought. I usually check up on the forums during my day, and it's been very quiet recently. It does not make my day go faster at all *g*

Those numbers do, but the VM and other TV forums existed a year ago, so they'd hav been factored in.

I sure hope Claude comes back next season. He was fantastic.

Just had to chime in and offer my love for the new thread name. So appropriate. Is that your creative genious at work Omar?

I know opinion of Chloiser's can run pretty low Craig but we can speak to other people and even have friends sometimes IRL =). Anyways, people don't have to necessarily be internet fans. They just have to have to know one.

Thanks -- I mostly changed it because they bounced back slightly in the finale. And because tea leaves are cool.

I also like to add that I have a whole family friends Chloisers that doesn't even know the names of the forums I post they just know that Chloe is Lois and that Lana is anoying. :p

Yeah, but last year there was no "pink script" to ruminate on message board forums. There was NOTHING in Phantom that most on-line fanatics didn't already know - and had already discussed ad nauseam. The pink script made the rounds - from TWOP, IMDb, SHH, Sweet, DTS, K-Site and BT's. If you were a SV fan, you heard about it. After the episode, there wasn't much to discuss that wasn't already picked apart for the last month. Compare Phantom to prior years. Did anybody know Clark would end up in the PZ in Vessel ahead of time? What about the Black Ship in Commencement? Or Chloe's safe house going boom in Covenant?

I'm a self professed spoiler ho, but tragically, there wasn't much to discuss in Phantom that hadn't already been picked apart. We knew about Lex being arrested, Lana's SUV blowing up, Chloe's healing tears, and even Bizarro. BIZARRO!!! Now folks KNOW the studio was pissed about that, right?

Since when has being spoiled stopped fans from talking about a finale if it was something they were really excited about?

Besides, a lot of fans stay away from anything spoilery. I know I do.

I think a problem with the finale was that there was nothing new the finale offered that we did not already begin discussing from previous episodes, completely ignoring the pink script.

* The Lex Ares project started in a few earlier episodes and this episode didn't add much to it
* There was nothing "new" to 33.1
* The big "villain" is a superpowered Phantom, who happens to be bizarre, and we know he'll be stopped by the season premiere. We also don't have new insight into what might be next year's threat
* Lana's death got no discussion because we saw the milktruck
* Lionel/MM working together got slightly more than the usual discussion over Lionel's "ambiguity"/writer's can't-make-up-their-mindedness.
* The questionable parentage of the faux!baby was already posed on this site without spoilers about it. (Mostly because it made no sense)
* Chloe's green tears got the most discussion which was, IMO, the only "new" thing from the finale that could truly spark discussion of the show's future

I wasn't around here for season 4, but in season 5 the black ship was definitely spoiled, and so was the FOS. And if the finale was good, spoilers never stopped people from discussing it, specially since so many people avoid spoilers.

There were over 5000 posts in the Phantom thread at K-Site alone. I wasn't saying that discussion was a ghost town, but those who WERE spoiled knew EVERYTHING. There was no surprises. None.

I've been watching the show since the Pilot and have been an active participant on a few SV message boards since S3. As far as I recall, nobody at K-Site or SHH knew about the black ship, though the FOS was spoiled early in the season by G&M. Like Chloe's safe house in S3, the black ship was a total surprise in S4 and kept people buzzing throughout the summer. So was the Kryptonian writing that appeared in Lionel's eyes. 'Twas all a surprise.

Other than how Clark will deal with Bizarro, what's there to discuss now? We all know Chloe and Lana are not dead, Lionel will be back, and Martha won't be returning save the potential for a few guest appearances by O'Toole. There's a few minor things like how Lana faked her own death, who implicated Lex in her "murder," and the details behind Chloe's power, but that stuff was being discussed weeks ago. It's not that discussion isn't happening; it's just been diluted. I blame the pink script for that - not that I care mind you. Like I said, I'm a spoiler ho. LOL

You are indeed correct. Apparently the black ship WAS the shocker of the finale. Wow, seeing how excited we were for the fucking SEASON 4 finale, due to a single Chloe+Lex scene in the caves and the FOS really puts things in perspective. Even though there was much distaste for yet another Clana barn scene, there was good stuff to balance the crap. Two seasons later, and we get yet ANOTHER Clana barn scene for the finale, and nothing of the good stuff. Unbelievable. So many posters from that time are gone too. :(

I'm talking about actual ratings compared to buzz *before* the episode, Craig. Which is a lot different than feedback for the episode itself. ;) People weren't talking online all that much and consequently, the ratings fell. KSite itself hasn't been as busy as it used to be (it used to lock people out after episodes for example.)



Yup. And even though prior years have had VM, I don't think that it's really as big as Heroes is.



I agree. I've been around for six years. I remember people freaking out after every finale, and a lot of speculation going on what was in store for the premiere, a lot of 'over hiatus' fic popping up, people wondering about the DVDs, et all. A lot of people getting excited for what was to be nomed for the site awards, people kicking off summer projects for their sties, and just a lot of excitement. And it's just not here this year.



Heh! And that is true, I'm the designated "Tell us what's coming up so we're prepared" person. They don't have to log on, they just have to talk to me.



I think Craig did. ;) But even knowing some or all of what's going on usually hasn't stopped things - spoilers usually generate discussion and interest in the show. Good or bad people usually *talk* about it, which is what I'm honestly not seeing a lot of, actual talk and excitement and projection about the show.



Well, I remember knowing some of what went down prior, but the other fact of the matter is that Commencement delivered. S4 needed a jaw dropping, people grabbing finale to come back from some of there episodes and arcs. Everyone knew the FoS was coming from the last shot alone - and that made people excited. If Phantom - new or not - had been amazing and riveting and all of that, IMO people would talk. People still talk about past episodes and spec about them, so I'm not really seeing a difference. I just think Phantom is indicative of the season that they aren't giving things that are making people excited and love the show.

And that's reflected everywhere; people got really pissed off at Promise, and kept tuning out and tuning out. The buzz online and general excitement isn't there, and Phantom didn't revive it. I think some people are hoping that the spoilers for the premiere will but it kind of feels like a lot of people are just waiting to see if they should stay or go.

Tonight I interviewed someone who actually works on the show and even among them it seems the consensus is that Season 6, unlike the seasons before it, really had to tie to a mythology to really lead it into the finale, and that was lacking, probably a reason why it didn't go over too well. I've just been watching the end of S5 and Fine/the virus/Lionel/etc. was all building toward that.

Say what you will about S4, "Commencement" was a DAMN good finale.

As for the S6 finale, I don't even think it's Clexana that did it in completely. It's not giivng Chloe powers. It could just be - beyond the whole "there's nothing tying it together' thing - that after six years it takes a lot to really get excited now.

I do remember a lot of discussion for commencement people didn't knew what happened to Chloe in the beam of light and discussing the posible look of FOS and what could be inside the black ship like the erradicator or something. Also in season 5 finale we got the Zod possesing Lex, Clark trapped and the Vessel kiss so we used to had a nice combo of mythology lovers having something to wait for and shippers lovers (Lexaners and Chlarkers) having something to expect as well.
In this case the little bit of Bizarro didn't delivered and the only cool thing about it was the chalk face, Lana faked death was badly done and we don't really care what happens to Lana so we don't discuss it and we all know that Clark will defeat Bizarro and go back to moping by the second episode.
Lionel drowning is not enough of a cliffhanger and if they would had a Chloe saying something like I would die for you before the tears of suckitude then maybe we willh abe more of a buzz about it an Bizalo wasn't in inminent death anymore.
So all in all they left us with nothing to discuss and just wait for the first spoilers to start discussing how much crappy the show could get.

Right, that's my point. It's a combination of missteps and a lack of overall direction (and I do think the fact that it was supposed to originally be a JL finale would of changed a lot of how things went down) that is why we are where we're at now. But that doesn't really change that how it went down caused people to leave/give up/be less enthusiastic.



No, Craig, that's what I was saying, heh. That Commencement *was* amazing and that made people really get excited about the show. I mean I remember knowing about the meteor shower and of course graduation - and there were elements that even non spoiler people could probably guess but it didn't stop it from being enthralling and exciting. Which is what Phantom needed to do, and didn't as much.



Well, I don't think that's true so much as they didn't build up to it or deliver a lot of *questions.* Lana, either way she's 'gone.' Martha is 'gone.' They already paid off the light a little bit with Chloe and EdLo. Lex is 'arrested.'

It reminds me kind of Exodus which didn't have a ton of questions either, but that felt like a big ramp up to what was going on that season and people were still really impassioned about what happened to talk about it. Where is the passion, I guess that's my question.

That just strikes me as more of the It's season six we heard when the pink script was leaked. It was not a weak finale that caused 600,000 people to disappear after Promise, and for more people to leave every week after that until Phantom. It takes something good to get people excited, and even if the pink script had not been leaked we did not get that. If they know it will be hard to get people pumped up, they why did we get Uterusville and the dullness that was Phantom? I don't want to make Al and Miles Lana, where everything that went wrong this season is not their fault.

Building up the finale is definitely important, but there need to be some stakes, some cliffhangers, some reason to compel the viewer to see what happens in the fall. Here is a quick comparison between where the major characters cliffhangers in Phantom and Vessel:

Clark: Trapped in PZ versus Fighting NotBizarro
Lex: Possessed by Zod versus arrested by Smallville PD
Lana: Unknowingly with Zod versus "dead"
Chloe: Being dragged to the ground by a group of men in the middle of a riot versus unconscious
Lionel: Being dragged to the ground by a group of men in the middle of a riot versus unconscious in a flooding dam
Lois: Unconscious and abducted by Brainiac versus dragging Chloe out of a flooding dam
Martha: Unconscious and abducted by Brainiac versus gone to DC

Or Commencement versus Phantom:

Clark: In the Arctic looking at the Fos versus Fighting NotBizarro
Lex: Knocked out in the caves, with the portal possibly still open versus arrested by Smallville PD
Lana: Looking at the black ship opening versus "dead"
Chloe: Disappeared in cave portal versus unconscious
Lionel: Seizures in the mansion with KryptoDownloaded eyes versus unconscious in a flooding dam
Lois: Looking out at the devastation caused by Meteor Shower 2.0 versus dragging Chloe out of a flooding dam
Martha (and Jonathan): Trapped in the Kent house with a crazed, gun-totting Jason Teague who has figured out the Secret and then smashed by a meteor virus gone to DC

No tension, no drama - no "Holy crap what comes next!"Indeed.

And the thing is that if a show is good uniformly otherwise then even a flawed or meh finale isn't going to totally keep viewers from coming back. But you can't do a dull finale if you've just recently pissed off a ton of people with some very wrongheaded creative decisions. Some people didn't like the finale of SPN or Heroes but I don't get the feeling they're going to abandon the series in droves or skip it next season (some might but I think most hope for a better finale next time at least for Heroes).

Exactly, Bob. Lex being arrested is not as engaging as nearly killing his father, or crash landing on an island, or being poisoned with his lead witness 'dead', or potentially *seeing* Clark to though the portal, or being possessed by Zod. It's not thrilling or engaging at this point, especially as it's not even a case of watching the JL/Chloe and Clark/whomever finally nab him for the stuff he's been doing all year either.

Lana, well, most of her finales are about leaving or being left; but Chloe usually has action comparable to Lex (moving to the DP and Metro again, going evil, 'dying', being sucked into the mortal, stuck in a riot) and that was lacking this year too. The parents usually have semi-interesting things or at least set uppy things and those weren't there this year either.

The main characters that we've been watching for six years, especially the main four who usually are the characters that promote people to post and write fic, and all of that, three of them had pretty lack luster endings. And I do think that's part of the problem. No tension is odd for an SV finale and it might be a big contributor to many of us playing the spoiler waiting game.

By the way AGENTPAT, are you the same AgentPat from SDK's blog...Because if you are, then I'm glad you are here. Always looked forward to your posts over there.

I know we're veering toward "off topic" territory but I think a lot of people may have hit some nails on the head. Part of the problem is that we pretty much KNOW how it's all going to turn out.

- Clark will defeat Bizarro
- Lana is alive - she hopped in the milk truck
- Lex will be temporarily arrested until we learn Lana is okay
- Chloe will wake up in Smallville Medical Center
- Lois will say something snarky
- Clark will reluctantly trust Lionel

There is no "what is in the ship" or "How will Clark get out" factor, really.

Exactly...the S7 premiere is basically laid out for us and is therefore not generating the hype they need to lead into possibly the last season of the series. It's a shitty lead in to a lack lustre send off, which pisses me off simply because I actually love the show as a whole, in spite of it all.

With the ever changing population of people posting in the forums and at that cross posting in multiple ones, how can comparing finales 2 years apart really prove or show anything? Unless board moderators can show the changed the numbers of who posted correspond to the exact same sample population, dropping out or posting again, statistically it's meaningless as proof but only to describe posting trends or changes.

It's these two points that have me worried as a Chloiser/Chlarker.....it's going to be finding out what the "net" result will be to this awesome character.

Tying this back to the ratings - of all of the things that have happend to Chloe, it always tied into the Myth and the top three(Clark, Chloe, Lex - imho) in some major but positive way. This time it didn't they tried to put Lana there and then swap the investigative danger and cliffhanger Chloe-aura onto Nois. Add into the arrest of Lex being over frigging Lana, (who cares it wasn't like for the MB a just action over unethical longterm actions like oh 33.1) and finally, who cared about Clark. He flew out of the dam like a flying squirrel and Bizarro!Clark is in no way creepy or terrifying like his RedRum!Kid version, they don't even imply that underneath his hot sexy leathered model form he's still prone to rip out bloody guts or spines. So there's no fear, they are playing the same cards and suspense games and everyone is
saying 'Been there Seen that what is meaningfully NEW for the characters and their stories. We DON'T.CARE"

I just like to lurk and participate in snarking and hope for some twist spoiler to have hope again for the show. That's what Promise episode did, it killed all hope for most viewers. So the ratings reflect this and so do the boards as a slice(microcosm) of the macrocosm.

Interesting to hear this from an insider. Thanks, Craig.

I hope that means that next season there will be a mythology base. The last we saw of the F.O.S. was very, very early in the season (The Raya episode?) where its lights came on again. I too felt it was something whose absence was highly noticeable this season.

Yeah I know I voted the moment the FOS lightened up as the best cliffhanger... I just didn't knew that the cliff was the Grand Canyon!

On this show's mythology the extent of that would be:

How does Lana come back to Smallville?
Does she have a barn scene with Clark?
Does Clark mope in the barn because of Lana?
Does Lex mope in jail because of Lana?
Does Lex swear revenge and death to everything that isn't Lana?
Does Chloe use her power for Lana?
How does Lana get into trouble so that Chloe can use her power for her?
Will Clark be the one to rush Lana to Chloe's side so she can use her power for her?
Does Lionel die protecting Lana?
Does Lionel swear he'll die protecting Lana for everything she's been through because of Lex?
Does the MM reveal himself to Lana, because Lana cannot take secrets and lies?
Is the MM the new secrets and lies that Lana must know?
How many fights does the MM start between Lana and Clark because she doesn't understand him?
How many fights does Lana start with Clark because she doesn't understan why he needs Chloe in his life because now she knows everything?
How long will Clark spend cursing Lex for using Lana to get to him?
How long will Clark mope at what he has cost Lana?
How long will Clark mope about how much he has cost Lana and how he can never do anything to make it up to her?
How long will Clark mope about how he's ruined her life literally from beginning to end?
How much will Chloe rant at Clark for not telling Lana enough of the truth?
How much will Chloe rant on Clark for not putting Lana's needs before her and to stay at home in SV and take care of Lana?
How many scenes and screen time will be devoted to emphasising how angsty and tragic it is that Clark and Lana are apart?
How many scenes will there be of the both of them looking into the distance all angst ridden and tragic?
How soon will it before the MM swears that Clark is the luckiest man in the world to have a woman as wonderful as Lana?
How long will it be before the MM commends Lana on how grown up and Luthor-like she is?

IOW, we need a thread on the true mythology of Superman according to Smallville.

Obviously, it would start with Lana's birth.

While post-episode chatter is an interesting statistic to discuss, I don't think the number alone really tells us as much about what the audience thought of said episode since really bad episodes can often generate a lot of chatter as fans rant and rave about their discontent. A more meaningful statistic, I think, than the number of posts is simply asking people what they thought of it. And when we look at the TWOP grades for season 6, the episodes are ranked as follows...

A
               • 6.11 JUSTICE -- 5.26 million
A-
               • 6.15 FREAK -- 4.76 million
B+
               • 6.01 ZOD -- 4.96 million
               • 6.18 PROGENY -- 3.98 million
               • 6.19 NEMESIS -- 3.88 million
               • 6.04 ARROW -- 4.71 million
B
               • 6.05 REUNION -- 4.79 million
               • 6.10 HYDRO -- 4.68 million
               • 6.12 LABYRINTH -- 5.00 million
B-
               • 6.02 SNEEZE -- 4.52 million
               • 6.06 FALLOUT -- 5.01 million
               • 6.17 COMBAT -- 4.07 million
               • 6.20 NOIR -- 3.59 million
               • 6.22 PHANTOM -- 4.14 million
C+
               • 6.03 WITHER -- 4.88 million
               • 6.07 RAGE -- 4.47 million
               • 6.08 STATIC -- 4.70 million
               • 6.13 CRIMSON -- 4.91 million
               • 6.16 PROMISE --4.69 million
               • 6.21 PROTOTYPE -- 3.43 million
C-
               • 6.09 SUBTERRANEAN -- 4.31 million
               • 6.14 TRESPASS-- 4.74 million

In the top 6 episodes (B+ and above) the episodes are heavily mythology related, pertaining to either Zod, JLA, or 33.1. There were only 2 Chloe-centric episodes this season, and both of them were deemed to be among this season's best in terms of quality (Freak being the 2nd best overall). So while Progeny might not have generated much chatter on K-Site, the post-episode opinions indicate that it was clearly one of this season's best. OTOH, fan feedback indicates that not only were Prototype's ratings low, but even those who did tune in thought very little of the episode, ranking it down in the Stinker-Pile with the likes of Promise. I would have like to have summarized a similar list for KSite opinions, but those polls are created by the users and do not conform to any common standard. So one episode might have two options - loved it or hated it, whereas another might ask for a 1-10 ranking.

TWOP's demographic is generally Chloe-based, so it's no surprise that "Progeny" scored well here.

I'll be curious when I tally up the KryptonSite Awards finalists... what I've looked up so far, "Progeny" was pretty evenly split. I've seen a few "best episodes" but just as many if not more "worst episodes." If you're not a Chloe fan, it might not be the episode for you.

I do like Chloe, and I myself thought it was a horrible episode and a waste of Lynda Carter's talent. Maybe I'll like it better when I see it again with some time removed from it.

If you had this same poll at Sweet, though, I'm sure some of the Lana/Clana episodes, such as Promise or the finale, would rank high, where episodes like Freak, Justice, or Progeny would fall very very low.

The difference though, Craig, is that the Neilsen ratings tend to support TWoPpers' ratings (although there are exceptions) more than Sweet's ratings. I still believe that looking at the Neilsen's preliminary numbers is more accurate than looking at finals with exempt markets.

I don't really think so. Trespass was one of the highest rated episodes of the season yet that scored poorly here.

Progeny and Nemesis were low in the ratings, yet they "scored" highly at TWOP.

It feels to me just that people are pointing to this "fact" or that "fact" for "reasons why Clana sux and Chloe must be the star of the show" and it's getting really, really old.

I think the subject header's really the most accurate. It's like reading tea leaves. We'll take from it whatever we want to see from it. I personally thought "Progeny" was crap, and had no extreme issues with "Promise" or healing tears (though I hated the execution of the tears, I like the power idea), so I know I can't claim that I am free of bias.

It's ranked ninth among the episodes and caused a little ratings "valley" in the post-Justice winning streak. (The ratings dropped down from "Crimson" the week before, and rose again for "Freak" a week later.) It may have been a victim of truthful advertising: even the Lana fans were uninterested in seeing another Lana-gets-stalked episode. It screamed "filler".


Casualities of the Post-Promise slump, alas, along with the very fun "Noir." (And "Nemesis" & "Noir" seem to be generally quite popular, among fans of all 'ships and stripes.)

That's why I added "although there are exceptions". Sweet hated "Justice" because there was no Clana/Lana. They were sure that "Promise" was going to bring ratings higher than "Justice" and it didn't. If you compare TWoP ratings versus Sweet I'm pretty sure TWoP would be more in line with Neilsens. Btw, I'm not arguing Chloe = ratings. But I believe that Clana and Clexana did nothing to bring the ratings up.

ETA: I agree, Durq.

Well, the ratings for Trespass *dipped* compaired to the fast nationals on either side of it, it's demos dropped, and the opinion of it was pretty shoddy. And people weren't looking forward to another Lana-stalker ep going into it. I don't think that's all happenstance that people weren't interested, ratings dipped comparitively, and people didn't like it. Before the plummet, it wasn't one of the winners of the year - it just benefits from the mass exodus of people.



And yet brought in the demos, which are key.



Yup. Good episodes do that. :)



It didn't at all, it was in the bottom 25% when it aired and started the massive drop.



Especially as more people vote to rank or rate the episodes than are regular names on this forum.

Criag, are you arguing that Promise was not an issue on the ratings?

I agree that no specific ship has a dramatic effect on the ratings. Clexana, OTOH, managed to annoy members of every fan group.Like nzs said, it was not rated well compared to other pre-Promise episodes. You could argue Subterrerean was a fairly successful episode if you compare its ratings to Noiror Prototype.As was everything that followed Promise, a little more each week, until Phantom.

Anyone want to bet what lesson Al and Miles took from this? "Fans want good story arcs, more Clark and logical character development" or "More Lana!!!"?

I will like to ask if all of us rate episodes I admit that I barely ever rate the only one I did rated was Justice because I though it was worth it to sent a messages about what the show should be about (Chlark working as a team, heroism, evil Lex and Bizalo crying :D) but even as a Chloiser I didn't bothered to rate Progeny or Freak or not even to dump Promise. So maybe the voters and forum members are two different demographics.

Having taken a statistics then in addition a research and survey study college course (which I'd think some on this board also have), I haven't really heard yet a fully scientific reasoning or gathering of data or full laying out of the affecting variables in any of this. I'd only trust a scientific abstract or full article from a sociology research abstract.

But there is one glaringly obvious change in numbers pre-Promise and post-Promise. It is hard to point to the one overall guilty arc, character(s) or 'ship, but it CAN be said in general that a certain balanced mix and high focus on the core stated theme of the show(Clark/Lex relation(friend)ship) and it's main character's hero development seems to garner the highest ratings on average compared to other episodes and that even during sudden consistent downswings in ratings, shows that follow that same pattern of balanced mix and core high focus on the main character myth have also returned higher ratings.

No matter how much we would like to guess online fanship relevance vs the TV viewing whole or norm, I would never use numbers gleaned from such a pitiful sample number from a forum or two as proof of anything, more like a sign to then do more detailed research using the Niesen and other higher wider sampling/categorized data to bolster or (dis)prove a hypothesis.

I thought I'd go ahead and add my opinion on this debate, but first I thought I'd take a stab at sorting and ordering it. One side appears to be arguing that the ratings drop post-"Promise" was due to bad storytelling and point to the bad reactions to "Promise" posted in these fora and others, while the other side appears to be responding that it was due to the fact that ratings tend to drop in spring, and point to the fact that ratings were down for a number of shows this spring, and that Smallville was facing stiff competition from Are You Smarter....

Now, my take on all this is that, obviously, when analyzing why almost 1.3 million people decided to stop watching between "Promise" and "Prototype," or why about 700,000 of those people did decide to watch "Phantom," there's not likely to be any one single reason. There are, however, a few conclusions I feel pretty comfortable with. The first is that, since only one week passed between "Promise" and "Combat," neither a change in the weather nor any generalized spring slump can account for the loss of 600,000 viewers. It's pretty clear that those viewers left because they were unhappy with "Promise." Moreover, it's worth noting that, of the 1.3 million who left, 600,000 did not come back for the finale, and my guess is that that's largely the same 600,000.

The second conclusion I feel quite comfortable with is that, given the four-week hiatus and the abysmal promotion "Progeny" received, the fact that about 100,000 viewers left between "Combat" and "Progeny" in no way reflects upon the quality of either episode. Likewise, the loss of another 100,000 a week later for "Nemesis" does not, in my view, really signify anything other than random fluctuation.

The more significant drops of about 300,000 and then 200,000 that happened in the succeeding two weeks are harder to account for. Did viewer dissatisfaction play a role? Probably. Did springtime also play a role? Again, probably. What the role of each was, I think it's impossible to know with the data we have.

So my conclusion is ultimately that about half of the post-"Promise" ratings drop was due, incontrovertibly, to viewer unhappiness with "Promise," and that, moreover, it is in all likelihood that half of the lost viewers who did return for the finale. My prognosis, based upon my belief that show-quality is ultimately decisive, is that, barring a major course-correction this fall, the 700,000 who came back for "Phantom" will leave again quite quickly, nor will they be alone.

Something that might eventually help shed light on this debate might be DVD sales. If people are really disgusted enough with the show to tune out permanently, they're unlikely to buy the DVD set, either (of course, since the DVDs don't go on sale till September, a "major course-correction" might impact DVD sales). I wonder if there's any way to tell, after the first month or so, how well the DVD set is selling compared to its predecessors?

I don't know that DVD sales will really change. Season 4 at the time was pretty universally panned by the fandom yet that DVD set was one of the best selling as far as I know. Sometimes people buy a DVD of a season even if they believe it to be a weaker season (I know I have, at least).

Nor do I. There's no way of knowing in advance. But I have seen plenty of online fans say they don't intend to buy this season's DVD sets, so it would be interesting to know the sales figures, IF there's some reliable way of discovering them.



Very true. But there's a difference between a "weaker season" and a season that actually succeeds in driving a large chunk of the viewing audience away permanently. The question we're debating essentially seems to be whether this season has actually driven off a significant percentage of viewers for good or not. If it has, I'd expect that to be reflected in lower DVD sales. If people keep buying the DVDs at the same rate, that's an indication that viewers haven't gone away permanently, and that most of the audience at least still holds out hope that the show will improve next season.

Given that some people missed a lot of episodes this season (because of preemption, competition from other shows in the same demo, lack of promotion), wouldn't it follow that some non-hardcore fans would be MORE likely to buy the DVD?